Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

GPT-5 is behind schedule

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

611–620 of 1001 posts

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#611

Post by zer0tonin »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #520
anshulbhide wrote: post #510

I don't really care. I had to come up with a proposal to build a new R&D centre recently. To provide context on what our company does, I wrote a web scraper to scrape our own website (faster than going to IT) using Replit Agent and then fed that into O1 as context to come up with the proposal. In less than an hour. There is no going back.

both you and another highlynupvoted poster have said some versioj "never going back" or "dont want to go back" or "the tools that exist now are already insane" And while I'm happy for you, I don't see the relevance? this post was not about "going back" or "stopping the use of AI tools" at all?

That's called a coping mechanism.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#612

Post by simondotau »

mitemte wrote: post #517
simondotau wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just today I got Claude to convert a company’s PDF protocol specification into an actual working python implementation of that protocol. It would have been uncreative drudge work for a human, but I would have absolutely paid a week of junior dev time for it. Instead I wrote it alongside AI and it took me barely more than an hour. The best part is, I’ve never written any (substantial) python code before.

Similar experience here. These tools are so good for side stepping the one or two day grinds.

For me, it's allowing me to do things I wouldn't have even attempted before. I'm writing in languages I've never written in before (python) and dealing with stuff I've never dealt with before (multicast UDP). This isn't complicated stuff by any stretch, but AI means I can be highly productive in python without needing to spend any time learning python.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#613

Post by weatherlite »

bloppe wrote: post #485
lumost wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point it’s quite likely that they could pivot and just be the chatgpt company. I’ve found chatgpt-4o with web search and plugins to be more useful than o1 for most tasks. It’s possible we’re nearing the end of the LLM race, but I doubt that’s the end of the AI story this decade, or OpenAI.

Ya I think they probably will, but "the chatgpt company" is not worth 157B. It might not even be worth 1B.

Not worth 1B ? Come on man. I see them improving the tool enough for most people willing to pay 50$ a month for a subscription. And for most companies to be willing to pay 300$ per employee. It's perhaps not there yet but I'm sure they'll reach this amount of value for their offering. It remains to be seen what competition will do to the prices though.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#614

Post by saagarjha »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #557
superultra wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I give AI a “water cooler chat” level of veracity, which means it’s about as true as chatting with a coworker at a water cooler when that used to happen. Which is to say if I just need to file the information away as a “huh” it’s fine, but if I need to act on it or cite it, I need to do deeper research.

Yes, so often I see/hear people asking "But how can you trust it?!" I'm asking it a question about social dynamics in the USSR, what's the worst thing that'll happen?! I'll get the wrong impression? What are people using this for? are you building a nuclear reactor where every mistake is catastrophic? Almost none of my interactions with LLMs "Matter", they are things I'm curious about, if 10 out of 100 things I learn…

Yes, but how do you know which is which?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#615

Post by BillyTheKing »

LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

just a question for understanding - if we say 'it learns', does it mean it actually learns this as part of its training data? or does this mean it's stored in a vector DB and it retrieves information based on vector search and then includes it in the context window for query responses?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#616

Post by intellectronica »

LASR wrote: post #610

So the team I lead does a lot of research around all the “plumbing” around LLMs. Both technical and from a product-market perspectives. What I’ve learned is that for the most part that AI revolution is not going to be because of PHD-level LLMs. It will be because people are better equipped to use the high-schooler level LLMs to do their work more efficiently. We have some knowledge graph experiments where LLMs contin…

This ^^^^^!!

Progress in the applied domain (the sort of progress that makes a different in the economy) will come predominantly from integrating and orchestrating LLMs, with improvements to models adding a little bit of extra fuel on top.

If we never get any model better than what we have now (several GPT-4-quality models and some stronger models like o1/o3) we will still have at least a decade of improvements and growth across the entire economy and society.

We haven't even scratched the surface in the quest to understand how to best integrate and orchestrate LLMs effectively. These are very early days. There's still tons of work to do in memory, RAG, tool calling, agentic workflows, UI/UX, QA, security, ...

At this time, not more than 0.01% of the applications and services that can be built using currently available AI and that can meaningfully increase productivity and quality have been built or even planned.

We may or may not get to AGI/ASI soon with the current stack (I'm actually cautiously optimistic), but the obsessive jump from the latest research progress at the frontier labs to applied AI effectiveness is misguided.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#617

Post by qnleigh »

exhaze wrote: post #286
ynniv wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it "eerie"? LeCun has been talking about it for some time, and may also be OpenAI's rumored q-star, mentioned shortly after Noam Brown (diplomacybot) joining OpenAI. You can't hill climb tokens, but you can climb manifolds.

I wasn’t aware of others attempting manifolds for this before - just something I stumbled upon independently. To me the “eerie” part is the thought of an LLM no longer using human language to reason - it’s like something out of a sci fi movie where humans encounter an alien species that thinks in a way that humans cannot even comprehend due to biological limitations. I am hopeful that progress in mechanistic interpre…

> it’s like something out of a sci fi movie where humans encounter an alien species that thinks in a way that humans cannot even comprehend due to biological limitations.

I've increasingly felt this since GPT2 wrote that news piece about unicorns back in 2019. These models are still so mysterious, when you think about it. They can often solve decently complex math problems, but routinely fail at counting. Many have learned surprising skills like chess, but only when prompted in very specific ways. Their emergent abilities constantly surprise us and we have no idea how they really work internally.

So the idea that they reason using something other than human language feels unsurprising, but only because everything about it is surprising.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#618

Post by shafyy »

brookst wrote: post #483
stingraycharles wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the problem is that you always need to double-check this particular type of expert, as it can be confidently wrong about pretty much any topic. It's useful as a starting point, not as a definitive expert answer.

What human experts do you blindly trust without double checking?

LLM proponents really have succeeded in moving the overton window on this discussion. "Sure, you cannot trust LLMs, but you cannot trust humans, either".

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#619

Post by ssl-3 »

az226 wrote: post #567
Animats wrote: post #123

"Orion’s problems signaled to some at OpenAI that the more-is-more strategy, which had driven much of its earlier success, was running out of steam." So LLMs finally hit the wall. For a long time, more data, bigger models, and more compute to drive them worked. But that's apparently not enough any more. Now someone has to have a new idea. There's plenty of money available if someone has one. The current level of LLM…

The problem is data. GPT-3 was trained on 4:1 ratio of data to parameters. And for GPT-4 the ratio was 10:1. So to scale this out, GPT-5 should be 25:1. The parameter count jumped from 175B to 1.3T, which means GPT-5 should be 10T parameters and 250T training tokens. There is zero chance OpenAI has a training set of high quality data that is 250T tokens. If I had to guess, they trained a model that was maybe 3-4T in…

Links?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#620

Post by Elextric »

badgersnake wrote: post #595
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

They’re garbage, they will always be garbage. Changing a 4 to a 5 will not make it not garbage. The whole sector is a hype bubble artificially inflating stock prices.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFc1jxLHhyM
Post reply on HN