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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#611

Post by 8note »

goranmoomin wrote: post #583

TBH as an outsider, I am just so frustrated on Trump deciding that US invading Iran large scale is a great idea. (And why even is it involving Israel for gods sake?!) If you guys wanted to be supportive to the Iranian protests, US could instead just selectively target some of the leadership and give the protests a push (and give the whole world a hint that US is supportive of them). After 40 years of Iran constructin…

if you look at the iranian response over the past month, the theocracy really hasn't played into it.

no calls to jihad, no ayatollah dorecting anything, no nothing.

as far as i can tell, the revolution is already dead. if the US had just sat around, chances are that iran would have moved towards something more like a constitutional monarchy. still the ayatollah as a figure head and religious leader, but with the rest of the power in the democratic institutions' hands

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#612

Post by tristanj »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare.

Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food, people will starve; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots bigger than the ones seen in January.

The Iranian government would have no ability to coordinate a response, and Iran would collapse within a week. The country would devolve into chaos, into paramilitary factions, and a civil war would start, similar to in Syria.

The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran.

Once Iran showed it had no ability to prevent the US/Israel from doing a indiscriminate bombing campaign, it was clear the US and Israel could always win this war through this outcome.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#613

Post by gambutin »

jauco wrote: post #608
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

It’s not the ME countries who are profiting, because they can’t export. So it’s a net loss. (Saudi and oman win a bit, but in no comparison to the iraq kuwait loss) The winners are mostly: Russia, Iran itself and (margibally) the US. But mostly Russia.

Over the past few months their oil facilities have been heavily attacked. It’s hard to believe they’re actually making a big profit from this in the short term.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#614

Post by karim79 »

This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#615

Post by gambutin »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Let’s discuss this again in two weeks. I suggest.

This ceasefire will defuse the global economy’s tensions. That’s its sole purpose.

It’s unlikely they’ll find enough common ground for a lasting agreement.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#616

Post by dfedbeef »

tristanj wrote: post #467
JeremyNT wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most wars, everybody loses. The best Iran could hope for given its inevitable defeat by a far superior aggressor was to deny the invader any kind of spoils. And by those standards they seem to be succeeding. So now we have a pointless war that has resulted in thousands of dead with no tangible benefit to anybody, except of course those cronies of the administration doing insider trading.

This is not pointless. It exists to exchange a future nuclear war with Iran with a conventional war today. The US and Israel can fight a conventional war with Iran. In a nuclear war, Israel would be destroyed by nuclear missiles in the two days. The possibility of a nuclear Iran is an existential crisis for Israel, and Israel will do anything possible to prevent Iran from gaining nukes. Most people do not comprehend…

You think Iran's takeaway from this will be that they don't need nukes?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#617

Post by locknitpicker »

ekr wrote: post #563
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

> So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

That alone is another clear sign of Iran's ruling regime emerging as the clear victor. Not only there was no regime change but also their primary regional and global antagonists tried their hardest and completely failed to overthrow them.

Moreover, some neighboring countries who were in the US sphere of influence were very quick to fold and remove themselves from the conflict, while others saw their primary economy attacked by Iran and helplessly so.

Forget about Iranian regime's internal opposition. So did the US.

Is there any question on who emerged the clear winner?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#618

Post by Den_VR »

alsetmusic wrote: post #581
ekr wrote: post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

> I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. What does that have to do with anything? The USA (my country, sadly) provoked a far smaller nation and…

[dead]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#619

Post by krainboltgreene »

tristanj wrote: post #612
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there a…

> The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran.

That is such an incredible interpretation of the situation that basically requires you to ignore basically every economic problem being faced from this insanity currently and in the near future.

Sure, the US an Israel were just "too concerned" about the Iranian economy to do war crimes.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#620

Post by bestouff »

Yoric wrote: post #593
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.

What's à good image of the US nowadays ? Artemis maybe. That's all.
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