July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded • Hacker News Board

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#71

Post by freehunter » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:56 PM UTC

elektromekatron wrote: post #29

I find it continually amazing how many people find NASA sending rockets into space all the time to be an expected and everyday part of modern life, but then don't trust them with a thermometer.

It's been a while since I've heard the mainstream climate deniers claim that the world isn't getting warmer. Most of them just claim that no matter what happens, it's not humanity's fault nor is it humanity's problem.

--edit: jedberg beat me to it in another conversation: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10092967

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#72

Post by caseysoftware » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:58 PM UTC

davidw wrote: post #50

jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I'd be curious to understand why some people seem to be offended by the idea that people cause global warming. I flag all these articles though, because they always end up about politics, given that scientists are mostly in consensus, and very few people here are climate scientists.

Well, if you accept that humans are a major cause of global warming, the equation becomes pretty simple:

Limit human behavior or limit the number of humans.

Both have scary ramifications.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#73

Post by teraflop » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:58 PM UTC

claar wrote: post #28

Data: Hottest month ever! Group A: Weather != Climate. Data: Coldest month ever! Group B: Weather != Climate. Round and round we go.

That's a bit of a false comparison. Most of the "coldest ever" headlines that you'll see are talking about particular locations or regions, which have extremely high variance. If you look at enough different subsets of your data, you're bound to find both high and low extremes somewhere. But this article is talking about a global average, which is much less noisy.

When you look at global average temperatures over a comparable span of time (since ~1880), every year in the last couple of decades has been pretty close to a record high. The last record low was more than a century ago. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#74

Post by cryoshon » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:58 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

You'll also find many conservatives who will allege that the NOAA has been manipulating their data and "changing the numbers" to make the case for a warming planet.

Nevermind that any European or Chinese or Russian climatology group would deliver the exact same data...

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#75

Post by mturmon » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:59 PM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #63

cryptoz wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, governments will pay a lot. The US Department of Defense considers climate change to be an urgent national security issue. [1] But also, agribusiness like Monsanto will pay - they just bought Climate Corp for $1B+ a couple years ago to improve weather and climate predictions for crop outputs. The primary customers are probably insurance companies I think. There's a lot of money to be saved by predicting and avoi…

[deleted]

This is both rude and uninformed, a poor combination for HN.

Think about your tone. Try to engage fruitfully with people.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#76

Post by guscost » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:59 PM UTC

stevewepay wrote: post #22

ams6110 wrote: post #3

Since 1880 Edit: I normally don't react to downvotes but this is a direct quote. Larger context: this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880–2015 record, at 61.86°F (16.61°C), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.14°F (0.08°C)

How exactly do they do a fair comparison between 1880 and today? I'm assuming the temperature readings today are very accurate, but how accurate were the measuring devices going back in history, and their standards for taking temperature? Most of the thermometers I have in my house are +- 2F, which would eliminate the differences entirely.

Prior to the satellite record historical temperature data is much less reliable, since each source is in a local area and may have different heat island effects, calibration, or quality of instruments. Additionally not as many stations were operating in 1880, which means more uncertainty about the data we do have.

Folks have tried to get around this by finding proxies for temperature (measurements that are theorized to track temperature, like the width of tree rings for example), and then calibrating that data by comparing it with the intervals for which we have reliable data (since 1970 for satellite data, or earlier for whatever thermometer data might be suitable). The long-term trends are identified and argued based on these proxies.

So to answer your question, they can calibrate a proxy using the satellite record, see what it suggests about 1880, and combine that with the available temperature data, but that's about it.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#77

Post by BillTheCat » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 5:00 PM UTC

rnovak wrote: post #66

BillTheCat wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By "horribly inaccurate" do you mean 3 degrees Celsius off or 20 degrees Celsius off? These aftcasts are accurate enough for us to plot the overall course of global climate change.

I mean turning on the "weather channel" and having it say it's sunny out, only to look outside to see pouring rain across the entire city. That's pretty inaccurate in my book.

That has nothing to do with the temperature.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#78

Post by sloppycee » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 5:01 PM UTC

Carrok wrote: post #39

It's interesting to me that if you say "today was hotter than any day on record" The answer given always seems to be global warming. However if you say "today was colder than any day on record" (also happens very frequently) the answer given is "That's weather, not climate." Edit: Apparently this is not interesting to HNers. Bring on the downvotes.

Seems there are now three things that can not be discussed rationally: politics, religion and climate change.

It is a perversion of science when a scientific theory is no longer subject to healthy criticism and skepticism.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#79

Post by rnovak » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 5:01 PM UTC

rdtsc wrote: post #55

rnovak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

> So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. It is saying quite a lot actually because the past has already happened. In the first case you are talking about the future, and yes, in some places weather is more unpredictable. You can of course move to the desert and enjoy clockwork predictable weather if it bothers you that much. The OP was talking about "afca…

wait a second. The OP was comparing "aftcasting" TO "forecasting" 2-3 days in advance, and that's what my statement was based on.

If your 2-3 day forecasting is off by 5-6 degrees (celcius), why would your "aftcasting" forecast for 200 years ago be any more accurate if it is "just as good" as a 2-3 day forecast? That means I would expect an error of 5-6 degrees, same as a 2-3 day forecast

edit: formatting

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#80

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 5:01 PM UTC

davidw wrote: post #50

jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I'd be curious to understand why some people seem to be offended by the idea that people cause global warming. I flag all these articles though, because they always end up about politics, given that scientists are mostly in consensus, and very few people here are climate scientists.

[deleted]