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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#71

Post by ghaff »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #37
sschueller wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny thing is there is already legislation and laws for the right to repair yet Tesla is able to go around it.

Software is covered around copyright law, which is different than right to repair. I'm fine not owning the software my Tesla runs, nor having access to the source code, but I agree that legislation should require Tesla provide tooling that allows for diagnostics and canbus control for repairs (such as for issuing commands to the powertrain and ancillary systems).

AFAIK Tesla only provides access to service manuals in Massachusetts which has a right to repair law. Online subscription that’s just $30 per hour or $3000 per year.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#72

Post by dv_dt »

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

I think the fallacy in thinking that "supply chains don't appear overnight", is that if no one makes intermediate or full sized investment leaps then they the supply chain may be slow to appear or never appear in the volume needed. If you are too accustomed to a very mature supply chain (like IC drive trains fall into), I think a risk is leaning too much towards waiting for maturity.

It's hard to interpret from just the article if BMW is saying not 'til 2020 as their development of the supply chain isn't ready yet, or that they're waiting longer to capitalize a supply chain until some cost reduction 'appears'. There are statements on either sides if those paths forward in the article. So it could be simultaneously true for different links of the supply chain.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#73

Post by dangrossman »

sweden wrote: post #69
lumberjack wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone c…

I have to disagree, most of the current electric car offerings on the market are more expensive than the base price of the Model 3 (looking at the BMW i3 in Europe, the base price is 45000 dollars). Tesla is a company that was built from the ground up, without any prior design and manufacturing experience, and they have been mass producing cars for only 5 or 6 years. You can't simply expect them to have the same busi…

The base price on the Model 3 today is $49,000 and Tesla's own IR documents state that they don't expect to have a positive gross margin, even at that price point, until some time in the distant future after production is fully ramped up at both Fremont and the Gigafactory. It's not a very good example of the point I think you're trying to make.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#74

Post by kickopotomus »

sweden wrote: post #45
dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc.

Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#75

Post by mulmen »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #21
sschueller wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

The dealer network is an unnecessary middle man acting as a parasite extracting value from the system. You can enforce the right to repair through legislation without dealers. > What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable electric vehicles. The battery supply chain is the hardest part, but EV powertrains are so much more simple than an internal combustion powertrain. T…

EV drive trains are more simple but that's not really a problem with modern ICE drive trains. That technology is so mature and well developed that any car is going to go at least 100k miles, well beyond any warranty period.

There are benefits to the electric drive train but that's not the limitation. The rest of the car isn't really any different and because the battery is so expensive (as you point out) the rest of the electric car really suffers.

This appears to be what BMW is saying.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#76

Post by ploxiln »

rwbt wrote: post #40
vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I'm not sure if you know how innovative the BMW i3 is. They decided to go for an entirely different manufacturing process using Carbon Fibre instead of traditional steel stamping and it's entire supply chain is built on renewable energy. That's a big commitment on BMWs part. Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker but it's probably one of the most innovative cars ever produced i…

Sounds more like a vanity project, than a real commercially competitive product.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#77

Post by hobofan »

sschueller wrote: post #18
marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

I'm pretty sure no car maker has a problem with getting rid of the right to repair, and dwindling number of independent repair shops shows that.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#78

Post by detaro »

mulmen wrote: post #70
adrianN wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The German Post approached VW to have them develop electric cars for deliveries in cities. VW refused, so they just hired a couple of students and started/bought their own company. They get requests from all kinds of businesses now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter To me that doesn't sound like there is no market, it sounds like big car manufactures want to milk their ICEs as long as possible.

I'm thinking of starting a blog about RC planes, but I'm going to outsource the development. I submitted a bid to IBM but they haven't replied! On top of that Boeing said they're not interested in assembling my plane! Clearly these incumbents are holding me back. /s Sarcasm aside maybe it just wasn't worth it to VW to take on a relatively small project outside of their core competency?

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#79

Post by mulmen »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #68
mulmen wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the similarity to the Skunk Works. Lockheed developed the Skunk Works planes in secret because they were... secret planes. The CIA doesn't make a habit of advertising our surveillance capabilities. I see the Skunk Works planes as similar to the Corvette or Viper or Supra or i8 or any other top of the line car. It's something you think of in the back of your mind when you buy a Malibu, Neon, Corolla or 3 S…

Apologies, I didn't make the connection as well as I would've liked. You either build the innovator internally (Skunk Works), or you let your innovative competitors eat your lunch. Someone with less bureaucracy and incentive to maintain the status quo is going to innovate.

Ah I understand now. Skunk Works was what we in the tech business would call an "internal startup". Yes, I completely agree with that example.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#80

Post by vesrah »

mulmen wrote: post #53
sschueller wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

My experience with BMW dealerships is that they are borderline criminal organizations. I have never taken my car in for a repair without them breaking something else. I was quoted $15,000.00 for a new head because they failed to gap a spark plug. They remove the access panel in the aero pan when doing oil changes and don't replace it. They over torque everything (drain plug, filter cover, etc). They broke a wiring ha…

What modern BMW uses plugs that aren't pregapped?
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