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PayPal CTO Resigns

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Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#71
post #8

New Money needs a New CTO

When you call their tech support and their own tech support gives up on their products and just recommends the now PayPal owned Braintree...well that wasn't the only bad sign I guess.

BT has much less technical debt and thus more modern design. Most new merchants are encouraged to use v.zero (BT's xo product)

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#72
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction: people haven't been calling a bubble for the last year, it's been for the last 5 years: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2231352 So the majority of people called a tech bubble, unlike your claim that most people are "permabulls", and then there was a period of great growth and prosperity. There have been plenty of people predicting gloom and doom to happen before now and none of them are admitting the…

As you see it, if (hypothetically) an industry lasts for five years, and then collapses due to none of its promises coming to fruition, was it in fact a bubble the whole time? Would people have been wrong for calling it out the whole time, even if it took five years to happen? Whether or not this describes Silicon Valley is a further question, but it sounds like based on your standard, you wouldn't give credit to a n…

Yes its wrong.

Shorting too early is an insane money losing proposition.

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#74
post #31

"Pop." https://twitter.com/djcapelis/status/696869166960095232

Except that PayPal posted a strong earnings report in Q4 2015 ( http://techcrunch.com/2016/01/27/paypal-shares-up-on-earning... ). So this is just a coincidence of timing (new year, etc.). My point is, I seriously doubt the CTO was forced out or left because he thought his stock was worthless. He is most likely leaving for any of the million other reasons people leave companies every day.

Earnings is a lagging indicator

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#75
post #31

"Pop." https://twitter.com/djcapelis/status/696869166960095232

It all seriousness - allowing another mega-bubble to get created just to burst again should be prevented. This is what regulatory safeguards are supposed to prevent but like the housing bubble and financial bubble, the nefarious types always find a way to game the system.

When this happens it so harmful to the little guy and all of the employees stuck in the middle.

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#76
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do a lot of things with business accounts that is irritating. For example: - they should be able to remove the annoying "USE PAYPAL CREDIT FOR THIS??!?!?!?!?!" overlay. - show transaction ids on the payment confirmation page, rather than making us navigate to a 2 more pages after paying Oh, and not sure if this is related to just business accounts, but I have to log in twice to get logged in. Some kind of cookie…

> I have to log in twice to get logged in. I've had to log in twice for months as well. I can't comprehend their leaving something so basic broken this long. > And, lastly, since I see you have a few disputes/chargebacks...their chargeback handling process is horrid. I have no beef with their chargeback handling myself. It's something more ridiculous actually. Those 5 "open cases" are cases I opened against a hosting…

[deleted]

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#78
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction: people haven't been calling a bubble for the last year, it's been for the last 5 years: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2231352 So the majority of people called a tech bubble, unlike your claim that most people are "permabulls", and then there was a period of great growth and prosperity. There have been plenty of people predicting gloom and doom to happen before now and none of them are admitting the…

As you see it, if (hypothetically) an industry lasts for five years, and then collapses due to none of its promises coming to fruition, was it in fact a bubble the whole time? Would people have been wrong for calling it out the whole time, even if it took five years to happen? Whether or not this describes Silicon Valley is a further question, but it sounds like based on your standard, you wouldn't give credit to a n…

If hypothetically, the entire industry collapsed, sure, the people who called it a bubble were right. But an "industry collapse" means something like Google or Facebook shutting down with no competitor to replace it, almost every unicorn going broke, and most importantly the market cap of the entire sector hitting pre-2011 levels proving the growth was fake all along. That would be a really big collapse - to the extent that pointing to a bad Yelp earnings as evidence is a joke. In real bubbles, big, established players like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers disappear and thousands of smaller shops get crushed. A collapse is not a few unicorns losing some value. Even if Uber got wiped out I wouldn't call it an industry collapse, and that scenario is already hard to imagine.

More likely, at some point we'll see a bad year or two, some hiring freezes and layoffs here and there, and people point to that as a bubble collapse that they "knew all along", even though they "knew" it during times when the sector grew more than it eventually receded.

In real bubbles, you see a insane amount of growth based on pure speculation, followed by a massive collapse. The justification for a "bubble" so far has been based on incredibly silly things like the engineers making 80% of what lawyers make or private valuations being high (which only affects a small number of people and is often inflated by things like liquidation preference incentivizing it to sound artificially high despite a significantly lower risk).

Companies like Zynga, Groupon, Living Social, Homejoy, Twitter and Yahoo struggling during a so-called "bubble" is not insane growth, it's proof the market has maintained skepticism over the years. And a few more unicorns falling over won't be a massive collapse either.

Every market has downturns. Not every downturn is a bubble. And an actual "bubble" existence hasn't been proven true despite repeated insistences for 5 years, and I highly doubt it will start now, unless we uncover massive, massive fraud.

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assumed people would be drawing this conclusion when I saw the top 3 threads right now. How do we know that is the case and not just statistical anomaly, though?

That was just a joke, for now. The idea that we're in a bubble on the cusp of collapse has been building over the past year, spiking when the feds raised interest rates, but there's no concrete evidence of a bubble popping. Yet. Get worried when we see (multiple) high-level execs also resigning from Facebook/Twitter/etc. Especially if it's of their own accord...

HN bubble bubble?

Re: PayPal CTO Resigns

#80
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction: people haven't been calling a bubble for the last year, it's been for the last 5 years: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2231352 So the majority of people called a tech bubble, unlike your claim that most people are "permabulls", and then there was a period of great growth and prosperity. There have been plenty of people predicting gloom and doom to happen before now and none of them are admitting the…

As you see it, if (hypothetically) an industry lasts for five years, and then collapses due to none of its promises coming to fruition, was it in fact a bubble the whole time? Would people have been wrong for calling it out the whole time, even if it took five years to happen? Whether or not this describes Silicon Valley is a further question, but it sounds like based on your standard, you wouldn't give credit to a n…

Reply threshold. Saying a bubble bursting always involves a Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns collapse (brother post) is pushing it. That was a leveraged bubble and it burst harder than most. In the dot com bubble most of the big names rode it out from AOL to Yahoo and Amazon. A bubble can pop without a Facebook or Google type company going down.
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