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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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631–640 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can, yes. But this is likely harder than you think. Suppose Trump puts a bunch of tariffs on cheap Chinese tires so that American tires are price competitive again (no idea if this happened, this is a hypothetical). If the next president removes those tariffs it would look like fucking over the tire manufacturers in whichever swing state they live in.

That's only if American tire companies choose to invest as if the tariffs will stick around for longer than Trump does.

This isn't the first time Trump imposed tariffs. Did Biden remove them during his term?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the FT article linked upthread, https://archive.is/J09AN > A broader change to the USMCA also looks likely, with Carney saying there had been “so many violations” that the free trade agreement needs “a renegotiation”.

Yes, that is what i meant by "the issue identified that needs to be addressed is the US president being a dick."

Trump tariffs are based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, overriding USMCA and other trade agreements. Any renegotiation of USMCA wouldn't stop the potential use of IEEPA to selectively override parts of USMCA v2.

It's more likely that USMCA violations referenced by Carney and Freeland were done by Mexico/China, at the economic expense of both Canada and USA.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's different now, since at that time there were no weapons of total annihilation (and now there are quite some). That's exactly why 'expansionist' regimes were ready to start some next war, being eager "to get some extra land" as a result of said war. The current war is different: this is the war that started not out of appetite towards foreign lands, but, basically, out of primal fear, the fear concerning safety.…

Haha please describe the NATO invasion of Russia. This sounds entertaining.

Easy.

1. Crimea, Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, Zaporozhskaya Oblast are now parts of Russia.

2. NATO still thinks those are parts of Ukraine.

3. Some of NATO countries are now in talks about sending their troops to Ukraine.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#634
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any relationship between reserve currency, national security and power projection? https://apnews.com/article/shipbuilding-china-united-states-... > In only two decades, China has grown to be the dominant player in shipbuilding, claiming more than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, while the U.S. share has fallen to just 0.1%, posing serious economic and national security challenges for the…

its kinda funny though, since US lack of shipbuilding is directly the result of protectionist law in the jones act get rid of the jones act, and you get americans on boats again, rather than trucks

Do the waterways support ship freight anymore? We'd need to redevelop the Great Lakes and riverways I think.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha please describe the NATO invasion of Russia. This sounds entertaining.

Easy. 1. Crimea, Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, Zaporozhskaya Oblast are now parts of Russia. 2. NATO still thinks those are parts of Ukraine. 3. Some of NATO countries are now in talks about sending their troops to Ukraine.

> 1. Crimea, Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, Zaporozhskaya Oblast are now parts of Russia.

Not factually, nor legally.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#636
post #585

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What can I say except: I don’t buy that at all. I lived in Los Angeles for 8 years and Boston for 5. There are some cultural differences but the people there are still just human. When a region and a culture declines, it gets more nostalgic and reactionary. The arrow of cause and effect goes that way. Places like Detroit were innovation centers and much more culturally open before their entire economy was rug pulled.…

Damn. Because California has been rug pulled. The underground weed economy was responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in black market revenue. That money's now gone to Oklahoma because the legal cannabis laws are more favorable there, leaving a absolutely gaping hole in California's economy that can't be replaced by growing alternative crops like saffron, or, in keeping with the illegal theme, poppies/heroin…

That’s fascinating. I always figured that real estate hyperinflation just drove all the arts and cool counterculture stuff away.

The upper Midwest had a lot of culture too. Disco (Chicago was a big place for that), Motown (named after Detroit), techno (also Detroit), industrial (Cleveland / Akron), and house music (Chicago and Detroit) all either came from or had large contributions from what is now called the rust belt.

That whole region used to be solidly Democratic. It drifted a bit R in the 90s and 2000s until Trump flipped it with one word: tariffs. Another quote I remember from a guy in Michigan in 2016: "when Trump started talking about trade... I'd die for this man. I don't care what else he does."

Different people have different reasons for supporting a politician, but for these people it's... I'm not even sure it's hope at this point. For some of them it's revenge. They feel lied to and betrayed.

