Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
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Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#2Building on my analysis from last week:
1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce.
2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks.
3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental jobless claims = ~6%). That number is likely low and continuing to increase, as new jobless claims do not account for gig workers and many state unemployment sites have been inundated by these claims resulting in site crashes and people unable to file claims. In addition, layoffs have almost certainly continued between 3/28 and today.
4. The consensus estimate for this week's jobless claims was ~3.76M jobless claims, and the 6.6M actual claims blow the consensus estimate out of the water. That said, some analysts such as Goldman Sachs had estimated ~5.5M joblesss claims. Goldman Sachs estimates that unemployment will peak at ~15%. [2]
[1] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-update-goldman-s...
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#3Expected 3M. This new figure is about 10x financial crisis high.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#4Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…
The forecasted unemployment rate is weird: economists are not forecasting a major increase for April 03s release. Do you happen to know why?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#5Expected 3M. This new figure is about 10x financial crisis high.
And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits....
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#6Expected 3M. This new figure is about 10x financial crisis high.
And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits....
Yeah... $1,200 advanced from next years tax return nonetheless. Normative economics (how should things be allocated equitably) are frowned upon, but it’s clear that our system needs to be refactored. The fact that Bernie Sanders has only a 1% chance of winning the primaries show the severe disconnect between what we want and what we need.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#7Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…
The forecasted unemployment rate is weird: economists are not forecasting a major increase for April 03s release. Do you happen to know why? https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
April unemployment is probably only measured mid-March, so it predates all these claims.
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits....
Yeah... $1,200 advanced from next years tax return nonetheless. Normative economics (how should things be allocated equitably) are frowned upon, but it’s clear that our system needs to be refactored. The fact that Bernie Sanders has only a 1% chance of winning the primaries show the severe disconnect between what we want and what we need.
I have heard people say that it was an advance but found conflicting info, can you source?
Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
#9My job has been inundated with applications from people who are not even in tech in any way (think like barbers & home depot workers). I see now why so many companies use automation to filter out resumes.