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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#601

Post by deepsun »

jonov wrote: post #531
hobo_mark wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a significant Russian minority in Estonia (as in other Baltics) who after de-russification remain "second class" citizens (without the right to vote for example).

Estonian here. That is Russian propaganda, Estonian citizens all have the right to vote. There is a minority of Russians here who do not want to learn the language and become citizens, hence they can't vote. They have the attitude that we (Estonians) are occupying their land... it's crazy. Younger generation of Russians who are born here are mostly not like that though *edit Even non-citizen Russians have the right t…

Same was in Ukraine. Hope you are not invaded in like 10 years.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#602

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

wukerplank wrote: post #428
kkjjkgjjgg wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't need to replace something that doesn't even exist?

Nord Stream 2 was finished last year, it just isn't used yet.

Sure, but the income stream (or gas output stream) doesn't exist yet.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#603

Post by realcertify »

abandonliberty wrote: post #594
realcertify wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't look much different from the US attacking Iraq or Yugoslavia. All these attacks have serious reasons behind them (and those reasons are not protecting poor children as mass media would tell you).

Iraq was quite questionable. The motive, oil/currency, was understandable though reprehensible. The terrorists weren't from Iraq, but Afghanistan/SA; GWB's decision to attack, and destabilize both a country and international order (as we're now experiencing) is his legacy. The difference here is that Ukraine did their best to appease Russia, including promising to never join the EU/Nato for promises of security. It s…

Ukraine did not appease Russia, that's the problem. If you look up the news 2 weeks ago you'll see that Putin sent a note to NATO demanding guarantees that Ukraine will never join that organization. West told Putin to mind his own business. This war wouldn't happen if the response was different.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#604

Post by account42 »

tut-urut-utut wrote: post #532
MattGaiser wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.

What would stop Russia to retaliate in that case? Every western company property in Russia would become a fair game, including e.g Bidens son and his property in Ukraine. It's not the game anyone would like to play.

The west not having the stomach for any real sanctions that also hurt them in return is exactly why Putin was confident enough to start the invasion. The only way non-violent way to stop it (besides an internal uprising) is to make exactly to make it clear that Putin miscalculated.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#605

Post by Grustaf »

raducu wrote: post #566
Grustaf wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have discussed putting nuclear missiles in Sweden, who isn’t even a member. Plus the US has already been arming Ukraine, hasn’t it?

And? Russia put them in Cuba, and later got them out. Russia could have asked for this guarantee if it really cared about, it wasn't even a topic of discussion. Ukraine had nukes and gave them up. Nukes in Ukraine would be such a ridiculous topic that Putin didn't even dare to bring up.

Not sure what you mean. I'm just saying that obviously if Ukraine joined Nato, they would get (even more) missiles. The US has been arming Ukraine for a long time already, to the tune of hundreds of millions every year.

Trump's first impeachment was related exactly to this.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#606

Post by Grustaf »

raducu wrote: post #564
Grustaf wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hate Ukraine for its freedoms?

No, they hate all the states that were under their influence and that later joined NATO and EU for leaving them in the dust. Ukraine prospering would be too much for Putin, it would expose his crooked path that he steered Russia. Russia would be way ahead of Poland had Putin not taken power and made Russia an mafia-oil state.

It was a Bush related joke. But regarding what you wrote, Ukraine prospering doesn't seem very likely, it's much more corrupt than even Russia. Their GDP per capita is a third of Russia's, despite also having a wealth of raw materials.

So that's not the issue. The Baltic states have prospered, and joined Nato for that matter.

The problem is that Ukraine is a huge country with a pretty large population, plus it has very deep historical ties with Russia, so it's probably a bit of that too, losing ones brother to the enemy would hurt.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#607

Post by gambiting »

Jetrel wrote: post #596
elric wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed ~200k people. Any target worth nuking, (say Nato HQ) will result in millions of casualties. Urbanization & increased population density have many benefits, but they make for mind-bogglingly disastrous targets of nukes. If there's a choice between nukes raining down and between Putin ruling the world, I'll happily choose the latter. No matter the cost, there cannot be a nucl…

Unfortunately for people with your worldview, this isn't the way the world works. You're thinking under a framework that one set of actions will certainly prevent it, and the other is more likely to cause it. At this point, neither intervention nor non-intervention is likely to prevent this. It's entirely likely that if Putin loses this assault, or faces an intractable insurgency, he could launch nukes out of a despe…

>>At this point, neither intervention nor non-intervention is likely to prevent this. It's entirely likely that if Putin loses this assault, or faces an intractable insurgency, he could launch nukes out of a desperate attempt to save face. He's old — at this point, only the reputation he leaves behind is what matters to him, and it's clear that he wishes to be remembered as a fearful and powerful figure. What better way to do that than nuking someone?

I do agree that if he's pushed against the wall he can nuke one Ukrainian city saying it was the hideout of the rebels or whatever, effectively sending a message that he's not afraid to use nuclear weapons, without directly attacking a NATO state. I can only assume that at that point whatever is left of Ukrainian government would voluntarily step down to prevent further destruction.

You're right that he's a madman, and any sort of logical strategy just doesn't apply here.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#608

Post by llampx »

cute_boi wrote: post #597
llampx wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current war for future peace.

I don't think so. Middle east war, Afghan war never brought any peace. Instead it backfired. So, I really don't like such platitudes.

I agree in a way, but I also think that in avoiding conflict, it is possible to see yourself pushed back into a corner to where a bigger conflict becomes necessary.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#609

Post by vetinari »

sg47 wrote: post #593
thiagoharry wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise, it was Cuba's choice to place soviet nukes where they want. However, that led to a crisis here.

Yes, I remember how US tried to bomb Cuba and annex it as a territory.

You missed the entire Cuban crisis and how the world was seconds away from WW3? We all would not comment here if Cubans would take 'can place nukes where they want' literally.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#610

Post by polotics »

ciphol wrote: post #415
polotics wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fear that with missile defense and impending climate disruption models, the calculus of MAD may have been updated somewhat: no-one wants a starving population with a MAGA-level of understanding and education about their predicament roaming around the enclaves... If you thought California's and Australia's fires were what climate impacts will look like, think again: a limited nuclear exchange will probably have abou…

A bad climate year will kill a handful of people, like California and Australia's fires did. (Humanity is getting richer and more capable faster than the climate is getting warmer.) A limited nuclear exchange will likely kill millions of people.

A bad climate year in 2040 will kill millions of people. Mark my words. Climate disruption is only getting started we are on an exponential response function between average temp and effects with plenty of hysteresis to come ie. no way back, won't regrow, won't feed...
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