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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#651

Post by DrBazza »

blitzar wrote: post #621
DrBazza wrote: post #547

> Here are three stories about the state of gambling in America. Here's one story about gambling in the UK: the TV advertising is relentless and out of control after 9pm due to legislation passed in the early 00s. Gambling can quite literally lose you your house, friends and family. But apparently it's totally fine to advertise as long as HMRC get ££££. On some TV channels, every second advert, or worse, most adverts…

You forgot to mention the high street ... Mine has a pub, a butcher, a baker, a sandwich shop, 3 coffee shops and 5 bookmakers.

No candlestick maker? I'm disappointed ;)

My local highstreet also had several betting shops where none previously existed. It's quite depressing really, and gambling invariably targets the poorest in the community.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rub-a-dub-dub

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#652

Post by Breza »

super256 wrote: post #570
jappgar wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be useful to predict things like earthquakes and tornados. Gambling on what politicians and celebrities will do is not science it's degenerate court gossip.

Game theory can be applied to these problem, and if you can correctly model reward, cost and motives, you can predict decisions of politicians more often than not.

I don't think Nash envisioned politicians and their aides being able to profit from making decisions. Do you launch an attack on Eastasia? Well the market right now says there's a 40% chance, so I guess it's a good idea to grab your crypto keys and make some bets before you call the Joint Chiefs.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#653

Post by Breza »

automatic6131 wrote: post #553
Spacecosmonaut wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is genuine value in a wisdom of the crowds assessment of future events that is only sharpened up by the requirement to put money on the line.

There is definitely value in that, but that value is outweighed - dominated, even - by the incentive produced to fix outcomes, incentivized by that money put on the line.

How dare you impugn the mystical powers of the wisdom of the crowd. Why would anybody fix outcomes?

Wait a minute, you can bet on pro wrestling? OK I'm out of ideas.

https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/entertainment/wwe/

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#654

Post by epolanski »

bit-anarchist wrote: post #644
epolanski wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, I really feel like so many of the people defending prediction markets don't understand the very basics of economy and behavioral science: incentives. You're creating a legalized system with the incentives to influence events to make terrible stuff happen. We've already seen huge bets on the deadline of US attack to Venezuela spike few hours/days before the actual aggression. Which means that insiders not only h…

And the naysayers would be right. They come from two approaches: - Property rights: bettors are waging using their own property at their own direct risk. To prohitbit such a thing is to violate their property rights, plain and simple; - Information aggregation: prediction markets originally appeared to help make informed decisions about an event by proof-of-stake. If I'm not mistaken, this idea was originally develop…

No, they would be wrong.

Have them have a prediction market on whether their house will be arsoned tomorrow or they will be hit by a car and instantly they will recognize the danger of the incentives and the bs of "information hedging based on price discovery".

Cause way worse events allow betting and profiting.

Give me a break, we're at the complete decadence of society and its intellect. Nobody can recognize right or wrong anymore let alone understand why insider trading, betting, etc, has been outlawed and prosecuted forever.

We live in the vilest era I remember since I was born, this is beyond disgusting.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#655

Post by MengerSponge »

hunterpayne wrote: post #388
MengerSponge wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Professor Cottom's a certified (McArthur) Genius, and she clocked this "scam culture" back in 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opinion/scams-trust-insti... Things have gotten dramatically worse since then.

I knew a couple of McArthur Genius grant recipients (they were students like me) when I was in college. I wouldn't put any of them among the top most intelligent students I went to school with. The way they are chosen isn't exactly bad but it doesn't end up with giving the grants to "geniuses". If you aren't in one of the top most competitive fields, its more about applying and getting the right recommendations. If y…

Bro. You don't apply for the McArthur.

And why would you go out of your way to misspell her name? What do you gain by that aside from just looking petulant?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#656

Post by Miraste »

vovavili wrote: post #614
worldsayshi wrote: post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious what positive externalities you're thinking about? Being able to make plans for the future?

Again, as I said, "aggregating public and private information through market mechanisms".

That's vague enough to be more or less meaningless, where specifically do you see positive externalities outweighing the numerous negative ones?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#657

Post by spacebanana7 »

DeathArrow wrote: post #636
spacebanana7 wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extreme events are always poorly priced in markets. For example, there's no point in making a trade for the S&P 500 falling by 90% because if it does we'll be in such a catastrophe that money doesn't matter any more. Insurance / hedging is most useful in protecting you from realistic well defined risks that affect you personally but not the wider system.

>Insurance / hedging is most useful in protecting you from realistic well defined risks that affect you personally but not the wider system. But a powerful earthquake can't affect the wider system in a country? and yet, people do buy insurances for earthquakes.

Perhaps I should’ve said financial system plus some system that allows you to spend money on things you’d like.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#658

Post by [deleted] »

nickpp wrote: post #529
krastanov wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds incredibly naive. Competition does not magically prevent monopolies -- once you have a dominant player they just buy or undercut the occasional competing startup.

> once you have a dominant player they just buy or undercut the occasional competing startup If they buy startups, a thousand more will spring up hoping to be bought. Investors love this game. And if you think undercutting works, read up on the story of Dow and how they broke the German bromine monopoly [1]. There is no such thing as a natural monopoly. Only governments can create monopolies, usually through regulati…

[deleted]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#659

Post by Breza »

superxpro12 wrote: post #619

The final conclusion about the evolving and rising focus on "money" as a core value is interesting, and one that seems to make sense to me. I think most people before the age of information found meaning in life in these non-monetary "beliefs"... religion, community engagement, etc. Mostly to the benefit of the wealthy class. I think people are finally waking up to the fact that the wealthy (parasite) class have been…

I assure you that poor people have always been focused on money. Every time the rent is due, they are very aware. It's the wealthier folks who have historically had the privilege of being Bogleheads and ignore having to think about the financial implications of every decision they make.

Lower-income families have traditionally had community institutions to support them. You could be a church member for free, hang out at the union hall, or participate in any number of IRL activities that let you quit thinking about cashflow for a few blessed hours.

Replacing community engagement with an obsession over cash isn't healthy, either for individuals or communities.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#660

Post by Miraste »

doctaj wrote: post #575
well_ackshually wrote: post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's three kinds of players on Polymarket & others * The insider trading ones that will never lose money * The wallstreetbets degenerates with enough money that it's a fun game even if you lose money * People that have seen every chance they have at becoming moderately wealthy disappear under the current economic state of their country, where overwhelming debt is likely. The era of making it wealthy from a job is…

Note that #1 will get kicked off the platform immediately. Even non-inside traders who win significantly more than expected will be kicked off. If you’re on the platform, you’re losing.

This is true for traditional gambling platforms, because they bet directly against their users, and make money when their users lose those bets.

Polymarket has a different incentive. They profit when their users bet more money, through percentage fees. Insider trading helps them achieve this by bringing in more money to the platform--they won't kick insider traders off.

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