How much of this is temporary and how much will be long term? Also how does the stimulus help here?
Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
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Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#72Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…
What will the employees, in the US at least, do for health insurance? A pandemic is when you need it. These employees will be strained to pay for COBRA. I fear that we will see revolutions in countries where this is not contained, from either a health or economic perspective. An old saying is that you should buy stocks when there is blood in the streets. I hope that doesn't become literal.
I don’t wish a bad outcome but if it happens, hopefully people realize we need a different system for healthcare.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm also hearing this morning that we've hit the 10% mark. I also heard the same economist say "The economy is collapsing, and it's a global collapse". I don't even need coffee to be alert the rest of the day...
Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?
"Forecasting is hard, especially when it's about the future"
Whether or not you need ammo probably depends on where you live... but I'd stock up on non-perishables and necessities if you can afford it.
Not sure you need vodka at all, but I think that's a matter of personal preference. I'm actually trying to be as healthy and fit as possible to fight the weirdness that is self-isolation and to be ready for the virus when it inevitably comes (if 80% of us really are going to be infected...)
Am also hearing PE funds are forecasting anything between "18 months until we're back to normal" to "it will never be the same"..
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits.... Not true. The unemployment benefits have also been augmented by up to $600/week above state unemployment benefits. This amount applies even if your state benefits have been exhausted. The $1200 is an extra stimulus check for people whether or not they’re still employed. Not to be confused with the unemploymen…
Yes, the federal government is providing more stimulus juice (one time cash payment and unemployment top up), but no, it is absolutely not going to be enough for the economic challenge we're facing.
You say that with such conviction when you don't have any better info on what the future holds than anyone else.
The unemployment benefits (which for many of the unemployed will actually be higher than their regular pay) last for the next four months. If the quarantine lifts by the end of May and businesses reopen then it will be enough. Obviously that's a big if, but for you to come out here and act like you know something with 100% certainty is absurd.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#75Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…
While the benefits amount to something small for cities... they've largely been the ones hit the hardest. NYC residents are more or less being ignored in these stimulus packages.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#76Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…
The risk is that the economy might behave like any complex machine, or the electric grid: once it’s turned off, it might take a really complicated sequence of steps to turn it back on again. And unlike machines, nobody knows that sequence for the economy.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#77Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…
That's assuming that 1) the said business will still be around after the lockdown (after 2-6 months without revenues), and 2) consumers will not have changed behavior, and I am concerned that people who spent several months watching the economy collapse, and wondering how long before they get laid off, will not start consuming like if there was no tomorrow when the lockdown ends.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm also hearing this morning that we've hit the 10% mark. I also heard the same economist say "The economy is collapsing, and it's a global collapse". I don't even need coffee to be alert the rest of the day...
Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?
Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death.
COVID-19 isn't going to destroy any of our infrastructure, and if we mobilize properly, isn't going to kill nearly as many people. If our [great-]grandparents made it through WWII, there's no reason we can't make it through this.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#79The odd thing to me about it is that futures seem largely positive. Is it because the CAREs act or dropped labor is supposed to equal money not spent and thus meant to shield companies ( and investors )? I honestly do not get how market interprets it as good news.
Not necessarily interpreted as "good news", probably more like "already priced in".
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#80Expected 3M. This new figure is about 10x financial crisis high.
And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits....
And you want us to believe it will be okay if the government just "does something"? When will people quit turning to the federal government to solve their problems and take responsibility for themselves? Everyone ought to make his own decision whether to stay home or go to work and deal with the consequences accordingly.