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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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621–630 of 1001 posts

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#621

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Photons hit a human eye and then the human came up with language to describe that and then encoded the language into the LLM. The LLM can capture some of this relationship, but the LLM is not sensing actual photons, nor experiencing actual light cone stimulation, nor generating thoughts. Its "world model" is several degrees removed from the real world. So whatever fragment of a model it gains through learning to comp…

> then the human came up with language to describe that and then encoded the language into the LLM No individual human invented language, we learn it from other people just like AI. I go as far as to say language was the first AGI, we've been riding the coats tails of language for a long time.

You're saying that language is an intelligence?

So, c++ is intelliengece as well?

It's an intelligence that can independently make deductions and create new ideas?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#622
post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this. A metaphor I like is that the reason why humans say the night sky is beautiful is because they see that it is, whereas an LLM says it because it’s been said enough times in its training data.

I mean, I think the reason I would say the night sky is “beautiful” is because the meaning of the word for me is constructed from the experiences I’ve had in which I’ve heard other people use the word. So I’d agree that the night sky is “beautiful”, but not because I somehow have access to a deeper meaning of the word or the sky than an LLM does. As someone who (long ago) studied philosophy of mind and (Chomskian) li…

The fact that things are constructed by neurons in the brain, and are a representation of other things - does not preclude your representation from being deeper and richer than LLM representations.

The patterns in experience are reduced to some dimensions in an LLM (or generative model). They do not capture all the dimensions - because the representation itself is a capture of another representation.

Personally, I have no need to reassure myself whether I am a special snowflake or not.

Whatever snowflake I am, I strongly prefer accuracy in my analogies of technology. GenAI does not capture a model of the world, it captures a model of the training data.

If video tools were that good, they would have started with voxels.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#623
post #201

Not a decade. More like a century, and that is if society figures itself out enough to do some engineering on a planetary scale, and quantum computing is viable. Fundamentally, AGI requires 2 things. First it needs to be able to operate without information, learning as it goes. The core kernel should be such that it doesn't have any sort of training on real world concepts, only general language parsing that it can us…

You want a "core kernel" with "general language parsing" but no training on real-world concepts. Read that sentence again. Slowly. What do you think "general language parsing" IS if not learned patterns from real-world data? You're literally describing a transformer and then saying we need to invent it. And your TLS example is deranged. You want an agent to discover the TLS protocol by randomly sending ethernet packe…

Please make your substantive points without swipes or name-calling. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#624
Is there any more information about the Eureka educational project? I think it's probably the wrong endpoint to target teaching about AI first (too complex, too many pre-reqs), really these tools should work from the base of the educational pyramid and move up from there.

There is a lot of success already in adaptive learning in elementary school for instance, my kids are blasting through math on Prodigy and it seems like Synthesis may be a great tool as well, and I believe we're just at the beginning of this wave. For that level of learning I don't think we need incredibly more capability, just better application.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#625

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about this, though - cars have been built before. We understand what's necessary to get those 9s. I'm sure there were some new problems that had to be solved along the way, but fundamentally, "build good car" is known to be achievable, so the process of "adding 9s" there makes sense. But this method of AI is still pretty new, and we don't know it's upper limits. It may be that there are no more 9s to add, o…

While you are right about the broader (and sort of ill defined) chase toward 'AGI' - another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually.And, if you work on applications using LLMs you can pretty easily see that Karpathy's sentiment is likely correct. You see it because you do it. Even simple applications are shaped like this, albeit each 9 takes less time than self driving cars for a simple…

> another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually

Current self driving cars only work in American roads. Maybe Canada too, not sure how their roads are. Come to Europe/anywhere else and every other road would be intractable. Much tighter lanes, many turns you have a little mirror to see who's coming on the other side, single car at a time lanes that you need to "understand" who goes first, mountain roads where you sometimes need to reverse for 100m when another car is coming so it's wide enough that they can pass before you can keep going forward, etc.

Many things like this that would require another 2 or 3 "nines" as the guy put it than acceptable quality in American huge roads.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4NWIt...

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How to tell if you regurgitated this comment vs being truly creative? If you can show me objectively, I’m sold.

That's not the creativity aspect, my comment is an observation, which, by definition, is a regurgitation of events. Edit: This also demonstrates that people think (erroneously) that AI pumping out code, or content, or even essays, is inventive, but it's not. This is merely a description and reduction, both of which AI can do, but neither of which are an invention.

Actually I think the line between creative and regurgitate is so blurred you can’t tell me a single creative thing you did. So if 99% of people are not creative, and just regurgitate then why we keep AI standards so high?

Can you show me one single thing you did in your life that was truly creative and not regurgitated?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interview which I've watched recently with Rich Sutton left me with the impression that AGI is not just a matter of adding more 9s. The interviewer had an idea that he took for granted: that to understand language you have to have a model of the world. LLMs seem to udnerstand language therefore they've trained a model of the world. Sutton rejected the premise immediately. He might be right in being skeptical here…

> that to understand knowledge you have to have a model of the world. You have a small but important mistake. It's to recite (or even apply ) knowledge. To understand does actually require a world model. Think of it this way: can you pass a test without understanding the test material? Certainly we all saw people we thought were idiots do well in class while we've also seen people we thought were geniuses fail. The t…

Fantastic comment!

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#629
post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I think the reason I would say the night sky is “beautiful” is because the meaning of the word for me is constructed from the experiences I’ve had in which I’ve heard other people use the word. So I’d agree that the night sky is “beautiful”, but not because I somehow have access to a deeper meaning of the word or the sky than an LLM does. As someone who (long ago) studied philosophy of mind and (Chomskian) li…

The more I learn about AI, biology and the brain, the more it seems to me that the difference between life and machines is just complexity. People are just really really complex machines. However there are clearly qualitative differences between the human mind and any machines we know of yet, and those qualitative differences are emergent properties, in the same way that a rabbit is qualitatively different than a sto…

I’d say sophistication.

Observing the landscape enables us to spot useful resources and terrain features, or spot dangers and predators. We are afraid of dark enclosed spaces because they could hide dangers. Our ancestors with appropriate responses were more likely to survive.

A huge limitation of LLMs is that they have no ability to dynamically engage with the world. We’re not just passive observers, we’re participants in our environment and we learn from testing that environment through action. I know there are experiments with AIs doing this, and in a sense game playing AIs are learning about model worlds through action in them.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#630
post #504
post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

I'd bet the other way because I think Moore's law like advances in compute will make things much easier for researchers. Like I was watching Hinton explain LLMs to Jon Stewart and they were saying they came up with the algorithm in 1986 but then it didn't really work for the decades until now because the hardware wasn't up to it ( https://youtu.be/jrK3PsD3APk?t=1899 ) If things were 1000x faster you could semi random…

You’re making the common assumption that “the algorithm“ is everything we need to get to AGI and it’s just a question of scaling.
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