Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US • Hacker News Board

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#691

Post by maxdo » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:22 PM UTC

There is a big media push to say EV market is in trouble. If you look at the price change dynamics for batteries, it's a constant decline. In fact, the first Tesla battery pack battery and the current one have a price diff of 30x.

Right now, the cost goes below 100 kWh. That is an industry agreed threshold of EV becomes cheaper to produce compared to ICE cars. So this and next year, market will introduce several EVs that are cheaper compared to ICE. Add to this government funding incentives. Plus, the side effects of expensive batteries pushed companies like Tesla to adopt stamping techniques, higher levels of automation, etc.

So, the typical buyer persona will switch from upper mid-class early adopters to people who need a cheap car for their day-to-day use.

That's going to be another EV rush, where they will be selling everything they can produce.

Fun fact: China surpassed Japan as the biggest car exporter. And battery revolution held mostly by Chinese companies will strengthen that lead x2 since they are the most capable of producing cheap EV's.

Why would you buy a gas Toyota Corolla if you will be able to buy an EV that is $5-10k cheaper? And btw, Chinese manufacturers are buying factories in Mexico to be ready to export EVs to the US.

Scary conspiracy theory: The Western world is very scared of this wave of cheap EVs, and that's why we see these ridiculously misleading articles.

post-WW2 world: The West produces cars and sells them to the rest of the world; no one else is capable of producing good enough ICE cars.

post-2025 world: west is not able to compete with the price and efficiency of Chinese-produced batteries and hence EVs market overall.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#692

Post by lucaspm98 » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:23 PM UTC

atestu wrote: post #664

outlace wrote: post #627

EV’s currently make the most sense for people who own a single family home or otherwise live in a community with readily available near-home chargers, where EV’s are on average more convenient than gas cars. People who rely on street parking and apartment dwellers would likely find EV’s more inconvenient than a gas car. We may be close to saturating the market for the former group. Another factor that could be at pla…

I'm in that first group and I don't see how it makes the most sense. They are not more convenient. I can "charge" my gas car in 2 minutes basically anywhere in the country. I'm going on vacation next week, driving with 2 young children. It'll be about a 11 hour drive which is not crazy for a US vacation. I don't want to plan where I stop and stop for 45 minutes to fuel up with 2 toddlers in the car. And they're all m…

I've charged my EV at a public charging station less than 5 times in the past year. Instead of a 5 minute stop once a week at a gas station it's 5 seconds every time I get home to plug it in.

Any trip within a 3 hour drive is possible round trip on a single charge. Any trip within a 5 hour drive is possible with no stops and destination charging, actually saving a stop.

Any trip over a 5 hour drive generally takes less time and costs less to fly (I'm sure with many edge cases around rural destinations). Even on long road trips, charging from 20-80% takes 15-20 minutes and most drivers will at least need a bathroom break every 3-4 hours.

New Tesla Model 3 prices are comparable to entry level sedans like the Civic and Camry. Used Chevy Bolt's are abundant at <$20k with much less ongoing maintenance costs versus used gas cars. There aren't yet affordable large SUVs and trucks if those are your only vehicles in consideration.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#693

Post by kgwxd » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:25 PM UTC

My in-law’s hybrid Jeep just started on fire while charging in their driveway, confirming what I was starting to consider an irrational fear of EVs. I’d rather move around on exploding gas than go anywhere near these gigantic bricks of highly flammable, inextinguishable chemicals.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#694

Post by mminer237 » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:26 PM UTC

cyberax wrote: post #215

TacticalCoder wrote: post #10

> If there's any direct inspiration for the United States' EV policy, it's Norway. As the story goes, Norway introduced some compelling subsidies for EVs Ah yup... Norway, sitting on gigantic oil reserves. Reserves so huge they could decide to just give the finger to the EU and not join. So huge there's a fund benefiting, AFAIK, all Norway citizens. I'm not criticizing Norway. But citing Norway as some kind of EV pos…

