Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#601

Post by nly » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 9:47 AM UTC

mcv wrote: post #587

someNameIG wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US economy is the largest in the world, disposable income, both average and median, are highest and second highest respectively. Median income is 30-40% higher than comparable developed economies, and significant higher than China. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per... Even industrial output the US is second highest, and it's closer to first place than second. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/…

> And supporting a whole family on a single income well was a very narrow window of time, and it required the US to have no real economic competitors. But then how were other countries able to have this while having economic competitors?

A lot of this is just social change from the womens liberation movement. Women went to work and the market adapted. Now, in the main, you need 2 incomes to run a home.

It's worse in a lot of countries where tax policy disadvantages the pre-1960 norm like the UK.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#602

Post by OJFord » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 9:48 AM UTC

lazyasciiart wrote: post #362

OJFord wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you think it's a lesser crisis, you could just say that. I do, but the principal reason I didn't say that is that I had no idea it's what the commenter I replied to was referring to. 'Brexit' feels mostly completely irrelevant / not a topic of concern or debate since at least the beginning of the pandemic five years ago. The vote was almost a decade ago. 'If bdelmas thinks it's like Brexit, they could just say t…

The vote didn’t implement anything. Britain didn’t actually leave the EU until 2020. Brexit is as of much concern in Britain, still, as Trump is - because it underlies their entire shaken economy. You think some tariffs are bad? Ok now what if Trump simultaneously tore up every trade agreement ? And cancelled the visas of every European citizen in the country, who happened to make up 10% of the medical sector?

Alright take 2020 then: year started $1.32/£, ended at 1.37. The world was shaken by SARS-nCoV-2019, but I do not remember us feeling particularly extra shaken by Brexit crisis.

That is not really relevant anyway, the up-thread suggestion was that there was some current ongoing crisis more significant than anything happening in the US. That user didn't even mention Brexit, but if that is what they meant, no, I assure you it's predominantly Trump and tax year end stuff in our news.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#603

Post by Symbiote » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 9:53 AM UTC

OJFord wrote: post #298

anigbrowl wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brexit was pretty bad for the UK proportional to the size of their population/economy, and is still causing problems even though the initial dislocation is over. If you think it's a lesser crisis, you could just say that. I haven't done the numbers to make an exact comparison, but they both have the qualities of being being abrupt, severe, and self-inflicted.

> If you think it's a lesser crisis, you could just say that. I do, but the principal reason I didn't say that is that I had no idea it's what the commenter I replied to was referring to. 'Brexit' feels mostly completely irrelevant / not a topic of concern or debate since at least the beginning of the pandemic five years ago. The vote was almost a decade ago. 'If bdelmas thinks it's like Brexit, they could just say t…

Britain took 4 years to negotiate and prepare for the new trading arrangement with the EU. It wasn't all smooth, but they did things like massively expand customs facilities at sea and airports to allow for the new inspections, train up inspectors for animal and plant imports. It gave time for people to move, companies to move their HQ, set up new warehouses, etc. Both sides were clear that the arrangement wouldn't be changed back with a change of government — the EU had no patience for that, opposition parties in the UK said they wouldn't aim for it either.

The USA hasn't done any of that, so the situation at this stage isn't the same.

Weeks after Brexit happened, when Covid started, EU governments quickly moved their focus to the pandemic. Since then, they've continued to tell Britain they aren't interested in reopening discussions so soon after new treaties were signed.

That's changed slightly with Russia/Ukraine/Trump, as the UK has positioned itself carefully between the USA and the rest of NATO.

All that time though, it remains a topic of debate in Britain since they haven't seen any of the promised benefits of Brexit. Some things have got worse, but I'd say it's generally a problem of stagnation, compared to improvements in comparable neighbouring countries.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#604

Post by gU9x3u8XmQNG » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:01 AM UTC

Terr_ wrote: post #197

ijustlovemath wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who's played cards or an MMO know those are insanely good odds -- virtually guaranteed!

X-Com: Enemy Known , where you're forced to play with a certain squad leader who is always either out of Time Units, panicking, or mind-controlled, and a 99% hit chance is not really 99%.

This made me laugh.. then cry..

Thanks for the memories!

