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The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

economist.com

71–80 of 236 posts

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#71
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there are plenty of short sellers who would benefit from FB’s plummeting stock This is a weird meme that’s cropped up in tech circles over the past few years. It’s misleading and incorrect. No short selling fund sells short and then secretly seeds negative PR pieces. If you’re short, your argument is always strengthened by disclosing you put your money behind your words. Short sellers hire private investigators, co…

How can you be sure about this? Disclosing the existence of a short makes people doubt the bias in every piece of information you bring up. Keeping a position secret might be more effective than disclosing. I know when I watched that Herbalife documentary I assumed the whole thing was paid for by Ackman and therefore of dubious credibility.

> How can you be sure about this?

It’s not a hard and fast rule. Just one enforced by economic interests.

> when I watched that Herbalife documentary I assumed the whole thing was paid for by Ackman and therefore of dubious credibility

You aren’t the target. Current shareholders are. Short-seller messaging is almost always primarily aimed at current long holders. (Since short sellers depend on long holders as a source for borrowed shares, a relationship which isn’t reciprocated in long holders needing short interest to make their investments work, inducing more shorts isn’t a feasible strategy.) The message shows bias from the position, but as an investor, someone betting on their message is more material than the bias. They decided, after all, to bet on the message before they themselves were biased.

(When long holders aren’t the target, regulators are. This was the Herbalife strategy. In those cases, too, a broad PR strategy is too expensive relative to the desired results.)

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#72

I know of a few people turning off IG and FB due to the volume of ads, when WhatsApp is monetized lots will do the same. Competitors can offer a similar experience to IG, WA and FB with less ads, because the margins are so massive for FB now, and their products are relatively easily replicated. It's VERY easy for user to switch to a competitor compared with other industries. The scale of the network is hard to achiev…

Does that mean that the valuation of new companies in this space would be reduced once it becomes clear that the whole market is cyclical and by monetizing you start to kill your product?

Yes, I think that is the case. New social networks add very little value nowadays, which is a long term indicator that the will not continue to grow in value in the way they have so far. Personally I would not invest in the long term with FB.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#73
post #7

There is obviously in human nature to communicate with others, and share whatever they think is good, while maintaining a certain level of privacy. In real life, this is already happening and it works. However, this must not be captured by an entity who's sole target is profit, neither a state owned entity. Both will hamper the communication at some point, either by manipulating or censoring information. My only hope…

>However, this must not be captured by an entity who's sole target is profit, neither a state owned entity.

>My only hope is that a benevolent AI will coordinate this, having prime directives not to harm humans ( by the means of interfering with the communication ).

It would have to be some kind of public infrastructure, if you want to avoid the profit motivation. I don't see how an AI would solve this.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#75
This seems implausible precisely because it’s the crowded view. But can anyone recall a time that the crowd correctly predicted the ascent of an unpopular product or the descent of a popular one? I’m old enough to remember Yahoo’s rise and fall. There was a time people thought Zuckerberg was a greedy fool for turning down a $1 billion bid from Yahoo. Oh yeah did we forget about that?

Yahoo failed because they were out-innovated. They weren’t the only ones. Lots of highly successful search engines got their lunch eaten by Google. Yahoo also suffered from a lack of leadership and some very poorly conceived acquisitions.

I don’t see any of that with Facebook. In fact it’s the opposite- people are uneasy with how effectively they’ve acquired users and their data and monetized it.

Further, they’ve pretty much only made incredibly savvy acquisitions and managed their integration into the Facebook ecosystem masterfully. Instagram not only exists today but has quickly become arguably the most valuable property. What about Tumblr? Flickr?

Say what you will about the ethics of the company but Facebook has demonstrated they have vision and the ability to execute and adapt. Yahoo didn’t. Most companies don’t. They have their existing business and customers and exist as long as the winds don’t change.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#76
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They turned down buying Google. Zuck smartly buys his competitors.

Actually isn't buying competitors a bad thing from the Anti-Trust point of view? If you own all the social networks and then refuse to let Influencers to share their post stats with their clients because "Facebook is not in the value chain" it really seems like it really becomes a real Anti-Trust issue. If you only own one, you can always claim there is competition.

> Actually isn't buying competitors a bad thing from the Anti-Trust point of view?

Anti-trust legislation is scarcely enforced these days. No matter if in the US or Europe.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

The people who should on Facebook aren't there any more - the young and the influential You can't grow with an audience base filled with 50 year olds.

They are using Instagram instead which is also owned by Facebook.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#78
post #7

There is obviously in human nature to communicate with others, and share whatever they think is good, while maintaining a certain level of privacy. In real life, this is already happening and it works. However, this must not be captured by an entity who's sole target is profit, neither a state owned entity. Both will hamper the communication at some point, either by manipulating or censoring information. My only hope…

> My only hope is that a benevolent AI will coordinate this, having prime directives not to harm humans ( by the means of interfering with the communication ).

Mmm...who's going to write that benevolent AI? :)

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#79

Facebook is dead. It's just taking a long time for this to become apparent.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

Is that with or without the bots?

It wouldn’t surprise me if the real number was under a billion. Which is still a big number but it means growth was over along time ago.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#80
post #75

This seems implausible precisely because it’s the crowded view. But can anyone recall a time that the crowd correctly predicted the ascent of an unpopular product or the descent of a popular one? I’m old enough to remember Yahoo’s rise and fall. There was a time people thought Zuckerberg was a greedy fool for turning down a $1 billion bid from Yahoo. Oh yeah did we forget about that? Yahoo failed because they were ou…

>This seems implausible precisely because it’s the crowded view

I don't think that a company's success is based on the views of the outsiders. This is like picking B instead of C in a multiple choice test because there were to many questions with the answer C.

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