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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#691

Post by mmcnl »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Normally economic indicators are signals of what is to come. However with the sudden current crisis it's the other way around. Everybody already knows millions of people are without a job and the situation is very bad. This is not an economic crisis, this is a health crisis with economic consequences.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#692

Post by JoeAltmaier »

mullingitover wrote: post #690
at-fates-hands wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…

Sharing anecdotes about pulling yourself up by your bootstraps doesn't change the fact that the biggest predictors of your life outcomes are your parents incomes and your zip code.

{citation}

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#693

Post by jessaustin »

r00fus wrote: post #428
OldHand2018 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, if it gets taken away it gets given to me as the senior lien holder. For best legal protection, I should loan her money with some nominal interest rate. A distant family member did this on the house of one of their kids, and it saved them from losing it in a foreclosure. The other lender was so angry with them for refusing to release their lien; but they couldn't legally force them to do it.

Don't house loans require an upfront disclosure of leins against the property?

This would only work in an "easy money" period, during which loan originators are eager to ignore lending standards on second mortgages. Such periods will come around again, though.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#694

Post by lisper »

xxpor wrote: post #359
lottin wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may be pumping cash but it doesn't seem that this is resulting in more consumer demand, which is what would lead to price inflation.

This is a good point. CPI is very good at missing the classes of products that have seen massive price increases: housing, education, and other large assets. For everyone who will respond "oh but CPI has a housing component": https://slate.com/business/2014/02/housing-inflation-the-cpi...

Health care.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#695

Post by stcredzero »

krapp wrote: post #686
stcredzero wrote: post #665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no reason to bring that reference in an otherwise non-political discussion. It's hard to separate socioeconomic differentials from politics. And I specifically use deplorable to call out the political excesses of my own accustomed "tribe."

>And I specifically use deplorable to call out the political excesses of my own accustomed "tribe." And, either purposely or naively, you're misconstruing the context and scope of a single quote as if you were a part of the other "tribe." The "basket of deplorables" comment is widely and incorrectly assumed to be an expression of elitist disdain by "the left" for all rural white males, all Trump supporters, or everyo…

And, either purposely or naively, you're misconstruing the context and scope of a single quote as if you were a part of the other "tribe."

The "basket of deplorables" comment is widely and incorrectly assumed to be an expression of elitist disdain by "the left" for all rural white males, all Trump supporters, or everyone of lower socioeconomic class, when it rather explicitly referred to the - and I'm paraphrasing almost directly from the quote here - "racists, sexists, homophobes, xenophobes, Islamophobes" who took over Trump's base and steered it in an extremist direction. In other words, people who should be considered deplorable.

It may not have been a precisely worded criticism but it was an accurate one.

Thanks. I have absolutely no reason to reply to any of that.

I know the following from personal experience as a person of color, as a not completely hetero-normative person, and as someone who lived in the on-campus house of an organization that had non-gender specific bathrooms in the 1980's. As I mentioned elsewhere, tone-deafness and lack of self-awareness are often symptoms of someone having lost the ability to view others -- all others -- as fully equal in basic human being status.

Left as an exercise to the reader: Who exactly am I calling out here?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#696

Post by klmadfejno »

mrb wrote: post #488
klmadfejno wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the idea that this virus kills 20% of all people is stupid. You just made that number up. We don't have much we can do to treat this disease. Nobody believes it would ever go that high. If somehow it does, even more than 80% will be old and sick. 4% of a population dying also does not mean the economy contracts by 4%. You just... made that up too. Lastly, you've assumed that a 4% annualized economy contract…

« kills 20% of all people is stupid. You just made that number up » I did not claim that. I just took this percentage from the hypothetical situation you used to build an argument ( you yourself said if 10-20% die then it wouldn't mean much to the economy.) « 4% of a population dying also does not mean the economy contracts by 4%. » Yes it does. Basic economics. With everything being equal, the size of an economy is…

You sound like Dennis from Always Sunny talking about how girls need to sleep with him if they're alone on a boat because of the implication of what would happen if they refuse, but denying that he actually said anything threatening.

> "I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however."

Yes, you didn't claim anything. But the implication is clear. When I responded I assumed you meant 20% CFR.

> Yes it does. Basic economics. With everything being equal, the size of an economy is linearly proportional to the number of persons.

I don't know what else I can say other than this is a dumb statement that you just made up.

* It's not a basic tenant of economics

* All things aren't equal, ever

* It's not a linear relationship, nor even always positively correlated over time depending on context

And lastly if you actually believe your math, then its clear that for any realistic death rate the economic impact is negligible.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#697

Post by School-Cotton »

mdemare wrote: post #485
School-Cotton wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, that number is clearly exaggerated. No current evidence supports the claim that a million people in the USA dying of covid is remotely plausible. Now to the substance of your argument: this has little to do with capitalism. If most people are not working for a long period of time, in any society, even a non-capitalist one, then that society will rapidly become dramatically materially poorer. We make cho…

Without a lockdown, most of the country will eventually be infected. NYC currently has 21000 excess deaths, so extrapolating that to the rest of the country would mean 21000*328M / 10M = 690,000 excess deaths. That's assuming that nobody else in NYC is going to die of Covid 19, even after lifting the lockdown, so this is an extremely conservative projection, and it's already close to 1M deaths. What's implausible abo…

Sorry, you're right. I did the arithmetic wrong, thinking that 1M deaths would represent 3% of the population, instead of 0.3%. My mistake!

The rest of my point still stands.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#698

Post by mbgerring »

stcredzero wrote: post #479
jdhn wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

> It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder.

That's not who's protesting with assault rifles demanding that their hairdresser show up to work.

People who are "lower on the socioeconomic ladder" are the ones going on strike for PPE, hazard pay and sick leave that the media are dutifully ignoring.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#699

Post by JoeAltmaier »

stcredzero wrote: post #479
jdhn wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

Lots is being done to lessen the effect on the lower socioeconomic ladder. My state has a $600/week stipend for all those unemployed. In many cases this is more than they earned while employed. Sort of a temporary "basic income".

So its unevenly applied (not in every state). That's an issue to bring up with your state representative.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#700

Post by stallmanite »

mmmBacon wrote: post #233
maram wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

I have several kids at home, all at different elementary grade levels and it’s not at all easy to keep them on track, motivated, and actually learning something while trying to get work done myself. The kids have been cooped up and its hard to keep the kids from bickering. Schools are not helping. They are giving assignments but telling kids things won’t be graded or are optional, etc... so kids don’t want to do some…

I wonder why we have collectively decided to make society so competitive. We have more technology and resources at our disposal than ever before. We could make things easier on ourselves not harder. What’s the point? (I don’t believe all the competition and thrashing about is improving performance. Did stack ranking improve performance at Microsoft?)
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