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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

651–660 of 833 posts

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#651
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13624175

Except that according to the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect the spell is never broken for most people. They turn the page and resume reading as if the source was still trust worthy.

The rest think they can winnow grains from chaff due to:

Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge or competence in a given intellectual or social domain greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general.

https://www.britannica.com/science/Dunning-Kruger-effect

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#652
post #9
post #3

[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…

> warned it could damage “international harmony”. I've never understood the argument that people would want to suppress the (accidental) lab-leak hypothesis out of a desire to protect the image of China. If the lab-leak hypothesis is incorrect, that doesn't change the fact that the virus originated in that country, it just means that the virus emerged from a wet market. I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country…

In a democratic country the "ruling party" and "love towards their country" can be independent. But in an authoritarian country this feeling is supressed.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out Peter Daszak twitter profile for an example for the abuse you will get if you speak out against the lab leak hypothesis: https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak Quite understandable if you would not want to participate in that.

Somewhat telling that you need a "throwaway" to point that out...

But seriously. It is easy to be labelled "CCP-shill" or "useful idiot" if you question the lab leak theory.

And what is even crazier is that the lab leak-proponents are convinced that they are being censored. Even though they are completely dominating here (and elsewhere) in the hn comments, commenting on a pro-lab leak theory article from a major UK newspaper.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#654
post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was a genetic engineer for two decades: - Clear signs of molecular manipulation in the sars-cov-2 sequence. There are none. Almost all of the alleged manipulations would have left unmistakeable, damning evidence in a recognizable vector. The only remotely interesting thing at all in the sequence is the furin site, but plenty of coronaviruses have those, and it just likely indicates selection/propagation in a second…

This isn't just a random scapegoat. It just happens that the company (Ecohealth Alliance) proposed the gain-of-function research on the virus to DARPA, which was subsequently rejected as being too risky. NIH later funded similar research to the same company for its work in Wuhan during 2020. I'm far from a conspiracy theorist. But, what are the chances of this being coincidental? The "from the wild" theory doesn't ha…

Jesus Christ, son of Mary, please don't bring Occam's razor in yet another internet discussion that tramples all over it. There is no reason to assume a lab leak when every disease we know that affects humans is _not_ the result of a lab leak. A natural origin is the most likely explanation and we don't need any other explanation unless there is strong evidence that something different happened, which we absolutely don't.

In fact the "lab leak theory" is exactly anti-science. In the most backwards fashion it starts not with an observation that must be explained with a hypothesis, but with a hypothesis -that the virus escaped from a lab- that is not supported by any observation. Its proponents then try to find evidence to justify their hypothesis. They don't find any, but they keep looking anyway because they are convinced it is true even in the complete absence of evidence. Then they accuse everyone else of hiding the evidence. "A-ha! That's why we can't prove this hypothesis we know is true! Because the evidence has been hidden from us!". This is the pattern of quackery, not science and not scientific hypothesis-making and verification.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps. But we had a pandemic during the Obama/Biden admin, but no stockpile of appropriate PPE, masks, etc. This was, we were told, the pro-science administration. Pandemics are such a common trope that Hollywood has made multiple (bad) movies revolving around them. Yet it appears we were unprepared for the basics. What Fauci said or why isn't important. The question we should be asking is: Why were in that positio…

This is wrong. The Obama administration did quite a bit to prevent future pandemics and the Trump administration dismantled it all pretty much immediately. Three things come to mind: the pandemic playbook, the pandemic response office, and the public health observers in China that were all recalled under Trump.

You're confused. Where did I mention "pandemic playbook"? It's a _very_ simple question:

Dear Uncle Sam - Where were the stockpiles of appropriate supplies?

That's it. We can move on to other discussions but let's start with the basics first.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#656

If this comment thread is the way the self proclaimed smartest forum on the web deals with articles like this then we're doomed. This article contributes zero actual evidence, is littered with out of context quotes (including of all places the title), doesn't appear to understand the science or the probabilities involved and finally is clearly written with an agenda. It shouldn't have been posted to HN in the first p…

I know something about probabilities. What is more likely, a virus occurs naturally blocks away from a Virology Institute that researches the very type of virus we're dealing with, or the virus was released from that Institute, either intentionally or unintentionally?

