71–80 of 157 posts
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Yet China is a global superpower and shut off from immigration
They are not so shut-off to immigration as it is commonly imagined. Also we might argue that the Chinese "self-migrate" with a huge amount of students that go for studies outside China but return later.
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How is Japan a cautionary tale? They're one of the most (the most?) developed countries on earth, enjoy one of the highest standards of living and economically punch well above their weight (based on population and access to resources). I don't see where the problem is... The vast majority of countries, even many western countries only wish they had Japan's 'problems'.
Their demographics are horrific. More diapers are sold to adults than babies. People are worked to the bone to support the needs of a massive elderly population. Japan does a lot of things exceedingly well but demographics are one of those forces of history that are dammed near impossible to mitigate or circumvent without enormous cost, like trying to stop a train with your fist. EDIT: Just to be clear, my point is a…
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Except the US has been pretty open to immigration for the last 250 years, while Japan is 98% Japanese.
US has been pretty open to immigration at some points, and relatively closed at others. For the most of last 250 years, it has been mostly closed to non-white immigration, for example. With the exception of black Americans, the current racial and ethnic diversity in the US is a rather recent phenomenon.
Japan is a pretty good cautionary tale for Britain (and to a lesser extent to the US) on how shutting yourself off from immigration tends to go. Japan was expected to become the next global superpower in the 1980s, and instead has seen closing in on three lost decades. It’s only now trying to catch up, politically, culturally and economically.
How is Japan a cautionary tale? They're one of the most (the most?) developed countries on earth, enjoy one of the highest standards of living and economically punch well above their weight (based on population and access to resources). I don't see where the problem is... The vast majority of countries, even many western countries only wish they had Japan's 'problems'.
While Japanese economic progress postwar was astonishing, it was entirely premised on them having favored status in the region. Few people know, for example, that the US forced Korea to purchase massive amounts of goods from Japan to rebuild its economy, essentially reinstating their former colonial relationship and stoking tensions that culminated in the Korean War.
Japan is a cautionary take because it was entirely too dependent on using its favored status in American geopolitics to throw its weight around Asia-Pacific, as opposed to building meaningful, trade and immigration agreements with other countries in the regions. Now that US dominance is in retreat and the Chinese ascendant, they’re in a poor overall economic position to counter them.
Japan is a pretty good cautionary tale for Britain (and to a lesser extent to the US) on how shutting yourself off from immigration tends to go. Japan was expected to become the next global superpower in the 1980s, and instead has seen closing in on three lost decades. It’s only now trying to catch up, politically, culturally and economically.
The US has the most immigrants than any other country by almost 5x at 48 million.
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> I get the argument that someone who doesn't speak your language doesn't participate fully in your culture either, but I guess I'm still not sure why I should be upset about that. Societal harmony matters. It's why universal healthcare exists. It's why welfare exists. It's why affirmative action exists. Why countries spend money integrating immigrants. Everything that helps out poorer people is done with societal ha…
> Countries exist that have dozens of languages and tribes. They usually have endless social problems, unrest, civil wars and often break up. Oh yeah, the history of the Swiss in the context of Europe is just non-stop insanity and violence. If only they could aspire to be more monocultural and peaceful, like their neighbors, the Germans...
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I'm not sure why you believe the similarity ends there. The Japanese person would likely do the same thing I do if I need a cabinet made-- hire someone with that skill to do the job. Eventually that might stop making economic sense and they might decide to cut out the middleman, but again-- I'm not sure why I should be irritated either way.
It's probably not what's going to happen though, instead that person is going to work preferentially with people who speak their language because even if hiring a translator to work full-time was an option (and it generally wouldn't be because hiring a good translator full time would be ridiculously expensive for most companies) it would be a major pain in the ass to have to translate everything all the time. A few y…
Returning to the first point, we've had a lot of non-english-speaking immigrants over the years and no plausible threat to the primacy of English in the US. Shouldn't that be reason to think "maybe the thing I fear won't happen"?
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Their demographics are horrific. More diapers are sold to adults than babies. People are worked to the bone to support the needs of a massive elderly population. Japan does a lot of things exceedingly well but demographics are one of those forces of history that are dammed near impossible to mitigate or circumvent without enormous cost, like trying to stop a train with your fist. EDIT: Just to be clear, my point is a…
The Japanese are just the first country to tackle the demographic transition without gambling their entire culture and country on mass immigration. We don't know yet whether it's a bad bet. In favor of their approach: 1) the demographic transition will pass (since fertility is heritable), 2) increasing automation will probably reduce the demand for labor, 3) meanwhile life is still good for Japanese people.
Citation needed. Sure fertility is well correlated with educational attainment which is likely somewhat "heritable" by proxy (social class, intelligence, lack of disabilities) but that doesn't mean the heritable effect will be large enough in aggregate.