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Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

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Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#641

Post by ihateloggingin »

Jd wrote: post #330
tomjen3 wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I often find that when somebody claims "you can't do x" that we learn a lot by asking, why exactly is that. In your case I am wondering why exactly is that we can't turn people away - in aggregate it is likely to save more lives since seeing people dying would be an excellent motivating factor for others to make sure they pay their health care insurance -- and since they would therefore have it and would be able to g…

Frankly, reports from doctor-friends who work in ERs indicates that a large part of costs are treating people who are dealing with preventable often drug-related problems that create emergencies because the people involved are basically incapable of prevention. Seeing other people on the street homeless is apparently not enough incentive to keep people from becoming homeless themselves. I have no idea why seeing othe…

You can't incentivize a turnip to bleed.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#642

Post by ihateloggingin »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #571
cheald wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't give you a particular example in form of "job A replaced by robots, workers can't move anywhere else", because so far we've been very efficient at reallocating labor. Surely it makes sense to be able to cite examples of how we are failing to reallocate labor before complaining that we're not able to reallocate labor.

You're right. I can give you a fair share of personal anecdotes and general social lore related to rising unemployment for STEM-or-finance-educated people. I can point to first principles and proofs by enumeration. I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder" because this transformation is - I believe - underway, not yet finished…

> I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder"

I can.

Secretaries.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#643

Post by ihateloggingin »

cheald wrote: post #576
TeMPOraL wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. I can give you a fair share of personal anecdotes and general social lore related to rising unemployment for STEM-or-finance-educated people. I can point to first principles and proofs by enumeration. I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder" because this transformation is - I believe - underway, not yet finished…

Personal anecdotes and social lore make for pretty crappy science. I would love you to point me at first principles and proofs by enumeration. What I see, in looking at the numbers published by the government, is that the number of jobs has been consistently tracking with labor force since they started measuring it in 1925. If automation were wrecking jobs and making people unemployable, I'd expect that the 20th cent…

The 20th century also saw the introduction of labor law, working hours plummet, welfare state, etc..

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#644

Post by ihateloggingin »

jotm wrote: post #388
zxcdw wrote: post #313

I don't understand how people oppose unconditional basic income without also opposing the fact that automation decreases the amount of working hours available for a person(or in other words, the amount of jobs ), and thus decreases the amount of income per person, while maintaining productivity stable if not increasing it, thus making all sorts of goods cheaper. Someone enlighten me. These discussions always seem so…

I believe the problem lies in where exactly do you get the money for BI? Who pays to provide it for millions of people - obviously you can't tax the BI itself, so what's left is the rich and corporations, which incidentally are the ruling class at the moment and will most likely oppose BI. Also, health care will still need to be covered separately. BI is a great concept, and I hope some country will make it work, but…

There will be a segment of the ruling class who support it because they don't want to be removed from power.

There will also be the possibility of removing the ruling class from power in order to implement it.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#645

Post by ihateloggingin »

Tichy wrote: post #572
zxcdw wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On which fields is it obviously false that the status quo is to work 40'ish hours per week?

You are rephrasing what I said in the wrong way. I didn't make a comment on the status quo, just on the notion that everybody has to work 40 hours.

Technically correct is the worst kind of correct.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#646

Post by ihateloggingin »

summerdown2 wrote: post #87
cdoxsey wrote: post #59

I think in the end this wouldn't work. It'd play out something like this: A certain percentage of the population would stop working entirely since they no longer need to. (Particularly when politicians push the basic income amount up to placate constituencies) Because workers bow out of the system certain industries lose productive capacity. Maybe we stop producing enough food, or enough fuel. Prices rise (assuming a…

> A certain percentage of the population would stop working entirely since they no longer need to. Everyone I've ever seen argue this has had strong opinions about how other (more greedy and venal) people would act. They, of course, would still work, but the great unwashed masses would sit on their backsides and take the money. I suggest, instead, we try specifics. Given a basic income, I wouldn't be lazy. Nor would…

If there were no work left in the world for humans (and yet I was still allowed to live), I might devote my entire energies to the education of my daughter.

Today, that is called idleness. But in that future world, perhaps it would not.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#647

Post by ihateloggingin »

Zimahl wrote: post #223
cdoxsey wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They, of course, would still work, but the great unwashed masses would sit on their backsides and take the money. The counter argument would be the existence of industries that people will already not work in. For example Italy has a 38.5% youth unemployment rate. It also can't get enough workers for the garment industry. So why don't the youth of Italy want these jobs? Maybe the work is seen as menial (so a cultural…

The question is: how many people currently working would stop working if they didn't need to? (particularly in the areas vital for the basic functioning of society) That question is so impossibly difficult to answer that I don't think any system we come up with won't have potentially disastrous consequences. I don't think it's all that difficult to answer. When I leave the office building I work at the end of my day,…

Supply and demand. If the wages on offer are inadequate to secure janitorial services, they will go up.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#648

Post by ihateloggingin »

greedo wrote: post #420
wavefunction wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You shouldn't, of course we could limit couples to replacement rate of birth, if that's 2.1 for couples or 1.05 for individuals, they could sell a fraction or all of their "right to reproduce" to people who want to have 3 or more kids.

Sure. China loves the One Child policy. No horrible side effects at all. Social engineering like this is fraught with huge risks.

Right. Let's starve them out. That's not social engineering!

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#649

Post by ihateloggingin »

jeffdavis wrote: post #444
mrgoldenbrown wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the number of nurses willing to work for current rates goes down, then the market rate for nurses will go up. Eventually it will be high enough that being a nurse is more attractive than being a programmer.

Nursing is hard work, and if someone is already "comfortable", there's not a lot of incentive to study for it and do it unless the pay goes WAY up. There are a lot of jobs like this, where the threat of discomfort is the primary motivator. Across the economy it would take a huge amount of money to incentivize already-comfortable people to do them. And if the jobs don't get done, then someone else is uncomfortable.

Sounds like an ideal situation to incentivize the solution of discomfort without creating more discomfort.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#650

Post by ihateloggingin »

dragonwriter wrote: post #341
TheFuture wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market rate for investment bankers is more attractive than my job. Doesn't mean I can just be an investment banker tomorrow. Or a nurse. If I live comfortably on my basic income doing whatever, how do I become qualified to work? Remember we have college grads who aren't qualified to work, and they've spent their entire lives being educated.

> The market rate for investment bankers is more attractive than my job. Doesn't mean I can just be an investment banker tomorrow. Or a nurse. If the supply-demand imbalance is sufficient and durable, people looking for nurses / investment bankers / etc. will pay currently-unqualified people with the relevant basic aptitudes to train for those jobs (with a post-training commitment to accept employment if offered, or…

Well put.
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