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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#601

Post by [deleted] »

xivzgrev wrote: post #536
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

What if the rise in index funds is a bubble on its own? It's massive and increasing amounts of money that is not price sensitive and keeps growing. There's an underlying bubble message: "the stock market always bounces back, so keep plowing your money into it even when it's down". Apparently passive funds are 60% of mutual funds / ETFs now https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/has-passiv... Even more insi…

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#602

Post by solatic »

xivzgrev wrote: post #536
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

What if the rise in index funds is a bubble on its own? It's massive and increasing amounts of money that is not price sensitive and keeps growing. There's an underlying bubble message: "the stock market always bounces back, so keep plowing your money into it even when it's down". Apparently passive funds are 60% of mutual funds / ETFs now https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/has-passiv... Even more insi…

US stock market index funds will crash when the US stock market crashes. That will require very large sums of capital to decide to move away from US capital markets. To give an idea of how much money would need to move - VTSAX alone is about $2.1 trillion, with hundreds of billions of dollars of shares of each Mag7 stock.

You basically need the world to decide that EMEA/JAP markets are collectively stronger than the US stock market, and to collectively move their capital outside the US to be deployed in EMEA/JAP. Moves away from Mag7 to US value stocks will be captured by the US stock market index funds; moves into commodities will be seen as opportunities to buy the dip before a market rebound. You can view attempts by US private equity to purchase real estate as attempts to hedge against overvaluation in US markets, but if the US has another Great Depression, those real estate purchases won't be able to fetch high rents or prices anyway.

In short, just follow the normal advice, which is not to put all your money into US domestic stocks, but to also purchase foreign stock market index funds, which help to hedge against the risk of the entire US stock market crashing. In the long run, US index funds are still a good investment - US courts still are quite powerful to settle contract disputes, the US does not have capital flight controls, and American business culture is still one of the hardest working, greediest forces on the planet - a Great Depression v2 would not change that.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#603

Post by werdnapk »

ls612 wrote: post #569
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

Gold fell over 10 percent yesterday and silver almost 20 percent because Trump announced that the economist friendly choice would be nominated for the Fed. A lot of the precious metals market activity was based on fears about US monetary policy not fears of an imminent depression.

Gold and silver were up the most they'd ever been the previous 1-2 days... followed by them going back down. So don't mention the fall without the literal massive rise that happened hours before.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#604

Post by mrbluecoat »

mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

The only thing that crashed yesterday was silver and gold

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#605

Post by sbohacek »

xivzgrev wrote: post #546
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

There's also the fact that US equities are now consistently best asset class. Used to be all over the map. But with rise of passive investing and global markets, capital flows to the winner. Success begets success. If something changes and suddenly foreign equities start consistently beating out US then capital would flow accordingly. But the US still has a massive advantage from passive flows propping it up in perpe…

International equities out performed US in 2025, e.g., see the chart near the bottom of the article in https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/04/investing/global-stock-market...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#606

Post by ccc3 »

mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

I don't think that's exactly true of dot com and '08. In both cases the developing bubbles were identified and widely discussed in the years prior to the burst. The surprise in '08 was not that there was a bubble in real estate, but rather that a massive fraction of the financial system was built on leveraging that sector. To paraphrase Buffett, you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#607

Post by coryrc »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #321
bayarearefugee wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the Democratic party has fumbled the ball (over and over) and deserves a lot of blame for where we are now, but all of the trans talk in 2024 was driven entirely by the right. The Democratic party wasn't talking about trans people in 2024 (if anything the Democratic campaign was conspicuously avoiding the conversation entirely). The trans "debate" that people remember from that time period was driven ent…

2024 Democratic platform [1] word counts: men: 4 woman/women: 86 gay: 3 transgender: 8 They slit their own throats by ignoring half of the voting population. [1] https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/FINAL-MASTE...

Of the three references to men I found, one was counting Trump's judicial appointments and the others were "our brave men and women of the armed forces". No acknowledgement of the college enrollment gap nor illegal competition in several predominately-male fields having driven wages way down.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#608

Post by jb1991 »

ls612 wrote: post #569
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

Gold fell over 10 percent yesterday and silver almost 20 percent because Trump announced that the economist friendly choice would be nominated for the Fed. A lot of the precious metals market activity was based on fears about US monetary policy not fears of an imminent depression.

This is a good example of a comment taken completely out of context to indicate something that’s not true at all. Take a look at a chart of gold. Crash of 10% makes it sound like gold depreciated a lot.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#609

Post by variadix »

xivzgrev wrote: post #536
mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

What if the rise in index funds is a bubble on its own? It's massive and increasing amounts of money that is not price sensitive and keeps growing. There's an underlying bubble message: "the stock market always bounces back, so keep plowing your money into it even when it's down". Apparently passive funds are 60% of mutual funds / ETFs now https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/has-passiv... Even more insi…

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of why index funds are effective. Being over invested into U.S. equities is a risk if you hold outsized U.S. index funds (esp. if you have a large allocation in the S&P500, you do not own the market portfolio), but there are other risks being invested into foreign equities as a U.S. investor.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#610

Post by the_gipsy »

dwoldrich wrote: post #428
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

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