651–660 of 778 posts
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The stock didn't move down at all after the (negative?) earnings call either. Tesla is currently priced correctly.
Sure. Because no one believes that Tesla is going to reach level 5 autonomy and sell people cars that will make the owners $30K profit/yr. What is odd to me: no one thinks that promising and failing to deliver lvl 5 will hurt Tesla very much.
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Tesla has one more advantage over all the fossils: they're all in. The old guys are still challenged on mission, twisted up and fighting internally, bringing out weak token products designed to not hurt their ICE lines.
This is a good point — remember that Kodak released some of the first digital cameras. They still failed to switch fast enough.
If they went all-in on digital, the company would have still 'collapsed'.
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It's just a car, to the salesman. If I went in and looked for a Chevrolet Equinox and the dealer didn't have anyt, they'd try to sell me another model. Just like if you went to Best Buy looking for a certain TV, they'll just try to sell you the one on the shelf
I've had on multiple occasions gone into a dealership and had them tell me that they have the car i'm asking about, but that I don't want that car, and that I want this other car instead. I went into nissan to look at the Juke a while back, the asshole wouldn't even let me look at it until I literally started leaving. He just kept pressing the Rogue saying that I'd like it a lot more... Then when he finally took me t…
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As another German I can definitely tell you that no one here sees a Model 3 at anywhere near a BMW in production quality. If Tesla intends to market the Model 3 at the "BMW audience" - whatever differentiates them from, say, the "Audi audience" - they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. It is not limited to EV range. Also, Volkswagen is ramping up production on their Modular Electric…
> they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. Can you be more specific? What are Teslas lacking for the German market?
A car with a tiny trunk like the Model 3 is no good for driving on vacation with the kids.
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It's not just HN, it's everywhere . Anything that comes out of the mouth of Elon is an instant fact, and is repeated as fact until it's proven false. Then it was merely a prediction or plan. He just went on stage and told investors that their non-existent, full self-driving robot taxi fleet will cut the cost of personal transport by 90% over Uber, and will make the car owners $10-$30k+ ("in some cases more!") in annu…
Did you watch the presentation relating to the Tesla chip release - along with watching the fully self-driving vehicle video? They had the lead chip engineer explain their improvements, and they had their AI lead explain why they're at the lead for this - both very experienced and articulate people in their fields. I don't understand how you say it's a pipe dream unless you don't comprehend what they're sharing. If t…
They lie about autopilot and fsd being driverless, while they are irresponsibly deployed driver assistance technologies.
Their whole argument for feasibility of driverless cars is that humans user only their eyes too, and they have a lot of data. That is like saying that if you outfit a million gopro on people, they'll have better humanoid robots than Boston Dynamics.
This whole convoluted scheme about fronting cash, wow. If they are so confident about their cars earning 30k$ a year, they should have no problem raising money via equity or debt, and pivoting from a car manufacturer to a taxi company. Later they can fire the drivers and be driverless taxi company.
Solar City, another wow. I didn't know solar panels are made of batteries, or that Tesla is the only company that makes batteries in the world. Are you just closing your eyes and denying that they laid off solar City personnel? That the 2 billion dollar was nothing but a family buyout, and infact a spacex bond bailout?
According to Elon musk and Tesla fanboys, Tesla is an amazing company. They have the most performing and cheapest batteries in the world. They have the best AI chops, not just to make the best chips, but also use it to make the most automated factory, and have the technology to have their cars be fully driverless. Their factories are so advanced that air friction is a problem, and they use strobe light to see robots. But after all these advantages, they don't sell batteries, direct AI products, manufacturing expertise, driver assistance technologies, EV drivetrains etc. They only sell cars at luxury prices, that too at a loss, while having shitty interiors, fit, finish, panel gaps, paint etc.