I guess that's part pretty different from the old Cali weed industry. Nobody promised them anything. For these people the Democrats told them NAFTA would bring jobs.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#637

There is away out of this mess: A U.S. Senate bill that would require congressional approval for new tariffs gained more Republican support on Friday [1]. Trump is not going to back down since that will make him look like a loser. Neither is China. But GOP can help Trump out by creating a new law that automatically expires all new tariffs after 60 days unless approved by congress. This will let Trump extricate his he…

To be clear, this is going to have to pass the house. Then, Trump will veto it. Then, the senate will need 16 Republican senators (30% of the party) to vote against it. And it's still a toss-up if Trump will even obey it or if he'll executively order customs to continue the Tariffs. So unless Republicans suddenly grow a spine, which is unlikely given their current strategy is "hide the stock ticket on Fox news" and p…

My assumption is that Trump understands what a mess he has gotten himself into and wants to extricate his head, without losing face. Congressional action will allow him to do that because he can blame congress for undoing his tariffs which was a good idea all along. This is the only way out.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#638
post #72

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> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?

Reading the parent's comment I was expecting the UK GDP to have been plunging since Brexit, but that's not the case apparently[0]. Some sectors clearly profited from it, compensating for those who went down the drain. GDP isn't everything and from the outside the UK feel like in a very bad place, but I wonder what's the metric that really captures that status. Inequalities aren't getting that much wider as well. http…

Yup. Sadly, discussion of Brexit on HN is trash tier. Almost every claim about it you'll find here is completely wrong. Not in the sense of differing values or priorities, but in a "this is totally made up" kind of way. It's really concerning that so many people's understanding of the UK and Europe have suffered such a huge rupture with reality. The map is not the territory!

Leaving the EU had no effect on the British economy. Not positive, not negative. Even the trade balance with the EU merely continued along its long term trend, so apparently the single market wasn't delivering any value in the end. The closest thing you can find to an economic impact was the currency dump that happened the moment the result was called, but the economy did fine in the post-referendum years and so those traders who panicked just took a bath and the currency recovered later. Not that a currency devaluation is such a bad thing for the UK anyway, its exports could use the help.

Even some non-economic impacts failed to materialize, in both directions. The UK rejoined the Horizon research programme (supposedly a "cherry" that would be lost), but also the reduction in immigration that voters were promised didn't happen either, in fact immigration went into overdrive.

A lot of people who support the EU don't realize any of this, partly because the news doesn't report on things that don't happen so they never hear about it. But mostly it's because they conflate predictions with reality. For example, there's someone saying in this thread that "the narrative was pretty catastrophic" followed by "I don't know how things panned out". And when I pointed out this lack of impact less than two weeks ago here, I got a reply that cited another pile of predictions as a refutation:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43469356

It's a systemic problem that crops up in other areas too. During COVID modeling predictions were regularly repeated as if they'd already happened, and you see the same mental slippage in climate change discourse. The line between "we think this might happen", "this will happen" and "this has already happened" blurs to nothing.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His argument is pretty circular, which is e.g. not that Americans would work for Vietnamese wages but that we'd produce automation that can do the same work. But in that case: why aren't we doing that today? The answer is that it's still more advantageous to pay Vietnam to make our clothes. It's basically just no free lunch theorem: we can afford the CapEx of doing such a thing today precisely because we have better…

You can't automate something that you can't already do manually (IMO/IME).

We could already do it, then we automated huge portions of it, then as other economies matured we handed that work to them and developed into a high-margin, high-income knowledge economy.

We can rewind back to a middle income economy if we want, I guess, but I don't see the appeal.

I'm open to the argument that we want some domestic mass manufacturing capacity for reasons of self-sufficiency, supply chain resilience, etc, but just come out and say it: we need handouts to keep certain strategic industries alive despite their lack of economic viability in the marketplace.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#640
post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

> In the US, a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support owning a house with a yard, a non-working spouse, a car, and multiple children. That was never sustainable in the long run and no one can bring that back.

Why was it not sustainable? Clearly the houses were there, and the non-working spouses, and the car and the children...
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