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The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

economist.com

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Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#51

Post by dspillett »

throwaway2048 wrote: post #39
cenal wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They turned down buying Google. Zuck smartly buys his competitors.

Yahoo bought plenty of other "next big things" Geocities, tumblr, flikr, viaweb, Broadcast.com, del.icio.us, zimbra, and hundreds of others besides. It wasn't clear at the time Google would be any kind of success, you are looking at things with hindsight.

A key problem with some of Yahoo's acquisitions is that they missed the right point of the curve: buying things once they were already Quite A Thing. While this may look like a safer gamble than buying something small that might be a thing and the next big thing eventually, but might be nothing at all next month, getting in late can have two key problems: already being a thing means it commands a high price, and you already have an invested user-base who may fight tooth-and-nail (or simply leave) when you inevitably make changes.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#52

Post by metildaa »

hrktb wrote: post #49
sytelus wrote: post #40

In all likelyhood this is a “submarine” article crafted by a PR firm like Definers for a hit job on Facebook: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18511963 There are plenty of short sellers who would benefit from FB’s plummeting stock. In reality, FB’s DAU/MAU are largely unchanged. The stories that young people “deleted Facebook” were downright falsehood. There is simply no viable competition for Facebook in market…

> There is simply no viable competition for Facebook in market right now like what Yahoo had in terms of Google. I don’t know if it’s your argument for the decline of facebook being false, but it doesn’t have to come from competition or viable alternatives. People stopping doing something happens all the time, companies going down because of decreasing interest in their service is a normal thing.

None of the people my age that I spent this past evening with (barring my own brother) were still using facebook. An account exists for all of us, but when its gone months or years without use, and there is no Facebook app on your phone, I'd say that user is lost.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#53

Post by johnnyfaehell »

sksksk wrote: post #34
thijsvandien wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is WhatsApp “improved” by reducing privacy and adding ads?

End to end encryption was added after the aquisition.

While true, I am not really believing Facebook had anything to do directly with that happening. It seems like the entire industry was moving that direction and WhatsApp would've always had to implement it.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#54

Post by fabricexpert »

I know of a few people turning off IG and FB due to the volume of ads, when WhatsApp is monetized lots will do the same. Competitors can offer a similar experience to IG, WA and FB with less ads, because the margins are so massive for FB now, and their products are relatively easily replicated. It's VERY easy for user to switch to a competitor compared with other industries. The scale of the network is hard to achieve but we've seen this done a few times before so I don't see why it won't happen again.

I predict that FB will continue to push ads for short term profitability, slowly leak active users and find that a bunch of competitors will beat them by accepting a lower margin than FB are willing to accept.

The main hope for FB is that they can identify and acquire these competitors before they get a large enough network to take them out.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#55

Post by SCdF »

TekMol wrote: post #48
SCdF wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that's closer, but it's still not that useful, because it doesn't actually capture how people use the software and whether that's changing. People communicate with me via FB messenger, and I respond to them. Otherwise I don't use the app. Am I an active user? Once a day I open it, realise it's shit and vacuous, and importantly my SIL (the only person I still use it to keep up with) hasn't made any useful update…

Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes

That is a very nicely formatted response.

It--- at least to me--- proves my point that active user is not a useful metric, as all of those people have very different values and drive growth (or don't) in very different ways, and so have no use being clumped together.

We didn't even get to talk about differing user demographics or time, data by country, trends inside countries etc.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#56

Post by metildaa »

TekMol wrote: post #48
SCdF wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that's closer, but it's still not that useful, because it doesn't actually capture how people use the software and whether that's changing. People communicate with me via FB messenger, and I respond to them. Otherwise I don't use the app. Am I an active user? Once a day I open it, realise it's shit and vacuous, and importantly my SIL (the only person I still use it to keep up with) hasn't made any useful update…

Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes Am I an active user? Yes

Pretty sure OP is a passive user, and is extremely susceptible to better tools for OP's needs coming along, eg: the current crop of buy/sell/trade apps/PWAs out there.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#57

Post by johnnyfaehell »

cenal wrote: post #32
tokai wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Zuckerberg knows they need to create or acquire the next big thing to make it in the long Isn't that exactly what yahoo did?

They turned down buying Google. Zuck smartly buys his competitors.

Actually isn't buying competitors a bad thing from the Anti-Trust point of view? If you own all the social networks and then refuse to let Influencers to share their post stats with their clients because "Facebook is not in the value chain" it really seems like it really becomes a real Anti-Trust issue. If you only own one, you can always claim there is competition.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#58

Post by arethuza »

fabricexpert wrote: post #54

I know of a few people turning off IG and FB due to the volume of ads, when WhatsApp is monetized lots will do the same. Competitors can offer a similar experience to IG, WA and FB with less ads, because the margins are so massive for FB now, and their products are relatively easily replicated. It's VERY easy for user to switch to a competitor compared with other industries. The scale of the network is hard to achiev…

Does that mean that the valuation of new companies in this space would be reduced once it becomes clear that the whole market is cyclical and by monetizing you start to kill your product?

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#59

Post by gomox »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41
sytelus wrote: post #40

In all likelyhood this is a “submarine” article crafted by a PR firm like Definers for a hit job on Facebook: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18511963 There are plenty of short sellers who would benefit from FB’s plummeting stock. In reality, FB’s DAU/MAU are largely unchanged. The stories that young people “deleted Facebook” were downright falsehood. There is simply no viable competition for Facebook in market…

> there are plenty of short sellers who would benefit from FB’s plummeting stock This is a weird meme that’s cropped up in tech circles over the past few years. It’s misleading and incorrect. No short selling fund sells short and then secretly seeds negative PR pieces. If you’re short, your argument is always strengthened by disclosing you put your money behind your words. Short sellers hire private investigators, co…

How can you be sure about this?

Disclosing the existence of a short makes people doubt the bias in every piece of information you bring up.

Keeping a position secret might be more effective than disclosing. I know when I watched that Herbalife documentary I assumed the whole thing was paid for by Ackman and therefore of dubious credibility.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#60

Post by chewz »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #30

Being compared to the tobacco giants is one of the business world’s more toxic insults, but it is not the only unflattering analogy circulating. A lower blow is the suggestion that Facebook may become like Yahoo, the once high-flying internet firm that plunged. The article is by The Economists, but I tend think the societal costs outweigh the financial to shareholders and employees.

There is more to analogy with big tobacco. Facebook is used exactly ina way that cigarretes are used. People at work or during commute look at Facebook instead of taking a cigarette break. And then they go back after their business.

As more and more democracies realize that Facebook and the likes are toxic for them [1] (democracy is people taking informed decisions not 'engaged' decisions) Facebook will get regulated just as smoking. Which means banned.

And people will move on to healthier alternatives. And Zuck will probably end in jail or under heavy litigation for beeing complicit in so many crimes. This is just beggining now.

[1] - funny that Russia and China realized what Facebook really is right away years ago and banned it or used to their advantage. But to 'free' countries it is always profit above social consequences.

As Lenin remarked - 'Capitalists themselves will sell to us ropes that we will hang them on'

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