> Besides that the "heavier = bad for the road" (which TFA hints at) is pure non-sense: a regular car or a car twice the weight of the regular car will do exactly jack shit to damage the road. This is not bullshit. Road damage scales as the _fourth_ power of the axle weight. BTW, that's also why buses and heavy tracks are so damaging. One bus does can easily do the same damage as several thousand cars. Wiki: https://…

I think that's why EVs don't really affect the road. You could double the weight of every car in the country, and it would increase road wear by like 3% because of how ridiculously disproportionately large vehicles cause it.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#695

Post by vel0city » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:26 PM UTC

iamleppert wrote: post #534

Until they can produce an EV that doesn’t feel like a massive downgrade in connvience, performance, cost, basically all the ways normal people measure the decision of buying a car, I’m not sold. I like the fact it takes a few minutes to refuel my car, and it’s the same process regardless if I’m traveling 5 miles or 500. I don’t need to deal with charging stations, and if I run out of gas I can take a gas can to the c…

> I like the fact it takes a few minutes to refuel my car

I guarantee you spend more time fueling your ICE than I do my EV in a given year.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#696

Post by lghh » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:26 PM UTC

wmeredith wrote: post #659

talldatethrow wrote: post #90

I think EVs give me LESS range anxiety overall. In my gas car days, atleast once a month I was late for work or an event AND low on gas. Having to remember and think about getting gas was constantly on my mind because I have a pretty long commute. With an electric car, I start every day, always, with a full tank. No matter how late I'm running, I know there won't be a surprise that I need gas in addition to being lat…

Yeah, but if you're low and have to stop for gas, it makes you 10 minutes late. In an EV you're an hour late or have to find another ride.

You don't have to "stop for electricity" in a EV if you can charge at your home. Your car is always ready to go.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#697

Post by njarboe » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:28 PM UTC

olavgg wrote: post #689

Im grateful that the Norwegian gouverment sponsored me a top specced Porsche Taycan Turbo for half the price. Now I drive more than ever, because now driving is really fun. I will repay the Norwegian gouverment by announcing my move to Sweden. I cannot let my kids grow up in a country that spend tax money like a drunk sailor.

Doesn't Norway just not tax EVs unlike ICE cars which are highly taxed? A bit different that the US where domestically made EVs are subsidized.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#698

Post by blitz_skull » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:29 PM UTC

EVs have to be a superior product (read: including the infrastructure) before the majority of people will switch to them, plain and simple.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#699

Post by serial_dev » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:30 PM UTC

bragr wrote: post #676

atestu wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in that first group and I don't see how it makes the most sense. They are not more convenient. I can "charge" my gas car in 2 minutes basically anywhere in the country. I'm going on vacation next week, driving with 2 young children. It'll be about a 11 hour drive which is not crazy for a US vacation. I don't want to plan where I stop and stop for 45 minutes to fuel up with 2 toddlers in the car. And they're all m…

> I don't want to plan where I stop and stop for 45 minutes to fuel up with 2 toddlers in the car. With fast charging you typically only stop for 15-25 minutes, the infotainment or app does the planning for you, and the frequency you'll have to stop at matches the natural frequency people typically need to stop anyways by design.

"It only takes 5x longer to charge at some specific charging stations that may or may not be conveniently located for your trip, I don't know what's the big deal"

I can see how EV cars are good options for people who live in the city and only go grocery shopping, but for people who have family scattered around the country / continent with young children or babies, it sounds extremely inconvenient.

Re: Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US

#700

Post by vel0city » Thu, Jan 04, 2024, 3:30 PM UTC

holoduke wrote: post #518

Can someone advise me when you have a family of 4 kids? Thinking of buying a Ford Explorer. About 30k for a 3 years old one. I believe there are no equivalent EVs. An old model X is just not practical.

I don't have four kids, but I am really interested in getting an EV/PHEV minivan eventually. Hopefully more vehicles like the ID.Buzz come out and prove a bit of a market for it. Right now, the only PHEV minivan in the US market is the Chrysler Pacifica, and I'm not entirely sure on the reliability of its drivetrain.

But yeah there's currently not a lot of 3+ year old used EVs out there because a lot of models are barely even three years old and haven't even been produced in mass quantities for 3+ years. This situation is likely to change over the next 5 years or so.