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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#71

Post by calinet6 »

grecy wrote: post #59
calinet6 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One cannot will anything one wants into existence. At some point, he'll need to understand how to design an effective large-scale manufacturing system, and not simply yell for one. Specifically, he should actually learn some things about managing people, and the place that has in producing quality at volume at speed. It's sad, because that's exactly the lesson Toyota was trying to teach at NUMMI, and their legacy has…

> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that…

First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering.

That said, I think he'll get it done, but it's still arrogant (and inefficient) to take all of the learnings of manufacturing and management of the past 30 years and try to "start fresh."

It's a waste. It's a waste of money, a waste of time, a waste of human capital and life and happiness. He's expending energy to learn things we've already learned.

That's the sad part. I'm sure he'll get it done, but at what cost? At what despair and unnecessary strife? And at what level of waste and inefficiency.

Sure, you'll say, necessity is the mother of invention, and new knowledge and innovation will come out of this struggle—but how can we know even more could not be done in a better process? We can't, and this naysaying will go by the wayside. As perhaps it should.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#72

Post by ericb »

grecy wrote: post #59
calinet6 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One cannot will anything one wants into existence. At some point, he'll need to understand how to design an effective large-scale manufacturing system, and not simply yell for one. Specifically, he should actually learn some things about managing people, and the place that has in producing quality at volume at speed. It's sad, because that's exactly the lesson Toyota was trying to teach at NUMMI, and their legacy has…

> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that…

Then he willed it to land standing up. On a barge. In the ocean.

And an assembly line. In a tent. From a bunch of scraps.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#73

Post by donarb »

aphextron wrote: post #31
chrisper wrote: post #4

Does quality match the quantity here? I remember Tesla having lots of quality issues (misaligned doors etc)

Given that half of those 5000 are being produced in a tent in the parking lot with summer heat and no AC, I can only imagine.

Along with blowing dust, pollen, birds, rodents, etc. Factories don't need to be clean roomed like they do for computer chips, but you'd think it would be closed to the outside elements.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#74

Post by calinet6 »

setquk wrote: post #64
grecy wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that…

Yep. He delivers. People are too obsessed about when. Shits’s complicated.

Not so worried about when, there's no rush. It's just a shame to see the chaos where there doesn't have to be, that's all.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#76

Post by jacobkranz »

grecy wrote: post #61
isoprophlex wrote: post #2

That's impressive. I've read a great many analyses stating Musk'll never succeed in his model 3 ramp up. Let's hope he keeps this up in the coming months. It's a long way to 450.000 vehicles...

This means they're now making about 7,000 vehicles total per week (S+X+3), which means they'll make more vehicles in the next 12 months than they have made in the previous 10 years. I'd say they're ramping pretty fast! EDIT: 7,000 per week, not per month, thanks below.

7,000 vehicles per week

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#77

Post by atomical »

setquk wrote: post #64
grecy wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that…

Yep. He delivers. People are too obsessed about when. Shits’s complicated.

For shareholders and customers that makes sense. For everyone else not so much. There are a lot of people in the everyone else column who are happy to see an entrepreneur take risks.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#78

Post by abledon »

JUDAS wrote: post #11

Musk has said to appear on Rogan's podcast when production of model 3 hits 5k/w. https://jrelibrary.com/upcoming-guests/ https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1005924723983675392?lang...

That will be one of the most entertaining conversations. I love how chill the atmosphere is on that show.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#79

Post by empath75 »

colordrops wrote: post #45
pwinnski wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The skepticism is simple: Musk has a history of making schedule pronouncements that fall through. He predicted they'd hit this milestone last year, and they didn't. In fact, he predicted they'd be far beyond this milestone by now, and they aren't. And he really, really, really hates it when people point how his broken promises and failed claims, so it's reasonable to expect he might be trying to play with some smoke…

Skepticism of hitting goals by certain dates are fair. But you are conflating skepticism of promises of meeting milestones with the ability to execute at all. They met the 5000 car a week goal. There was no promise of a date for a consistent 5000 cars a week. Is your claim that you are skeptical that they can ever hit a regular 5000 cars a week?

I am skeptical that they’ll get to it before they run out of money.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#80

Post by make3 »

stingraycharles wrote: post #23
williamscales wrote: post #21

"It was not clear if Tesla could maintain that level of production for a longer period of time." I think this is the million dollar question—was this just a sprint effort to hit a milestone for PR sake or will they produce 5000 next week too?

I think it’s a good question to ask, but it doesn’t mean the milestone was meaningless. Several months ago this would have been unthinkable, and the 5000 deadline was arbitrary anyway.

I think that most people would agree that it was implied in the idea of the milestone that it would be sustainable for more than 7 days.
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