71–77 of 77 posts
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Check out Monero, they've solved the scaling incentive problem. https://www.getmonero.org
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"It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price." You must have been living under a rock :) In 3 years, the daily transaction rate grew 8x(!)—clearly a sign that Bitcoin use is growing: a combination of more users, more businesses, etc. An interesting aspect of looking at transaction rate is that it naturally excludes "simple speculators": those who purchase BTC on exchanges and leave the coins st…
I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really. >Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. Miners increased their i…
While the West Bitcoin Bubble has almost died, the number of transactions is real. And users currently are paying $100k every single day to transact on the bitcoin blockchain.
$100k in transaction fees for a sustained period is not some users tumbling their coins, spam or some guys writing data on the blockchain. $100k everyday is a huge money amount. So there is some real economic activity going on.
But where is it coming from? China (the obvious one), Russia ( https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/RUB ), Nigeria ( https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitc... ) and several other countries.
In my opinion, Bitcoin just got its killer app. And no it's not drugs (though evading capital controls is not completely white hat though one can make the point that free capital flows are synonymous to free speech).
Countries that can follow next: India, MiddleEast (pakistan), North Africa (algeria), South America ( Vez and Brazil). These are countries with terrible economies, but they are Huge.
Bitcoin is living up to it's reputation as digital gold. The Chinese are running away from RMB and buying bitcoin, Venezuelans are running away from Bolivares into Bitcoin. And to a lesser extent some Indians are escaping the Rupee. It'll be really interesting to see how governments try to deal with decentralized currencies if they really take off. Governments lose a lot of control when they can't control money.
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No, as Bitcoin appreciates the transaction costs go down in Bitcoin terms and stay the same in fiat currency terms everything else being equal.
When the block rewards decrease, the transaction costs will necessarily have to increase. Right now, the block mining reward dwarfs the transaction cost (effectively subsidizing it). So what increase in transaction volume (relative to capacity) will have to happen in order to keep transaction rates so low? Right now, it looks like there needs to be an order of magnitude volume increase for mining interest to remain.
In USD terms transaction fees have increased more than 7x over the course of 2016. [0] The block reward only halves roughly every 4 years so total USD denominated fees are growing much faster than the coinbase reward is shrinking.
Long term either the block size will have to be raised or the average value transferred per transaction will have to go up to increase fees. Either way rising Bitcoin price isn't bad for the cost of transactions. If anything it makes the coinbase more valuable and causes miners to care less about transaction fees.
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"Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really." Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amoun…
We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every 5 days per user for their to be no need for new users. I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn. >But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommiss…
Yes, you literally wrote "[Bitcoin] hasn't succeeded anywhere".
"I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn."
? I honestly think you are trolling now... You can't seriously be thinking that out of this 8x tx rate growth, there isn't "much growth in users". Even being very very generous with your argument and assuming the average user transacts 4x more, then it still means the userbase grew 2x which would still be a significant success.
"Attracted VC investment in the past tense"
False, investments are still taking place. Here are some deals from 2016: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capita... Over the last 3 years (which is the period of time where you argued "Bitcoin hasn't succeeded anywhere") there has been $0.5-1.0 billion invested in Bitcoin companies, directly contradicting your claim.
"take it mainstream and all of them have failed"
Again, again, and again: tx rate grew 8x, # of ATMs grew, # of merchants accepting Bitcoin grew, price shot up, VC investment are being made, userbase grew, etc. But despite this growth which directly contradicts you, you continue to make statements like "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED"... Bitcoin going mainstream will take 10-20 years or more, and so far it's growing very nicely. The world is not a dichotomy. It's not either "Bitcoin is completely mainstream" or "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED". Sorry I think you are either (1) intentionally trolling or (2) have an issue with admitting when you are wrong (despite you stating otherwise).
I appreciate you attempting to be friendly. But I don't know if you are doing (1) or (2) so I can't afford to waste any more time in this discussion :-( I came back from my trip and started a company. Busy times ahead.
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We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every 5 days per user for their to be no need for new users. I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn. >But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommiss…
"I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users" Yes, you literally wrote "[Bitcoin] hasn't succeeded anywhere" . "I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn." ? I honestly think you are trolling now... You can't seriously be thinking that out of this 8x tx rate growth, there isn't "much growth in users". Even being very very generous with your argument and assuming the…
I do agree that we shouldn't interact anymore though. Good luck with your company.