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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

111–120 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#111

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

The US is already the brain drain destination #1. Nowhere else can highly skilled people generate comparable levels of income.

Was. Was the brain drain destination #1. It's been Europe, India and SE Asia for a while now.

Not everyone with a brain just wants more money. Some want to do interesting research that doesn't have a short term commercialisation strategy.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#112
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only a debate if you reject the very principals of science. I realize we're getting there for a lot of people, but merely disbelieving in science is not a refutal of it. This ignores so called Austrian economists however, who are just flat out lying to either themselves or everyone else depending on the person.

I think the problem might be that it's difficult to perform experiments in economics due to the size of the thing being measured and the fact that the people making up the economy generally aren't going to be alright with you performing experiments on them.

Many economic concepts are part of our daily life. Supply and demand, comparative advantage, for example.

Multiple experiments are conducted using historic data, for example the 2024 Nobel.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#113
post #12

Steve Jobs told Obama something similar once. The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities. Basically give those workers a visa along with their diploma. Obama thought the idea was intriguing and mentioned it multiple times to his advisors. It never went anywhere though. Brain draining the rest of the world is one of the main reasons for America’s succes…

> The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities Some EU countries offer scholarships to attract good foreign undergrads and grad students to their universities. The whole point is that they stay afterwards, and they try really hard to keep them. It's been proven to be quite economically profitable, see e.g. [1]. I've never understood what's the point of a…

> I've never understood what's the point of attracting good students if you don't want to keep them later on, unless you have overcapacity and sell education services.

Seems like you understand the point after all :)

US tertiary education is the perfect export good: Like other intellectual property, it's almost infinitely fungible, and parents from all over the world will part with staggering amounts of money for it.

The quality is definitely high, but the markup compared to other countries' universities is something else.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#114
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why the economy benefits long-term from people spending/investing only to get the money off their hands. Especially when it gets parked in things like gold and real estate just cause those supplies are sorta fixed.

Asset bubbles are indeed a sign of monetary and fiscal dysfunction, but so are hoarding and excessive wealth accumulation.

We have the combo right now, hoarding in assets. Inflation doesn't make rich people/corps spend more, just invest it differently.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#115
Beware of anyone who hordes trust, because they may be planning to cash in on that trust to screw you over when you need them most.

The United States is shifting toward a zero-trust model. All deals and agreements must be based on tangible incentives and benefits. It will be an interesting era.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#116
post #107
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if there's something flowing back that amounts to more than crumbs falling off the edge of the table, i.e. ownership of what these talented people help build, not just salaries/remittances. Silicon Valley is actually pretty good at that, compared to e.g. academia in the US.

Technological and scientific progress flows back spreading around the world like the tide rising all boats.

In a world without intellectual property rights and no entrepreneurial moats I'd share your optimism.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#117
post #57
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities Some EU countries offer scholarships to attract good foreign undergrads and grad students to their universities. The whole point is that they stay afterwards, and they try really hard to keep them. It's been proven to be quite economically profitable, see e.g. [1]. I've never understood what's the point of a…

> I've never understood what's the point of attracting good students if you don't want to keep them later on US schools attract international students because most will pay full tuition, subsidizing costs for local students.

i.e. they're mostly not looking for good ones, just paying ones.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#118
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is already the brain drain destination #1. Nowhere else can highly skilled people generate comparable levels of income.

Adjust for living expenses and the situation already looks very different. Then adjust for quality of life...

This has been done before, and America comes out consistently on top. Even the median purchasing power parity (PPP) in the US is frequently ranked highest in the world. The majority of American households in the poorest US states are doing better than the majority of Europeans.

This gets amplified if you're a highly sought after professional. Top senior engineers are getting paid $500k-$1M in the US. These are figures you'll never find in Europe or Asia, not even close. Put on top the rising costs of living, and 45% top tax brackets (France, UK, Germany, Spain), the US is incomparable.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#120

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

That's what kills me about these sorts of takes: the action plan is on the money, but their ideology shows they haven't actually learned anything of value from the failures of the current systems. They're essentially just looking at how others do a thing, rather than also looking at how we do a thing, and why we do that thing in that way, and what the knock-on effects of that process are.

He gives away the game at the end when he decries socialism (because of course he does, it's practically a Free Space on the "Highly Intelligent Engineer has Opinions on Things" BINGO card) and fingerpoints at Europe, despite China having Communism on some scale yet is also somehow what we should be emulating for growth? It reveals the naivety of his position, assuming he's making the argument in good faith.

But getting back to his action plans (which are, generally, not bad), I totally agree that a good step forward is reforming immigration to promote movement of people provided they're willing to contribute to society. He couches his standards in nebulous vagaries like "production" and "productivity", but the core concept is sound, even if his rationalizations leave a lot to be desired. We should be courting smarter and harder workers with pathways to Citizenship, not highly exploitable visas like H1Bs or the various farmworker visas, and we should be holding companies' feet to the fire in ensuring imported talent stays here, on American wages, in American living standards. I've been screaming the same to my EU friends of late, stating that now is the best time since Operation Paperclip for a foreign power to import brilliant talent from a failing state.

On the topic of the EU, something I'd like to challenge is this popular (with laissez-faire Capitalists and Libertarians) narrative that the EU is somehow failing because it hasn't exploded with growth like the USA or China. From what I've seen, Europe has been remarkably stable on the whole (with pockets of success and failure, a la the United States) precisely because it built up modern infrastructure when it could, maintained a diversified economy, and didn't give in to scams or grifts - like the ones he cites in the American economy as artificially inflating the economic numbers to create the appearance of growth where none has really occurred. If we had real growth, like China, we'd have the same amenities - high speed rail, modern freeways, high levels of infrastructure replacement and improvements, and a burgeoning middle class. China built these things as part of its rapid industrialization over the past century, whereas we squandered our post-war advantage on corporate subsidies and hawkish conflicts abroad for decades. If anything, I'd argue that the EU may very well be a model of a sustainable economy of sorts, provided there's not some crisis boiling beneath the surface that could cause a collapse; the people there generally have everything they need, and healthy regulations minimize the risk of exploitative or anti-consumer practices.

But I digress. The TL;DR is that he has valid points, but man does he undermine his argument with the same tired tripe at the end exposing his ignorance on the subject.

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