I think people are divided. There are those that are vaccinated, like me, and those that are not. I, for one, am done getting the vaccine. I've been jabbed 3 times, and if they can't make a vaccine that works, like they promised, then I would rather develop natural immunity, no matter what the science tells me. Science also tells me that the pesticides they spray on produce in the store are safe. I also avoid that produce as well.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#657
post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't just a random scapegoat. It just happens that the company (Ecohealth Alliance) proposed the gain-of-function research on the virus to DARPA, which was subsequently rejected as being too risky. NIH later funded similar research to the same company for its work in Wuhan during 2020. I'm far from a conspiracy theorist. But, what are the chances of this being coincidental? The "from the wild" theory doesn't ha…

Jesus Christ, son of Mary, please don't bring Occam's razor in yet another internet discussion that tramples all over it. There is no reason to assume a lab leak when every disease we know that affects humans is _not_ the result of a lab leak. A natural origin is the most likely explanation and we don't need any other explanation unless there is strong evidence that something different happened, which we absolutely d…

Scientists must do a better job of explaining how natural origin is the likely explanation, then. Otherwise, a lot of smart and educated people are going to put the wrong dots together.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#658

Can someone explain why the furin cleavage site is unusual from a natural evolutionary view?

It isn't unusual at all. Many coronaviruses including MERS have a furin cleavage site and they're common and likely evolved independently multiple times, showing that this acquisition of an FCS is common: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187350612... The FCS in SARS-CoV-2 is NSPRRAR, we now know of sarbecoviruses like like the BANAL viruses in Laos which have NSPAAR, some other viruses like RmYN02 h…

You're answering why furin cleavage sites in general are not unusual. Not why this particular furin cleavage site is unusual from a natural evolutionary view.

It's if you line up the related bat coronaviruses sequences they are all much the same in that region apart from Sars-Cov-2 which seems to have a clean insert of a PRRA sequence.

Hence the "bothered by the furin site and has a hard time (to) explain that as an event outside the lab, though there are possible ways in nature but highly unlikely." in the article. If it had got there through evolution you'd expect the adjacent sequences to vary more.

This kind of thing https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image...

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#659
post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be unpopular, but I'm actually fine with polititians manipulating the truth in that scenario (_if_ we accept as a starting point that the shortage of masks was already unavoidable, and the best option for public health was to convince the public to minimise purchases). Part of the job of politicians is to act as a rudder for the general public, and if tragedy of the commons applies to a scenario, a politicia…

a politician doing what they can to counteract that effect, even by deceipt, isn't fundamentally wrong A politician manipulating the public is an attack on democracy, since democracy relies on having an informed demos. Condoning such behaviour shows how much faith a person has in (true) democracy.

I don't have faith in true (aka direct) democracy. It relies on the average person being well informed enough about everything involved in running the government to make good decisions. It also relies on every person in the country acting in good faith for the benefit of all, which at best you could convince _most_ people to do _most_ of the time.

I do have faith in representative democracy to do _approximately_ the right thing most of the time, or at least minimise how bad the bad results will be.

In other words, I think people are better at deciding who to trust to run the country than they are at actually running the country. Given that, it should be no surprise that I also think there will be situations where the person trusted to run the country will realise that telling the public the whole truth will be a bad idea, because they are better at interpretting that truth than the public is.

Lying to the public is not (imo) a slippery slope that inevitably makes anyone who goes down it a monster. Polititians can be something other than perfectly honest and actually satan, and in fact they must be. I think a perfectly honest polititian would be a bad thing overall, even beyond the fact that their career wouldn't last very long.

Where on that scale they should be is in the end in the hands of the public, via our democratic vote. Certainly I don't support constant lies and hiding of things the public needs to know. But that isn't what we're discussing here, we're discussing a single lie used for a good cause (though I admit it was probably not the best solution to the problem, it was at least a logical concept: convince people who need masks less to not panic buy masks, leading to more masks for people who need them more).

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#660

If this comment thread is the way the self proclaimed smartest forum on the web deals with articles like this then we're doomed. This article contributes zero actual evidence, is littered with out of context quotes (including of all places the title), doesn't appear to understand the science or the probabilities involved and finally is clearly written with an agenda. It shouldn't have been posted to HN in the first p…

Imagine another headline then.

How about that (hypothetical):

Galileo Galilei believed the earth wasnt flat - but feared debate could hurt ‘international churchly harmony’

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