How much money did we spend on this nothingburger?
US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
641–650 of 1001 posts
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#642[flagged]
Any American's I've spoke to either are so sick of wars and of course don't want this or they actively oppose it.
The only people you find wanting this war is israelis and their kind. They sit back and relax while having their blackmail controlled, ancient, American politicians do all of the dirty work while sending their sons and daughters to die for isreal.
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#643Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there a…
They did not manage to bomb Germany, North Korea, or North Vietnam into submission and they tried for years. Winning through bombing alone has never worked.
No, it would achieve the three primary goals of this conflict.
It would cause catastrophic economic damage to Iran, and given how politically unstable Iran currently is (millions of people rioted earlier this year), the regime would not survive the oncoming civil unrest.
It would be a humanitarian disaster, but from the US/Israel's point of view, it would be a victory. An Iran with no electricity has no capacity for industry, and has no ability to manufacture missiles, drones, or have a nuclear program.
Without ability to manufacture missiles, Iran would be unable coerce people to buy into it's Hormuz transit toll system, and the strait would reopen.
This weakened Iran would have no ability to produce nukes, close the strait, and make missiles; for at least a decade while they recover economically.
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#644Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.
That analysis requires discovering what the US’s objectives were. Not sure we can…
The main one was stayed to be regine change. That didnt happen
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#645This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.
[flagged]
Israel hates negotiations. Netanyahu funded Hamas. And you're writing comedy and I just can't be bothered. You got me. No you didn't.
Only a Zionist would call equal rights and the right to self-determination a "maximalist" position.
Answer me one thing. Who will be the people who flow into Israel while the whole world sees the ugly state it has become?
A weirdly supremacist ethno-state is not a solution. It might seem like a good idea but I don't think it has legs to be honest.
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#646This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…
Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.
Would a better image be destroying the power plants and water desalination of 90M people?
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#647This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…
I'd say more like a loss for the US than a win for Iran. > 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. Everyone knew from the beginning that closing the strait was something Iran would do. But it is current US government that is either inept or too smart for…
> thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use
I have to assume that at least someone in the room was well aware that all oil is not created equal and that US refineries were designed from the beginning for Venezuelan and similar oil rather than US oil.
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#648Earlier quoted context omitted.
Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.
Would a better image be destroying the power plants and water desalination of 90M people?
One should never draw a redline they aren't willing to cross. Trump of all people should know this, he gave Obama shit for years over the uninforced redline with Syria over chemical weapon use.
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#649Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.
> So I think there will be another leader elected soon. That alone is another clear sign of Iran's ruling regime emerging as the clear victor. Not only there was no regime change but also their primary regional and global antagonists tried their hardest and completely failed to overthrow them. Moreover, some neighboring countries who were in the US sphere of influence were very quick to fold and remove themselves fro…
Is this an AI comment?
1. A power struggle is more likely than an election. Even if an election, it would be a bit Putinesque considering the IRGC has killed 30k protesters this year, that likely included any viable opposition leaders.
2. Only Qatar, and it is speculated because it was one of 3 countries in the region not intimated by the US about the attack, and they aren't very happy about that.
Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
#650Earlier quoted context omitted.
The companies with billions on the line didn't seem to think Iran's threats to attack ships were impotent. Their military capabilities are diminished in the short term, but if their ability to impose a toll on the Strait of Hormuz holds then that's a massive win for Iran in the medium/long term. A mere $2M per ship represents 10% of Iran's GDP. They would become the only country in the world to impose a toll on inter…
Hard to spin your supreme leader and all your generals and military commanders being flattened as a win.
The thing to remember about Iran is it's a country run by religious fanatics. Ask a secular democracy if they would trade the lives of most of their political and military leaders for a 10% boost to GDP and they would look at you like you're insane. Ask 86 year old Ali Khamenei if he would trade dying from an Israeli bomb landing on his house for Iran establishing a stranglehold on global oil trade and securing $100 billion in annual toll revenue, and he would have been ecstatic.