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The metaverse is bullshit

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Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#681

Post by snovv_crash »

meheleventyone wrote: post #647
snovv_crash wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In your video you show the force in red being applied somewhere up top. What is this force? What applies it? Your force sideways is actually from the ground, on the tyres. This acts on the CoG (or better to call it Center of Mass), so if this CoM is above the tyres you get a torque, because the mass doesn't instantly accelerate, but resists the force. This torque then needs to be countered by having more force on the…

The torque to roll the car in my example is provided by an external force, the dark brown/red arrow being applied to the top right of the 'car'. This is why the car would still roll even if you had the CoM at the ground level. I'm simplifying the true situation (suspension, roll due to the forces involved in turning and so on) to isolate just the impact of CoM position on body roll. So you need a force to induce roll…

Well sure, if an external object hits your car above the CoM then it will roll. I suspect we're talking past each other, I was referring to the handling characteristics, not the response to an impact.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#682

Post by secondviewing »

gfodor wrote: post #529
Oddskar wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will you recognize that it doesn't actually have to be a point to it, though? As long as you can spellbind investors there doesn't actually need to be something useful that's build at the end of the day. "Crypto" is a good example of this. A lot of the products and services that were build using Blockchain could just have used a normal RDBMS.

Sure, no doubt. But the arguments fielded on HN as to why these various technologies are dead ends and will implode once people become rational are weak. They're usually from people who literally have never used the technology (or, used it many years ago.) At best, they have, don't get it (which is fine) but then go on to make the leap that since they didn't get anything out of it, the whole thing is a house of cards…

I want to make one thing clear from the outset - I want to get it. I want to get it because I want to restore my enthusiasm for tech. I want to understand how crypto and AR/VR are not a gimmick, a barren offshoot of human creativity that will lead nowhere.

> The value prop of VR and AR is remote social presence on par with f2f and full sensory override

Full sensory override how? VR (and VR-facilitated AR) can't even create an immersive visual experience at this point. It hasn't yet cracked the "3 dimensions" chestnut. You talk of "full sensory override" as if plugging into the brain stem was right around the corner (and was going to bring about that override).

If you did have full-sensory override, you might be onto something, but the way things are today, with the tech so inadequate, it seems like a non-starter. Full-sensory override, if it will come, will likely come from a completely different direction. Think lucid dreaming.

> The value prop of crypto is economic freedom

The kind of economic freedom where even your ability to get involved in crypto at all is fully dependent on centralized exchanges, and their approval of you as a client? That, or rummage around in your attic trying to find a spare power plant that has to be there somewhere, so that you can enter the game via mining.

I am sorry. I really would like to believe. But these hot technologies seem to come with insurmountable design flaws that have been there from day one, were still present at day one thousand, and will be there at day ten thousand. I think that is the reason for the broad skepticism.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#683

Post by mc32 »

michaelmrose wrote: post #669
mc32 wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One bit: “the book was better” crowd are a small vocal minority of the people who watch the book inspired movie. Most moviegoers will never have read the book.

Can you name some works first conceived as books where the movie adaptation was superior? Reading for pleasure requires an individual with a greater degree of imagination and intelligence vs staring at a screen and often takes a much greater time investment and yet often offers a broader set of experiences because one needn't convince someone to invest 100s of millions animating fantastic scenes if one author sitting…

I think we’re talking past each other.

I’m saying yes, we hear lots of people say “the book was better” and in most cases that’s true. However, most people will never have read the books movies based on books were based on, so it’s kind of a pointless Pyrrhic argument.

That said, many will claim that The Godfather movie was better than the book -I never read the book, so I cannot offer an opinion.

But, yes, normally, in order to capture the nuance and details of a book you’d need a multi part series.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#684

Post by rajamaka »

dustingetz wrote: post #355
emilsedgh wrote: post #305

Metaverse is not bullshit. It's a sign of desperation. Facebook has _nothing_ for the future. * Blue app is already on it's death bed. * Instagram is already seeing a massive decline in quality and engagement as its getting close to the end of its lifecycle. * They managed to survive Snapchat, but I think that made them think Instagram is too big to fail. Thus, they didn't go after TikTok. It was a mistake. * What's…

Facebook also has nothing better to spend the cash on – $60bn cash reserves in 2020 and revs are $120bn/yr growing at 30% y/y, what do you even do with that?

Pay dividends

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#685

Post by enneff »

parasubvert wrote: post #558
emilsedgh wrote: post #305

Metaverse is not bullshit. It's a sign of desperation. Facebook has _nothing_ for the future. * Blue app is already on it's death bed. * Instagram is already seeing a massive decline in quality and engagement as its getting close to the end of its lifecycle. * They managed to survive Snapchat, but I think that made them think Instagram is too big to fail. Thus, they didn't go after TikTok. It was a mistake. * What's…

I think this is optimistic. Oculus is winning the early rounds of the VR market war. Google in 1998 was just another search engine. Netflix mailed DVDs. Amazon grew from $150 to 600m revenue and had just started selling music and movies. Facebook non-ad revenue is $3b annually and growing. Oculus store and devices account for easily half or more of that number. Beat Saber on the Quest 2 alone has cracked $100m. Beat…

Nobody cares about VR.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#686

Post by benhurmarcel »

emilsedgh wrote: post #305

Metaverse is not bullshit. It's a sign of desperation. Facebook has _nothing_ for the future. * Blue app is already on it's death bed. * Instagram is already seeing a massive decline in quality and engagement as its getting close to the end of its lifecycle. * They managed to survive Snapchat, but I think that made them think Instagram is too big to fail. Thus, they didn't go after TikTok. It was a mistake. * What's…

> What's App is not monetizable

That seems shortsighted. I’m not even talking about destroying the app by adding ads or selling user data.

