Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#621

Post by Infinitesimus » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 3:26 PM UTC

aguyfromnb wrote: post #618

PietdeVries wrote: post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But still - there are Tesla's driving everywhere, including ones with autopilot enabled, and I have yet to see the first Waymo car on the road... The technology might be/seem superior, commercially Tesla has cleary won the race..

> Tesla has cleary won the race.. But Waymo is pilot-testing autonomous taxis and Teslas have a "greater than zero chance" of making it to your destination without intervention.

First Mover Advantage is still pretty important though.

Tesla is selling cards today, Waymo is not. Tesla's cars are good-enough for most of the buyers so Waymo's technical superiority has to bs much much better warrant the attention and change in public perspective.

On very important thing is tesla has established that your will get better with software updates over time. Other cars have nice adaptive cruise control and self-driving tech but the thought that the car you bought today can in a few months drive better is a massive psychological advantage imo. I don't think Waymo can compete on self-driving features anymore. They have to make the better car and driving experience as a holistic package to stick

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#622

Post by Diederich » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #356

Diederich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Evidence could also be a self-driving vehicle that doesn't drive under the beds of trucks, run people over or is statistically safer than human drivers. The relevant part is the last: "statistically safer than human drivers." Every driving system that has existed or will exist will make errors due to extremely novel situations. Given the energies involved, such errors will lead to crashes, some of which will be hor…

> statistically safer, by a fair margin, than human drivers And not just that, but individually they have to be seen as safer. As in, I am not going to be happy with a computer driving me around that is merely safer than an average driver. Given that I'm middle aged, don't drink and drive, or drive while exhausted, etc, and I haven't ever caused an accident, I'm going to need a little more assurance.

I understand, that's what I was, roughly, trying to capture with 'by a fair margin'.

I believe Elon Musk has talked about targeting '10x safer' than an average driver. My guess is that's a sufficient margin to cover the vast majority of better than average drivers.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#623

Post by vbezhenar » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 3:44 PM UTC

unexaminedlife wrote: post #599

Animats wrote: post #472

Compare Google's system from five years ago.[1] (at 7:42) This new video is at n00b level compared to that. [1] https://embed.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_ca...

I have mixed feelings about this. I realize the number and types of sensors that exist in Waymo's cars provide far more data to the driverless car. But then when I really think about it, humans have been driving with only 2 sensors (eyes) for a long time with relatively good success. With the improvement of computer algorithms to help the cars make better decisions than humans, I'm not 100% sure if the long-term solu…

Humans also have 20+ years of experience living in human society. You need to develop AI as strong as humans to match that.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#624

Post by vbezhenar » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 3:46 PM UTC

lawlessone wrote: post #601

unexaminedlife wrote: post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have mixed feelings about this. I realize the number and types of sensors that exist in Waymo's cars provide far more data to the driverless car. But then when I really think about it, humans have been driving with only 2 sensors (eyes) for a long time with relatively good success. With the improvement of computer algorithms to help the cars make better decisions than humans, I'm not 100% sure if the long-term solu…

>humans have been driving with only 2 sensors (eyes) for a long time with relatively good success. 1.25 million die a year in road accidents. We should try to do better than human.

But also keeping speed high enough. You won't have many fatal road accidents with speed limited to 5 km/h. But it won't be very useful transportation. Those timid cars might be safer but people might prefer more aggressive style to reduce travel time.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#625

Post by imtringued » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 4:05 PM UTC

jiofih wrote: post #594

Animats wrote: post #472

Compare Google's system from five years ago.[1] (at 7:42) This new video is at n00b level compared to that. [1] https://embed.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_ca...

Your comment makes no sense. Besides the fact that this is showing Lidar scans with depth and 3D textures (does look cooler), the relevant part which is feature detection is a lot poorer. It doesn’t seem to detect lane markers or boundaries, sidewalks, traffic signs, or show path estimates like you can clearly see in the Tesla video. Plus the texturing implies the route is pre-mapped while Autopilot is doing all the…

Your comment just doesn't make any sense in context of the linked video. I can only assume you did not watch the video. I have uploaded the most important scenes to imgur so you don't have to waste your time finding the key scenes. The results will surprise you because they show exactly all the features that you claimed that google didn't have. https://imgur.com/a/6zHt8vP

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#626

Post by imtringued » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 4:12 PM UTC

ec109685 wrote: post #563

yogrish wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please understand, Tesla works only with only Camera & Radars (at L2 level). Where as Google Waymo works with pretty expensive and lot of redundant sensors ie., 360degree LIDAR, cameras & Radars (at L4 level). Tesla sells vehicles in volumes, Waymo doesn't (as it is exhorbitant). Hence comparison is not apple to apple. I do agree Visualisation in the google video is more appealing. I assume Tesla also has state of ar…

What are these levels you are referring to? We drive just fine with two cameras.

And two actuators in every eye ball and two big actuators between the head and the main body.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#627

Post by jdance » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

Imagine removing the camera layer and drive yourself using those lines and boxes, without perceiving the "actual" world at all. Which is what the AI is doing. It seems completely terrifying to me :)

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#628

Post by _ea1k » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 4:34 PM UTC

scrumbledober wrote: post #149

_ea1k wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've gotten the impression that the "firing people in weird and capricious ways" bit has been greatly exaggerated. I do think anyone taking this has to expect grueling and challenging work. The job description practically demands that.

Anecdotal evidence here, but I have a friend who worked in their palo alto office for several years. One day as Elon was walking through the Fremont factory he saw a large empty floor space and asked someone why there were no workers occupying that space. It was then decided that her job would be moved from Palo Alto to Fremont. She was not fired in a weird and capricious way, but she was managed out of the company i…

I do not doubt your story at all and have heard a few similar stories. My comment was specifically about the Business Insider story that someone else linked, as I feel like that one was exaggerated.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#629

Post by Ntrails » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

anchpop wrote: post #385

Ntrails wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and as soon as I can sit facing the other way and not be responsible for the cars fuck ups that's fine. Until then semi autonomy can fuck right off. I'd rather trust myself 100% of the time than a machine 99% of the time.

Sure, that's your decision. I'd rather have the car and I work together to prevent accidents, or let the car take over at low speeds

> or let the car take over at low speeds

Except arguably that's when the car is least effective! That is when pedestrians walk out or vans reverse with the wrong kind of shiny paintwork. Reaction time is less important at low speeds vs effective and accurate processing.

Actively driving results in my attention being engaged, all the time. Passively letting the car drive will 100% reduce my engagement, and when the car fails I will not notice. And sure, for now it's my decision, until it becomes mandatory on new cars alongside automatic breaking etc...

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#630

Post by jiofih » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

thdrdt wrote: post #603

jiofih wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s system can still estimate where the car should be without markings, just like humans do with their vision.

Well it you look at some videos you can see that there are times Tesla thinks repair lines are road marks especially when the sun is reflected by the lines. When the car has no real idea of its position in 3D space this gives problems.

Same as humans, except it has GPS, radar and other sensors to help.