681–690 of 777 posts
Cheap stocks people. Got my eye on some that below a certain price it would be a no brainer to buy. Global trade is rerouting around the bottleneck. Didn't think there would be an opportunity so soon after March 2020. Got my eye on a tech stock that has dropped about 40% already but was undervalued before IMO.
I don’t expect Trump to make sane or rational decisions. But can anyone explain why the GOP senate is just standing by? Surely they are getting hit on the effects of the tariffs like everyone else. Doesn’t compute.
Because opposing Trump risks becoming an outcast, which is the thing that humans want least, and losing their job. There is not yet the sign that their voting base actually wants them to do anything to oppose Trump.
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To be clear, this is going to have to pass the house. Then, Trump will veto it. Then, the senate will need 16 Republican senators (30% of the party) to vote against it. And it's still a toss-up if Trump will even obey it or if he'll executively order customs to continue the Tariffs. So unless Republicans suddenly grow a spine, which is unlikely given their current strategy is "hide the stock ticket on Fox news" and p…
My assumption is that Trump understands what a mess he has gotten himself into and wants to extricate his head, without losing face. Congressional action will allow him to do that because he can blame congress for undoing his tariffs which was a good idea all along. This is the only way out.
This is a pure klept move. Who knows if he understands that the US manufacturing iPhones and cars-with-no-foreign-parts isn't possible in his lifetime (or most of ours), but regardless, he understands that this is his chance to finally get rich for real after all that cosplayin', and doesn't need to understand the rest.
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Also would require near-certainty that these conditions will last far, far longer than 4 years (or 4 days, per earlier tariff tantrums). Especially for the most important industries like semiconductors, steel, oil, which require massive capex.
You said the most important part. Trump and Co believes that a car or semi factories grow overnight like mushrooms in the forest. If a CEO of a semiconductor company would decide to start building a billion dollar plant in the USA, which would take 6-8 years to built, knowing that new President from the other much different party might take over in less than 4 years, that CEO would probably endup being sued by shareh…
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> Trust is not important if they are afraid of you .. Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument. I've noticed this also, having spent a lot of time in both places. Some would say this is part of the American national character, and it's the darker side of hard-nosed individualistic cowboys, etc. The famous opening speech of Patton comes to…
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Yes, that is what i meant by "the issue identified that needs to be addressed is the US president being a dick."
Trump tariffs are based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, overriding USMCA and other trade agreements. Any renegotiation of USMCA wouldn't stop the potential use of IEEPA to selectively override parts of USMCA v2. It's more likely that USMCA violations referenced by Carney and Freeland were done by Mexico/China, at the economic expense of both Canada and USA.
In context it seems very unlikely this is about mexico, as carney is running on a platform of closer integration with mexico and strongly distancing canada ecconomically from the united states. Carney's ecconomic policies are not identical to the previous administration - it makes about as much sense to refer to trudeau/freeland's statements as it would to try and explain trump's policies by referencing things biden said/did.
Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…
Anyone who's played cards or an MMO know those are insanely good odds -- virtually guaranteed!
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> Trust is not important if they are afraid of you .. Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument. I've noticed this also, having spent a lot of time in both places. Some would say this is part of the American national character, and it's the darker side of hard-nosed individualistic cowboys, etc. The famous opening speech of Patton comes to…
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Are you pretty young? The narrative when it was happening was pretty catastrophic. I remember reading about people not being able to get prescriptions, for example, because no one knew how imports worked. I don't know how things panned out, but the discussions in the early days around Brexit were absolutely on par or even worse than what we're seeing in these two days of discussions around tariffs.
Note that these tariffs largely don’t take effect til the 9th. That’s when we start seeing what the second-order effects are.
Right now we're seeing the 0th order effects.
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Respectfully, what the fuck are you talking about?