They could add payments between individuals, it would instantly become the default method in many countries. Expand it to pay businesses then, via QR codes like they have in China. Make sure you’re cheaper than cards and Apple/Google Pay, especially for small sums.

They could sell business accounts, and allow customers to message any business by searching them by name (without having them as a contact). Give them a url and QR code that opens a conversation directly. Develop tools for pros to efficiently handle customers. Let customers book a business directly from the app for example. Given the reach of Whatsapp in many places you’d have a lot of interested businesses.

They have a place in the phone dock of entire first-world countries, billions of people literally have the app open all day, and they can’t monetize?

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#687

Post by IshKebab »

parasubvert wrote: post #562
IshKebab wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, I own an Oculus Quest and some games are definitely amazing. Beat Sabre and I Expect You To Die for example. I love them. But I still rarely use it. Even completely wireless it's still a hassle to get out, and not especially comfortable or easy to wear. And even shifting it slightly results in things going out of focus so you need it lines up just right. Plus very few people have big empty dedicated VR…

For socializing and work I think there’s quite a lot of chance for VR, especially if due to climate and pandemics we can’t travel as much as we used to. It’s just a matter of finding the right balance of capability and convenience. Remember, videoconferencing was also dead and nobody used it… until they suddenly did.

> Remember, videoconferencing was also dead and nobody used it… until they suddenly did.

People use videoconferencing now in spite of its flaws because they have to. Once the pandemic is truly over it will gradually return to near its old levels.

The fundamental issue is that a lot of people have shitty internet. VR doesn't change that. Replacing shitty videoconferencing with shitty VRconferencing is not a compelling option unless you really benefit from the VR (maybe architects?).

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#688

Post by emilsedgh »

benhurmarcel wrote: post #686
emilsedgh wrote: post #305

Metaverse is not bullshit. It's a sign of desperation. Facebook has _nothing_ for the future. * Blue app is already on it's death bed. * Instagram is already seeing a massive decline in quality and engagement as its getting close to the end of its lifecycle. * They managed to survive Snapchat, but I think that made them think Instagram is too big to fail. Thus, they didn't go after TikTok. It was a mistake. * What's…

> What's App is not monetizable That seems shortsighted. I’m not even talking about destroying the app by adding ads or selling user data. They could add payments between individuals, it would instantly become the default method in many countries. Expand it to pay businesses then, via QR codes like they have in China. Make sure you’re cheaper than cards and Apple/Google Pay, especially for small sums. They could sell…

I'm sure they can find ways to monetize it but they will ever be monetized enough for Facebook's size as one of their major revenue streams. How much of Apple/Google's revenue is due to their payment systems?

When Facebook thinks of monetizing Whats App as one of their major/only assets, it needs to find a business plan that'd allow billions of dollars.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#689

Post by Phileosopher »

Griffinsauce wrote: post #620
slightwinder wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Text is mightier than the Metaverse. "A Picture says more than a thousand words." > Kids can do video calls with their smartphones but prefer texting. Because text is asynchronous, and persistent. Text is a weak medium, but with specific strengths which can beat others in certain situation if they can played well. > We could discuss Hacker News stories with video chat but we prefer text. I guess you haven't discove…

> Text is a weak medium You state this as fact while it's extremely debatable. What is your measure of a mediums strength?

I don't consider text a weak medium, but would contend that the strength of the medium is its efficacy in conveying a portrayed concept.

In that sense, text is a strong medium for certain things (like a dataset) and bad for others (like conveying the beauty of a camera pan within a movie that conveys a miniature story).

I've noticed that fanboyism of old AND new technologies is often only grabbing half of the story. We still use "obsolete" technologies, since none of them ever become completely bereft of potential purpose with the development of new technologies, even when they become hipster-niche-chic. Horses or tape storage, for example.

Re: The metaverse is bullshit

#690

Post by dools »

rsj_hn wrote: post #676
dools wrote: post #675

Spot on. I don’t get how anyone who saw future dystopian sci fi in the 80s doesn’t understand that it’s all the result of increased privatisation. I would also hazard a guess that the future of screens is not more immersive screens but fewer screens at all. Voice control is a more important innovation than VR goggles.

> I don’t get how anyone who saw future dystopian sci fi in the 80s doesn’t understand that it’s all the result of increased privatisation. In what sense has there been increased privatization since the 1980s? Note that I'm not contradicting you, I'm just asking how you are measuring this. Note that Government spending has gone up. Since the 1980s, we've massively subsidized and increased regulation over healthcare (…

I think the primary distinction is between government expenditure on private production and government production. While in many cases governments still pay for things, they're not running them. The idea of course being that a profit motive improves efficiency, but of course it is competition that does so and in almost all cases government purchasing of private production suffers from the principal-agent problem:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal–agent_problem

I think my favourite source of information on the political side of privatisation (rather than the economic side) is this lecture series from Professor Shapiro at Yale:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDqvzFY72mg

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