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Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

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Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#71

Post by xigency »

I understand that people believe Trump is good for business. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the rich. And I also understand that people believe Trump is good for the blue-collar worker.

But I don't understand how Trump could be a good influence, in the long term, on business and the stock market, when looking at his positions and policy changes.

Why Trump isn't good for poor working class America - Assuming there's a large tax on every good coming into the country, then the cost of groceries will increase dramatically. The cost of cars will increase. The cost of consumer electronics will increase. The cost of many goods that Americans buy will increase and that will most directly affect the poor.

Why Trump isn't good for business - Many American companies source their parts from other countries. Increased tariffs and taxes impact their bottom line. Trump wants American companies to hire American and is willing to enforce it. American workers have a higher minimum wage. This also affects the bottom line.

Why Trump isn't good for the rich - If businesses are impacted then investments should decline, but if you've seen The Big Short, then it's possible that we could just have a fraudulent, unpredictable market instead. The huge tax cut should also benefit the rich, so actually, Trump does seem great for the rich.

All in all, I'd like to hear what others think and why this sort of thought isn't widely circulated.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#72

Post by plowman »

This is why Hacker News needs a downvote button. This is a non-story. The DJIA is an average of 30 stocks. Even if it was possible to figure out causation of stock market movement, the DJIA would be a terrible indicator of stock market movement.

For more, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#73

Post by maaaats »

thebiglebrewski wrote: post #51

If you had a bunch of money to put in the stock market, would you: - Put 1/3 of it in now and the other 2/3 in when the next crash hits - Wait until it all goes to shit and put it all in then, keeping it in a high-yield savings account until then (they make about as much as CDs these days) Would love to hear opinions!

Time in the market is better than trying to time the market.

How long until next crash? When is the crash over and things start to climb again? You cannot know before after the fact, so it ends up being a big gamble. I'd say invest now, possibly over a few months if you want to spread the risk.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#74

Post by denom »

notpc wrote: post #23

This is driven by expectations of Trump's deregulatory agenda. He says he's going to cut 75% of regulations. I can't believe this is happening. America is back people.

I never understood this line of reasoning, as if regulations were some extrinsic property.

"I'll take one quart of regulations, a three feet of rules"

It doesn't work that way. The practice of regulation is non-linear in terms of its formulation and result. Long, complicated regulations could be relatively meaningless, while short rules could be really important.

Saying we are going to cut 75% of regulations is useless. Point to specific rules and regulations.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#75

Post by norea-armozel »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

It's more that he's pro-business-he-likes. If you happen to be a company focused on renewable energy or nuclear fusion he's likely to side with old energy companies and try to throw as many regulatory hurdles in front of your ventures to ensure his friends win. All in the name of free market capitalism of course (/s).

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#76

Post by badloginagain »

nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

It takes a long time for economies to correct to a President's actions- on the order of years. It's better to judge a President's effect on the economy at the end of their tenure than at the beginning.

It's also been shown that the President has less affect on the economy than people's perception would have them to believe.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#77

Post by cromwellian »

jjawssd wrote: post #53
celticninja wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends which 75% of regulations he cuts. If he cuts EPA regulations and there is more pollution as a result of the increase in manufacturing this could result in more deaths in the long run. How about safety regulations get cut so manufacturing gets cheaper but more workers die in manufacturing plants, is that ok?

Fine, but what if there is a chance that the huge heap of regulations supporting entrenched interests is broken up? I'm looking at you Comcast

Actually, axing the net-neutrality regulations, which he is sure to do, will help Comcast and AT&T.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#78

Post by crusso »

tgb wrote: post #22
nugget wrote: post #13

Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…

I'm just a little confused about this though. If everyone thinks the market will decline due to Trump, then doesn't the market actually decline? What I'm saying is that apparently there were even more people making the opposite guess.

I would differ with your use of the word "guess".

The underlying dynamics of the market have supported the people who have been long on it.

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#79

Post by crisnoble »

mikeryan wrote: post #54
nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I think this might generally be correct however he seems to be more vehemently "Pro American Worker" and so far when that collides with his "Pro Business" stance the worker is currently winning. Attempting to get businesses to repatriate jobs is not necessarily a "pro-business" stance.

What decisions has he made that are pro worker? I have heard that he has pushed to restart pipeline construction (pro business), freeze fedral hiring (anti worker), and kill ACA (anti worker, pro business).

Re: Dow Hits 20000 for First Time

#80

Post by cryptoz »

nrjdhsbsid wrote: post #18

Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business. I know the whole tech crowd wants him to crash and burn but the stock market rising is no surprise to me. Whether it's worth the damage done to the poor and the environment is yet to be seen.

> Trump for all his craziness is vehemently pro business.

No he is definitely not. Trump is anti-business and he makes that very clear. His campaign promises and actions since election are super clear that he is pro-his-wealth and not pro-business.

A pro-business politician would raise taxes on the wealthy, provide tax cuts for the middle class, increase the corporate tax rate, improve immigration so that more people could come in to the country, address massive business risks like climate change with a serious face, improve healthcare for everyone in nation, etc. A pro-business politician would want a healthy and wealthy middle class, a stable climate, and good tax structure to incentivize smart people to come here and build useful things. More businesses are more likely to succeed in a society that is healthy, resourceful with its environment, and with enough wealth shared that income inequality does not destabilize the structure.

Trump is the opposite of being pro-business. Trump is not fiscally conservative or pro-business at all - the very idea that he is would be considered an "alternative fact" - a lie.

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