I have a better solution than what the author suggests. Accept that the American empire is on its last stages of a full on collapse. Every other empire before it eventually did anyway.
Is this really true or just false panic?
The Demoralization is just Beginning
601–610 of 812 posts
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#602I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…
>economists, or people who actually study these things.
From my experiences over the decades, the Venn diagram that includes both and have worthwhile understanding is a small minority of either group, and even smaller when you consider the total of those outside the set as the mainstream.
When this showed up on HN, there were no comments for quite a while.
I had casually heard of Hotz as a recognized hacker, interestingly one who was respected for figuring things out that other people could not. But with no real familiarity, I couldn't recall what he had hacked or where he had worked. Maybe I had retained the impression that he started out quite young.
And then he comes out with this.
Last time I heard of him, I knew he was smart, I just didn't remember why any more.
This time it's different.
Something must have escalated.
All I could think of now was "How did he get to be so smart?"
That would have been my entire comment, which I didn't post because I thought it was not very substantial, and I was wondering if there would be any comments anyway. No interest was being shown at all.
Study takes many forms and some people can figure things out better than others.
No one person can solve all the problems, or even recognize them, and when you start looking from fundamental principles you can end up so far off the mainstream that there is overwhelming misunderstanding that can not be overcome. Any mainstream can look so sensible across-the-board because the experts are standing on the shoulders of those who came before, and some of these are lifetimes of intense study. It can add up to more than one person can usually do in a single lifetime themself.
But if the foundation is wrong to begin with, or turns out that way later, it can be like a pro-cheerleader pyramid where the top rallying cry comes from someone who can still not see out of the pit of their own making, not actually elevated above the crowd like it appears. What could be incorrect about all the shoulders they are balancing on and the adoring crowd of high-dollar ticketholders to boot?
One thing's for sure and I don't think it's the title by accident.
"The Demoralization is just Beginning"
I've seen this movie before.
He doesn't even try to discuss this main point at all. People are nowhere near ready for that, look at the comments, many from quite educated positions pooh-poohing him from different directions.
All anyone can do in a short blogpost like this is throw out a little evidence and people can decide for themselves how demoralizing it already is, or how it might turn out.
Which is what people are doing, as righteously as they can, bless their hearts.
So my advice to Hotz at this point is keep doing what you are doing, and illegitimi non carborundum.
No different than the comment that popped into mind at first, now just a little more substantial than a quick drive-by.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#603Earlier quoted context omitted.
> We need to put as much effort into helping every other country develop and thrive - and by doing that we'll create many more customers for the products/services produced in our own countries, and everyone can end up richer. this was the logic in letting eg China into the WTO and allowing them to become such a big trading partner. turns out, this doesn't necessarily result in liberalization (see Germany's experience…
I do not disagree with your point, except, given the current state of US, it is hard to describe it as not repressive. I understand it's a spectrum. I checked on Wikipedia - abortion is legal in China. That's one right that many US women don't have. Which does not mean that China is a free country, but just to gain some perspective. The notion of some place being a dictatorship was many times weaponized to launch inv…
This is a false equivalence. Whatever you or I personally feel about abortion, its legality in the United States is set through approximately democratic processes. Not perfect by any means, but it very roughly reflects the will of the people - sharply divided, with many geographic concentrations.
The will of the people in China is unknown. There is only the will of the CCP, and increasingly, one person.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#604It's honestly for the best. US has been doing two-faced politics for years. Immigration is apparently a solution but the politicians have been waging a war on immigrants for as long as I can remember.
Even with the democrats it was the same thing. People who jump the border were the only sucesfull immigrants. Those trying the legal pathways are waiting for decades to get into the country. Now the message is again clear, be ultra rich and invest 5M to gain entry.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#605Earlier quoted context omitted.
People like to forget China was aggressively combating financialization [1] long before Jack Ma was forced to step down. Ant financials ambitions were an absolute disaster in the making [2]. I still remember my wife casually mentioning, back in 2019 or something (well before Evergrande), that China was restricting property speculation. Prohibiting folks from taking out loans on third properties etc. As an Australian…
Most chinese are storing wealth in real estate its the prime investment vehicle. People in china have been speculating on properties for decades. The chinese government realized a bubble was forming because house builders started using crazy leverage. The fact this crazy bubble formed has shown the regulators were in fact asleep.
Three red lines was definitely reactionary and perhaps late, but better late than never. I'd consider any form of intervention/deleveraging prior to a full blown meltdown evidence of being "not asleep". It's very hard to pass laws that negatively impact peoples life savings.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#606Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the US of 50 years ago, democracy was protected by codes of conduct, honor, and most importantly, strong content moderation in the form of monopolistic legacy media. All of this went out the door with the rise of social networks and the demise of legacy media. I don't see how democracy has the tools to survive populists with direct connection to the voting public. Even if elections happen in 2028, there's a good c…
this is EXACTLY it. the rise of social media and demise of legacy media weaponized politicians to create flamewars over issues which are great for winning elections but have no real meaning for our day-to-day lives. wokeness, transgender athletes, how many genders we have on the web forms to choose from, how many "immigrants" are we going to deport... are entirely meaningless for 99.98% of the population. instead of…
Personally I don't see a use or benefit of large gender dropdowns. Either keep any existing m/f or simply remove it if you don't need to adress them as her or him. Imo making lists increases chances for stigmatization.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#607Earlier quoted context omitted.
This has been done before, and America comes out consistently on top. Even the median purchasing power parity (PPP) in the US is frequently ranked highest in the world. The majority of American households in the poorest US states are doing better than the majority of Europeans. This gets amplified if you're a highly sought after professional. Top senior engineers are getting paid $500k-$1M in the US. These are figure…
Have you lived in Denmark, Japan, China, Netherlands and some other countries in the past 10-15 years? I really don’t think you weigh in people’s personal preferences and general quality of life into your equations. There is a very big reason why there’s no more large swaths of immigrants from European and some Asian countries flocking into the US. Yes there is some, but the times when it was objectively much better…
It's not just money. There's another aspect which the US has that edges out the competition. The fact that everyone is treated as an American in the place without racism/xenophobia. This is a huge benefit over impenetrable countries like Denmark/Netherlands.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#608Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this shows the problem of non fiscal pegs - the value of rare earths or duterium is going to be impacted by technical change. For example let's say that a new processing technique means that a rare earth can be extracted at 20% of the current cost, or a new deposit is discovered. The whole economy is now flexed around this change... which has nothing to do with the economy. I don't think that there is a fixed…
Helium? Finite supply that is only going down until we get off planet. It seems like the actual value of gold is that it is useless, and thus not used up, and all the easy gold is extracted. We could just use numbers instead.
In fact there is no figurative gold standard for value or money. A pokemon card or let's say a banana duck-taped to a canvas can have a lot of value. All there is, is reputation and trust.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
#609Earlier quoted context omitted.
This wasn't someone posting just a meme online or anything. The guy was posting racist shit during civil unrest [1]. Literally throwing oil on a fire. Yeah, you are going to get prosecuted for that. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gdww5lx2vo
"In those wretched Countries where a Man cannot call his Tongue his own, he can scarce call any Thing else his own. Whoever would overthrow the Liberty of a Nation, must begin by subduing the Freeness of Speech; a Thing terrible to Publick Traytors." - Benjamin Franklin This is why we fought a war to be separate from your "wretched" country. You're justifying jail time for racist speech!
> You're justifying jail time for racist speech!
For inciting further civil unrest during civil unrest.
Kinda weird to just cherry pick some things from my post.
Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning
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