Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

sloanreview.mit.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 322 posts

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#51

Post by Invictus0 »

kristianc wrote: post #35
bwb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

> Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. This is kind of one of those ‘Hindsight is 20-20’ things. During the good times, building resilience means buying extra capacity that you do not need, and answering awkward questions about empty wards and hospital beds. In good times, the demand from the people is that every dollar is spent well, which is usually defined as meeting demand i…

This has been discussed many times, but the united states previously had a highly qualified pandemic response team which could have taken action as early as January based on the intelligence coming out of China. The reality is that thousands of deaths could have been prevented without building extra beds and buildings, but no action was taken because our elected officials do not understand exponential growth.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#52

Post by garraeth »

rwmj wrote: post #50
drocer88 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of folks are going to take the traditional advice of having 6 months of living expenses in emergency savings seriously this time.

How? Many people are paid week to week and have just enough to get by.

I think the op is suggesting people will consider this once they are again financially stable (assuming they get to that point).

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#53

Post by jointpdf »

jointpdf wrote: post #25
rwmj wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For many people outside the highly paid HN reading bubble that's a huge windfall.

It’s really not. Even in a low cost of living area, $1.2K is about one month of basic living expenses.

Re: rwmj

I used to do taxes for extremely poor (need that money for basic expenses like feeding their kids.

I can guarantee you these same folks—and the millions that suddenly lost their jobs—are not looking at a $1200 check and thinking, “sweet, 6 months of weed money!”.

But yeah, I’m “thinking about it wrong”.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#54

Post by xwdv »

IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier.

People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting trashed from so much traffic are getting a reprieve. People take joy in simple mundane things like boiling some tea or tending to some house plants instead of enduring a miserable struggle chasing their wildest ambitions fueled by what they see on social media. People who work from home or remote are no longer second class citizens, they are now first class citizens just like everyone else who is also working from home. And a result of this, I find people are more tolerable, and I even find myself caring more about the plight of homeless people, because these are the times when one really needs a home more than ever.

Not every business can survive this, but most can if they are built with the assumption that this is the new normal. That’s how you protect yourself.

Fuck man, this is a way better world, and frankly I’m not sure I really want to go back to what we used to have. I actually get depressed thinking this will all go away and I’ll never experience anything like this again in my life. I hope the pandemic lasts long enough to make some of these things permanent.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#55

Post by frosted-flakes »

twelve40 wrote: post #43
JackFr wrote: post #9

The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

It also occurred during World War I. That changes the situation somewhat.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#56

Post by briandear »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #41
sremani wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Global Pandemic is NOT A BLACK SWAN. As matter of FACT, it was predicted by Taleb and according to him it is a WHITE SWAN. The true problem here is the so called Risk "experts" do not understand Risk, and that is the core problem.

The CDC had a pandemic team, they were let go. California had a reserve of ventilators, which were liquidated due to “budget reasons”. The problem isn’t risk experts; the problem is that government representatives elected have no domain expertise nor leadership fortitude to put domain experts into the driver’s seat when the situation dictates. China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STE…

> The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go.

Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts?

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud...

> China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians.

You don't know anything about China's leadership. They're all politicians. Not a decision gets made without it being vetted ideologically -- ideology always comes first. And we should look at the timelines from China before saying they "got it right."[1]

[1] https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devas...

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#57

Post by Invictus0 »

tarr11 wrote: post #26
david_w wrote: post #19

From the article: "The first is that it overlooks the negative impacts on consumer sentiment and spending, which are likely to persist for many months, if not years. " Yeah, right. Citation needed. My to-buy list of pent-up demands grows longer by the hour.

They are not talking about electronics or haircuts. For example, many people have vowed never to step on a cruise ship after this and attending large scale events in person will probably give a lot of people anxiety for some time.

People said the same thing after Costa Concordia. These people were never going to take a cruise in the first place.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#58

Post by cryoshon »

frockington1 wrote: post #2

The articles states as fact there will be negative impacts on long term consumer sentiment and spending without really providing any evidence. Most Americans are about to receive a $1200 check and unemployment benefits that pay more than their job did for the next 6 months. I don't think consumer spending is going anywhere soon.

$1200 is barely enough for one month for most people. for a lot of urbanites, that check will get eaten by rent more or less immediately. if not this month's rent, next' month's rent, and so on. if not rent, then food. or healthcare. or essential utilities, or car payments.

when things get tough and there is scarcity, people save more and spend less. as far as the unemployment benefits go, i think most people will still be very reluctant to spend on anything other than staples until they have a sustainable way of generating income that isn't dependant on a government program.

many of today's workers remember the duration of the unemployment benefits offered during the great recession -- and they remember for how many years economic conditions were difficult long after those benefits ended, even including the extension programs. everyone sees that there is a substantial chance of an extended and deep COVID depression which might dwarf the great depression and will certainly dwarf the great recession. you're not going to convince people to spend money in that environment.

plus, most of the things people would usually spend on are either explicitly off-limits or unlikely to be purchased in the current situation.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#59

Post by bumby »

sremani wrote: post #21
bwb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done wi…

A Global Pandemic is NOT A BLACK SWAN. As matter of FACT, it was predicted by Taleb and according to him it is a WHITE SWAN. The true problem here is the so called Risk "experts" do not understand Risk, and that is the core problem.

I think the problem is how we look at risk in the context of our cognitive biases.

Although given a long enough timeline a pandemic is all but guaranteed, on a annual or election cycle it scores pretty low on the probability scale. Our gauge of the severity may have been misrepresented due to the once-in-a-century nature of this event.

Juxtapose that with issues that people face in the immediate term like budget shortfalls, service disruptions creating disgruntled electorates, etc. I think it's easy for powers-to-be to convince themselves to gut preparations for a pandemic in favor of more 'guaranteed-to-happen' short term crises. Combining poor risk assessments with a recency bias can incentivize these kinds of decisions.

Post reply on HN