July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded • Hacker News Board

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#41

Post by rnovak » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:41 PM UTC

cryptoz wrote: post #26

stevewepay wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly do they do a fair comparison between 1880 and today? I'm assuming the temperature readings today are very accurate, but how accurate were the measuring devices going back in history, and their standards for taking temperature? Most of the thermometers I have in my house are +- 2F, which would eliminate the differences entirely.

There are significant temperature records that go back much farther than 1880 even. Many navies and armies kept records from all over the world, so we actually have lots more data than people think. There are also bodies of science that deal with 'aftcasting', which is making a weather forecast for a date in the past. These techniques have been refined to the point where we can make 1-day aftcasts for ~1850 that are…

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate. In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job.

Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much.

This is after moving to two cities in the same state, more than 100 miles apart, the forecasts still never get better.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#42

Post by cryptoz » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:42 PM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #40

cryptoz wrote: post #36

Climate change is the biggest problem of our time. I wish there were more startups focused on solving it - there are so many opportunities to make money here while improving the world at a global scale. Mitigating the effects of climate change for businesses could easily be worth $1T+. More VCs should pay attention to these opportunities, and more startup founders should enter this space.

[deleted]

Yes, governments will pay a lot. The US Department of Defense considers climate change to be an urgent national security issue. [1]

But also, agribusiness like Monsanto will pay - they just bought Climate Corp for $1B+ a couple years ago to improve weather and climate predictions for crop outputs. The primary customers are probably insurance companies I think. There's a lot of money to be saved by predicting and avoiding catastrophes through better planning. A catastrophe might be as simple as a 1deg C temperature difference over a farm during a month - or a hurricane, or a drought, etc.

[1]: http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint_wForeword_c.pdf

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#43

Post by savanaly » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:43 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

Yes, other people have noticed that.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#44

Post by zajd » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:44 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I think you'll find (and the comments on this story illustrate the point quite succinctly) that there are still many idiots who are willing to tow the "human driven climate change is a made up thing"

Sad but true

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#45

Post by alelefant » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:44 PM UTC

rnovak wrote: post #41

cryptoz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant temperature records that go back much farther than 1880 even. Many navies and armies kept records from all over the world, so we actually have lots more data than people think. There are also bodies of science that deal with 'aftcasting', which is making a weather forecast for a date in the past. These techniques have been refined to the point where we can make 1-day aftcasts for ~1850 that are…

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

I think that joke is made in every state.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#46

Post by BillTheCat » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:46 PM UTC

rnovak wrote: post #41

cryptoz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant temperature records that go back much farther than 1880 even. Many navies and armies kept records from all over the world, so we actually have lots more data than people think. There are also bodies of science that deal with 'aftcasting', which is making a weather forecast for a date in the past. These techniques have been refined to the point where we can make 1-day aftcasts for ~1850 that are…

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

By "horribly inaccurate" do you mean 3 degrees Celsius off or 20 degrees Celsius off? These aftcasts are accurate enough for us to plot the overall course of global climate change.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#47

Post by zajd » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:46 PM UTC

rnovak wrote: post #41

cryptoz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant temperature records that go back much farther than 1880 even. Many navies and armies kept records from all over the world, so we actually have lots more data than people think. There are also bodies of science that deal with 'aftcasting', which is making a weather forecast for a date in the past. These techniques have been refined to the point where we can make 1-day aftcasts for ~1850 that are…

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

I'm guessing you have some data that backs up this point?

There are some pretty accurate forecasting services

http://www.wunderground.com/most-accurate-weather

http://forecastadvisor.com/

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#48

Post by JustSomeNobody » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:46 PM UTC

wsterling wrote: post #12

ams6110 wrote: post #3

Since 1880 Edit: I normally don't react to downvotes but this is a direct quote. Larger context: this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880–2015 record, at 61.86°F (16.61°C), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.14°F (0.08°C)

Your comment just seems redundant. The title says "ever recorded" right in it. It does not simply say "Hottest Month Ever".

They didn't record anything before 1880?

I don't think the clarification deserved down votes.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#49

Post by cryptoz » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:46 PM UTC

rnovak wrote: post #41

cryptoz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant temperature records that go back much farther than 1880 even. Many navies and armies kept records from all over the world, so we actually have lots more data than people think. There are also bodies of science that deal with 'aftcasting', which is making a weather forecast for a date in the past. These techniques have been refined to the point where we can make 1-day aftcasts for ~1850 that are…

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

Yes, weather forecasting is hard - that's why there's lots of research into 'aftcasts'. If we can learn to make better predictions while limiting the data we take in, we can make big improvements to the accuracy of modern forecasts.

You can make fun of meteorologists if you want, but they are not wrong 95% of the time. In fact, over the last 20 years the accuracy of predictions has gone WAY up on average. There are still many places where forecasting is difficult and it's going to be a long road to improve it to get people like you to trust the forecast. But we're improving and we're making the best forecasts we've ever made in the industry.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#50

Post by davidw » Thu, Aug 20, 2015, 4:47 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I'd be curious to understand why some people seem to be offended by the idea that people cause global warming. I flag all these articles though, because they always end up about politics, given that scientists are mostly in consensus, and very few people here are climate scientists.