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#605

Post by chrome111 » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:12 AM UTC

cycomanic wrote: post #324

toddmorey wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

Americans are taught at a very young age about Manifest Destiny, the notion when starting in the East that America has a right all the way to the West. While events like Trail of Tears are mentioned, they're downplayed during early school years and not brought up again later when kids may be able to form an opinion. Essentially, winning is ingrained into the American mindset and is the driving force behind almost everything - this helps when making companies big and even bigger, but also mutual growth hard to fathom. Current US policy does feel very American. Seems like a make-or-break moment for the American model itself, and if it breaks there'll need to be a change starting from the early age education/propaganda.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#606

Post by sethammons » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:15 AM UTC

tpetry wrote: post #290

jarym wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My best understanding of the administration's psyche is that they're determined to have more manufacturing happen in the US - regardless of the economic impact. It still doesn't make sense though - there's a reason sneaker makers like to have kids in places like Vietnam make shoes for a few cents per hour. It's because no one in the US would work gruelling hours for such little pay! POTUS wants to 'level the field' b…

The problem is more that the companies want to keep their insane profit margin. They could produce in the US, pay workers more and sell for the same price. But thats less revenue for the company. Less shareholder value. Less bonus for CEOs. The problem is the hyper capitalism which we have for the past 50 years that every company needs more and more profits.

You plan to retire. Do you invest in something growing at n% or n+1%? If your company can't get a similar return, your company doesn't get investment.

It isn't "hyper" capitalism, it is just capitalism and competition for investment.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#607

Post by beloch » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:17 AM UTC

bawolff wrote: post #61

ViktorRay wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long run it could lead to more fair trade deals. Today’s episode of Newshour at the BBC World Service had a conversation between a BBC journalist and a German CDU politician where they talked about how the tariffs on cars from Germany entering America has historically been lower than the tariffs on cars from America entering Germany. The CDU politician was telling the BBC that he hoped maybe a resolution for a…

I think that is unlikely. Trade deals require precitability and trust. Nobody wants to sign a trade deal if it might not be worth the paper its written on next week. I would expect that it would make future trade agreements more "unfair" to usa because other countries will price in a risk premium to cover america's unpredictability.

e.g. The U.S. has now violated CUSMA/USMCA/NAFTA 2.0 to an egregious degree, and this treaty is due to be renegotiated next year. As an unreliable partner, the U.S. is going to have to give up some serious concessions to Mexico and Canada to make the treaty happen. It's no different than applying for a loan with a low credit score. If you're a higher risk, the rates will be unfavourable.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#608

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:18 AM UTC

csense wrote: post #531

cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#609

Post by matwood » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:24 AM UTC

csense wrote: post #531

cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

I agree that the Rust Belt has had it rough, but it is not the entire US economy. I won't argue that people saw the future in the 70s, but those jobs were/are going away to automation regardless (and they are certainly not coming back). It's better to not be reliant on them now. In hindsight globalization was right move. And even if it wasn't, trying to blame the current US issues on globalization is 30 years too late.

Statistically the US manufactures more than it ever has on a $ amount, and is the #2 manufacturer in the world. Until recently, the US economy was the envy of the world. The trade situation the US setup did and does work, and along with other policies, led to enormous prosperity that was just unevenly distributed.

Where the US failed, and mostly around GOP and now Trump policies, is not spreading the growing prosperity to more of its citizens. Given this enormous prosperity where is universal healthcare, free/low cost college, UBI, etc...?

Unfortunately, the people who really need these policies have mostly voted against them for decades. Their anger is legitimate, but it's misplaced. Being angry at "globalization" or "illegals" or pick a group is a misdirection fed by years of AM radio and Fox News. Now we are seeing the cycle continue, but this time the US economy may really be destroyed.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#610

Post by matwood » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 10:35 AM UTC

photonthug wrote: post #546

csense wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

For the people who want ^this guy to shut up but haven't engaged.. which part of the above is wrong? I can see hyperbole of "bandit infested ruin" pushing some buttons but otoh it's seems likely that crime is connected to general economic health.

> which part of the above is wrong?

Rust Belt isn't the entire US economy. Blaming where the US is today on globalization is probably 30 years too late.

The US economy has created enormous wealth. Domestic policies on how to spread around the prosperity to all citizens is where the US failed. Think more of what Sanders and AOC talk about, not bringing back factories that will be 99% automated anyway. For one example, how can the most prosperous country in the world have a majority of its bankruptcies tied to medical debt? And somehow people want to blame China or globalization or some other boogie man?