Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

Post by jtbayly » Thu, Jul 09, 2020, 2:41 AM UTC

YZF wrote: post #661

jtbayly wrote: post #604

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They have only stabilized at that level if you are willing to permanently keep things the way they are. Are you comfortable with the restrictions currently in place being permanent? Hopefully a vaccine is discovered.

I think we can keep things where they are. The current restrictions aren't great but they are sustainable: - Virtually no travel in and out of the country (goods still flow though). - No gatherings > 50 people. - Keep 2m away from others (except for "bubbles"). - Wash your hands. - Masks in certain situations (not mandatory for most). - Various limitations in place as to how businesses operate, e.g. distance between…

Post by chimprich » Thu, Jul 09, 2020, 6:40 AM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #654

chimprich wrote: post #555

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> All so that 75 year olds can have an extra month or two of average life expectancy? One study found the average loss of life per COVID-19 death is 11 years for men and 13 for women. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 It's potentially a lot more if you let the virus get out of control. The hospitalisation rate is difficult to pin down, but could be something like 4% for people in their 40s. That proporti…

That study estimates years of life lost for people that died , not the infected population: Among patients dying of COVID-19, there appears to be a considerable burden in terms of years of life lost I don't think you are deliberately misusing statistics here, but this common confusion massively overstates the risk of infection in the same way that the early focus on Case Fatality Rates did. To be meaningful, those Ye…

Post by nickthemagicman » Thu, Jul 09, 2020, 11:37 AM UTC

pw201 wrote: post #638

nickthemagicman wrote: post #444

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Coronavirus deaths aren't preventable. Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Corona isn't going anywhere.

> Youre are going to have the same number of deaths sooner or later as long as the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Even assuming there's never a vaccine or effective cure, this is not true: temporarily reducing the R number (lockdowns, distancing, masks) reduces the overshoot in the total number of people who get the disease (some proportion of which will die). It's the difference between scenario 0 and scenario 1 in t…

Post by nickthemagicman » Thu, Jul 09, 2020, 11:58 AM UTC

Leherenn wrote: post #613

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Keeping the virus contained for years is unthinkable. If we don't get a vaccine by next year, we won't need it anymore.

With the current measures in Europe? Definitely doable. It's currently mandatory masks in public, keeping distances and washing hands, and no big crowds. Life feels pretty normal over here.

Post by vmception » Thu, Jul 09, 2020, 12:20 PM UTC

TMWNN wrote: post #364

vmception wrote: post #158

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I have been willing to be frustrated with moving the goal post, but there is new information that mayors and governors know that the general public doesn't have a good way to know: The low mortality rate and managed ICU capacity isn't the whole story. there is a large population of recovering and recovered that have serious complications, that seem random and are unproductive to our society. Blood clots resulting in…

99% of the cases that last for months, like Nick Cordero, are from the early days of the pandemic where doctors mistakenly put people who didn't need mechanical respiration on ventilators, damaging healthy lungs and causing breathing dependence that doctors found difficult/impossible to wean from and all sorts of other complications, such as deep vein thrombosis (again, see Cordero's case). The mean time between symp…