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Did you watch the presentation relating to the Tesla chip release - along with watching the fully self-driving vehicle video? They had the lead chip engineer explain their improvements, and they had their AI lead explain why they're at the lead for this - both very experienced and articulate people in their fields. I don't understand how you say it's a pipe dream unless you don't comprehend what they're sharing. If t…
> Did you watch the presentation relating to the Tesla chip release - along with watching the fully self-driving vehicle video? Yeah, I did. It was very interesting, but it was also Computer Vision 101. Karpathy essentially explained how neural nets work to a non-technical audience. It was nice. But did you not assume this was exactly what they were doing? I certainly did. Do you think no one at Waymo/Google/Uber/App…
Citation needed for it not being industry leading, for their specific use case - hoped for TOPS along with maximum energy usage considerations? TOPS alone isn't the only factor, doing operations efficiently is required to keep energy usage as low as possible. Unless the lead engineer and whole chip team is pulling a fast one over Elon's head - he's not an idiot and not going to move forward in a direction he's not confident in.
I wouldn't say ~1MM chips per year is small volume, and that's fine that they're producing in small volume - especially because they have the next version coming out in I think Elon said 2 years. They're likewise not building the facility to produce them themselves, they're outsourcing it - I think they said to Samsung in Austin, TX?
I'm not making assumptions, and wasn't referring to that data you were referencing. Elon has said they had to divert resources from battery-related production; yes, it could be a convenient false story, however we can agree they're under a lot of pressure and have limited resources - so it's believable enough.
My whole argument doesn't revolve around "Tesla says" of your generalized statement - however it does try to put down my argument to elevate yours. If you don't want to give any amount of trust to what Tesla says - yes, they've not been honest/straight-forward in all situations which isn't ideal - then the foundation for your arguments aren't taking into account a lot of the proof points. Just like now I believe you're being genuine in your belief, and that we just have different experiences, understandings, analysis - I suppose it's possible you have financial interest in Tesla failing and haven't disclosed that, however I won't make that assumptions - and will assume you're speaking in good faith.
I don't really get what you're defending or your point is? Do you think Tesla will completely fail? Do you believe their stock is overvalued? That all auto manufacturers are now investing shittons of capital towards EV vehicles and infrastructure is perhaps the strongest signal that the market is there, and Tesla is leading it - and Elon believes they're 3-7+ years ahead of everyone else; and during even only 3 years they get get much further ahead in the race.
Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…
I find the Panasonic thing very weird. Tesla claims to be battery limited, and also mentioned that their popular and in demand power walls are being throttled by lack of batteries. Does make me wonder. Is Panasonic blackmailing Tesla with limited supply to influence Tesla's battery supply in China? Is Panasonic and/or Tesla lying about the situation?
It wouldn't be surprising if Panasonic halted expansion of the lines to concentrate efforts on fixing problems with current lines. But rather than admitting problems they tried to spin it with a weird press release.
Both statements can be true. Tesla is battery limited at 24 GWh/year, and Panasonic says they can meet current demands at 35 GWh/year.
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> Plausible FSD story. No. > Camera-based autonomy. That's among the reasons the former isn't true. > $35k price point That PR point has largely been abandoned. I mean, nominally they’ll still sell it to you if you jump through hoops, but they’ve deliberately made it less accessible because, as much as it was an important PR point, it was never really viable.
I've been on the fence about Tesla's approach (no Lidar) being the right way. But did you see the recent presentation at all? At this point I think it's clear that they have a high chance of succeeding. And I think the core argument is correct: If you don't have a neural net that can estimate depth from cameras as well as a human, you don't have a viable FSD system. The classifications that the system has to do to ac…
I agree that this statement is probably correct. But they're assuming the positive outcome here, and we have no proof that's correct.
In fact, it may well turn out that the current approaches to autonomous driving using neural networks won't ever yield a viable FSD system. In fact I'd take that side of the bet, to be honest.
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I would only lease a Tesla. Why be stuck holding the bag if the proverbial shit hits the fan?
What's the potential problem for a consumer? No battery replacements? Someone's gotta be making parts even if Tesla goes bust.
Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…
It still comes down to a race between Tesla figuring out the complete automotive supply chain and competitors figuring out EVs. Tesla had, and I would assume still has, production hell. Now it's delivery hell. Both are solved, controlled and executed constantly by other car companies (VW has an exception with the new Golf 8 that proves the rule). The competition is still struggling to solve EVs, some like Jaguar and…
And service, and spares. This is where Tesla is really struggling. Especially spare parts.