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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#601

Post by radicalbyte »

pansa2 wrote: post #472
radicalbyte wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if the US is the same as other countries.. but in the UK your birthdate defines how much schooling you get. I'm a summer child so my first year of school consisted of a two week introduction and then the summer holiday. My best friend at school and all of the higher performing kids (except me) were born in the first half of the year so had an extra 6 months of schooling.

I thought everyone in the UK started school together, in September?

Not in the early 1980s at least. You're put in a school year based on birthday, the school year starting in September. You then started at school on your 5th birthday.

It may be different nowadays; it would make way more sense to have everyone start in September. I live in The Netherlands and here kids start as soon as they turn 4. They then spend two-three years in the young kids class depending on maturity.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#602

Post by kilroy123 »

stcredzero wrote: post #479
jdhn wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

I completely agree with you, but... How about don't vote in leaders that only care about helping out their rich buddies then?

The Scandinavian countries have moved to pay all payrolls to keep people paid during all this madness, instead of just bailing out large debt holders.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#603

Post by treis »

vkou wrote: post #546
treis wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every expense is someone else's income. Freezing debts/rents doesn't solve anything. It just shifts the burden. Ultimately we are losing the wealth that we otherwise would have generated. We are poorer and there's no way around that.

Yes, it shifts the burden from people who work for a living, to people who's living is worked for by other people. The former are far more important, and numerous than the latter. I eat butter, I don't eat dividends.

If you're a renter you live in a home that a landlord built or paid someone else to build. And if people stop paying rent then they stop paying people to build. Construction workers lose their jobs and our housing problems are made worse.

And don't have any illusions about the rich losing here. Most units are owned by small time landlords who will be wiped out by a rent freeze. Those units will be gobbled up on the cheap by rich people that can borrow money at cheap rates.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#604

Post by q92z8oeif »

ardy42 wrote: post #583
bo1024 wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. * Middle-class Americans consistently pump money into the stock market generically (not information trading), raising the value of all your stocks over time. * Now you have a gun to their head to support policies that pump up the value of your stocks even more. * Also, when shit hits the fan, they can't easily cash out, but you can. Both on a mega-scale…

> The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. You make a very interesting point! I wonder what a "reverse 401k" program would look like (e.g. box the wealthy into aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class while only marginally benefiting themselves).

> aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class

Any attempt to recognize classes exits will lead to class war. Everyone is upper class, or waiting to join upper class, anytime now.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#605

Post by coldpie »

misiti3780 wrote: post #513
RankingMember wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).

One piece of anecdotal evidence: I live in NYC but currently reside in rural upstate NY. We have very few cases up here and it's impossible to NOT socially distance because that the way of life up here. As of last week, Cuomo is applying the same rules in NYC to all of NY state, which is ridiculous. My family friend has a furniture factory up here that employs 220 people with a backlog of $2M+ pieces worth of furnitu…

I don't have an opinion one way or the other on your friend's situation. It definitely sucks, and you may well be right that it's unduly harmful to their situation. But don't underestimate this disease. Even upstate New York isn't immune, take a look at this interactive map[1]. Almost all counties in upstate New York are north of 50 confirmed cases per 100,000 people, and all of those are neighboring counties with hundreds of confirmed cases. Given our rate of testing is abysmal, it's very likely there are several times that many actual cases in each county. Drastic action is absolutely needed, even in your county.

This is an awkward and difficult situation. If we underreact, we will have hundreds of thousands or millions more deaths (not joblessness, actual dead people) than we could have if we reacted appropriately. I think that's worse than the alternative of a massive recession, but I definitely sympathize with people who are most affected, like your friend and his employees. It's tough; there's no clear right answer; mistakes will be made. We just need to do the best with the information we have, and trust the experts to do the same. I'm sorry :(

[1] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#606

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

ardy42 wrote: post #583
bo1024 wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. * Middle-class Americans consistently pump money into the stock market generically (not information trading), raising the value of all your stocks over time. * Now you have a gun to their head to support policies that pump up the value of your stocks even more. * Also, when shit hits the fan, they can't easily cash out, but you can. Both on a mega-scale…

> The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. You make a very interesting point! I wonder what a "reverse 401k" program would look like (e.g. box the wealthy into aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class while only marginally benefiting themselves).

Taxes?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#607

Post by eli_gottlieb »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #570
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because the top has looted the economy, leaving little or nothing for the rest of us. Its not a reflection on the bottom 50% at all.

> That's because the top has looted the economy Can you explain how this happens? How does one "loot" one of the largest economies in the world?

You pay people less than their cost of living, demand that the state make up the difference in food stamps and health-care subsidies, and then pocket the difference.

https://www.socialeurope.eu/time-for-postcapitalism

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#608

Post by scruple »

low_common wrote: post #190
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.

My brother, though his situation is not so dire, has given me similar anecdotes, many of those from his friends group. He lives in a small college town in rural southeastern Ohio. Many of his friends, though, who are being hit very hard right now are all over Ohio... Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Dayton.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#609

Post by nitrogen »

ardy42 wrote: post #583
bo1024 wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. * Middle-class Americans consistently pump money into the stock market generically (not information trading), raising the value of all your stocks over time. * Now you have a gun to their head to support policies that pump up the value of your stocks even more. * Also, when shit hits the fan, they can't easily cash out, but you can. Both on a mega-scale…

> The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. You make a very interesting point! I wonder what a "reverse 401k" program would look like (e.g. box the wealthy into aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class while only marginally benefiting themselves).

I wonder what a "reverse 401k" program would look like (e.g. box the wealthy into aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class while only marginally benefiting themselves).

Pensions? Those also don't seem to work all that well.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#610

Post by jasonv »

jdhn wrote: post #455
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

Social unrest?

How about some activism, social representation..? We don't really do that in the US these days.

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