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American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

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Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#71

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

What about when tech can replace ALL jobs? Not just one small area. It's a very slippery slope were walking here with sufficiently advanced tech.

What then?

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#72
post #62
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farming and other types of automation that put people out of work in the past used technology to amplify and/or replace physical labor. Now we are learning how to use the general purpose computer to replace mental labor. These are different types of automation that will have fundamentally different effects on society. While we have many examples of new technology replacing physical labor, automation of mental labor i…

>Assuming this was even possible and assuming there will be jobs for all of these new programmers/etc, is this retraining cheaper than UBI or other plans? That's assuming that programming won't be one of the first categories of jobs to be automated away by AI. Think of the cost savings! But thankfully we don't have to worry about what all those poor programmers are going to do since it's progress for humanity.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7% cheaper, repeated over and over is meaningful. 1n 1900, people had to spend 43% of their income on food, now it is 13%. They spent 12% of their income on clothing, now it is 4%. Basic goods getting cheaper particularly helps poorer people. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/04/how-amer...

Food has become more expensive recently. Basic materials e.g. timber, nails, screws, stuff you use to build houses, have all become more expensive recently, despite a dramatic decline in house production (in my country at least). Seems like few people are talking about this and it really annoys me. No, things are not getting better and better. Many trends are going into reverse but are not being talked about. They we…

Your timeframe is way too short. You are cherry picking.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shockingly enough, a UBI has been a libertarian concept for nearly half a century. If UBI had some reasonable limitations, like say 10% of the GDP divided evenly amoungst those who apply, it would provide a hard bottom to poverty while leaving huge incentives to find gainful employment. I'm not saying it wouldn't quickly turn into 51% of the people voting themselves 100% of the money (which would quickly become worth…

>Shockingly enough, a UBI has been a libertarian concept for nearly half a century. Can you recommend any reading on this?

Professor Zwolinksy of the University of Sand Diego had a good paper on it a few years ago. Covers the history and differing ideas and their drawbacks.

Neat to think about, but would take a miracle for most people to take seriously.

http://www.cato-unbound.org/2014/08/04/matt-zwolinski/pragma...

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#75

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

Drivers are cheap. Eliminating them won't yield much. Improved safety will be the biggest gain The article cites $40k average pay per driver. That's fast-food wages

>The article cites $40k average pay per driver. That's fast-food wages

Not really. That's basically $20/hour full-time.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#76
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it's just me but I'm getting tired of UBI being put forward as a realistic answer to technological displacement of workers. The most immediate problem would be getting it through legislatures without loopholes that undercut its purpose as a replacement for all other redistributions. That simply never happens, particularly in the US. The next problem is that no one seems to appreciate how incompatible it is with…

I have the feeling, alle the counter arguments simply boil down to "all humans are lazy and won't work anymore if we don't force them" which is a pretty dull view on humanity.

> a pretty dull view on [sic] humanity

Matter can't travel faster than c. Thermodynamics is a bitch.

These theories are as intractable as they are annoying. They are not proven beyond doubt. But before launching a venture in contradiction to them, evidence must be mounted. "It feels right" isn't a scientific basis for policy.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#77
post #62
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farming and other types of automation that put people out of work in the past used technology to amplify and/or replace physical labor. Now we are learning how to use the general purpose computer to replace mental labor. These are different types of automation that will have fundamentally different effects on society. While we have many examples of new technology replacing physical labor, automation of mental labor i…

>Assuming this was even possible and assuming there will be jobs for all of these new programmers/etc, is this retraining cheaper than UBI or other plans? That's assuming that programming won't be one of the first categories of jobs to be automated away by AI. Think of the cost savings! But thankfully we don't have to worry about what all those poor programmers are going to do since it's progress for humanity.

A few jobs I feel pretty safe will still be here in 50 years. They include robot repair, nurses, and computer programmer. Maybe not in 100 years but I won't care then.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goods becoming 7% cheaper means everyone on Earth is 7% wealthier. You might be happy with current prices, but very poor people definitely aren't.

No, of course, no. Goods becoming cheaper means people who sell goods at "adequate prices" will go out of business. Namely, local manufacturers, family businesses, people who pay decent sick leaves, people who obsess over sustainability. Your desire to save that 10% on a pack of potato chips means that instead of a neighboring guy who works in this shop for his entire life, who smiles to you, who knows what you want,…

[deleted]

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food has become more expensive recently. Basic materials e.g. timber, nails, screws, stuff you use to build houses, have all become more expensive recently, despite a dramatic decline in house production (in my country at least). Seems like few people are talking about this and it really annoys me. No, things are not getting better and better. Many trends are going into reverse but are not being talked about. They we…

Your timeframe is way too short. You are cherry picking.

Real median wages haven't increased for about four decades.

Real energy prices have been high since the existence of OPEC with only some relief very recently.

This isn't cherrypicking. That's half a lifetime.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Shockingly enough, a UBI has been a libertarian concept for nearly half a century. Can you recommend any reading on this?

Milton Friedman famously advocated a negative income tax. [0] [0] http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/08/why-aren...

We have a negative income tax through EIC. It's too small to matter though.
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