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Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

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Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#601

Post by lawlessone »

unexaminedlife wrote: post #599
Animats wrote: post #472

Compare Google's system from five years ago.[1] (at 7:42) This new video is at n00b level compared to that. [1] https://embed.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_ca...

I have mixed feelings about this. I realize the number and types of sensors that exist in Waymo's cars provide far more data to the driverless car. But then when I really think about it, humans have been driving with only 2 sensors (eyes) for a long time with relatively good success. With the improvement of computer algorithms to help the cars make better decisions than humans, I'm not 100% sure if the long-term solu…

>humans have been driving with only 2 sensors (eyes) for a long time with relatively good success.

1.25 million die a year in road accidents. We should try to do better than human.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#602

Post by Shivetya »

ipunchghosts wrote: post #122

The amount of jitter in the estimates makes me nervous, especially when the model thinks something is present in one frame and not there in the next.

(TM3 owner) While in motion what is presented to the driver there is little to no jitter. Where you get it mostly is when stopped and the car seems to adjusting between cameras to determine where an object adjacent truly is. sometimes there is no jitter and other times its a bit odd.

in motion the car drives just fine with the caveat they have not enabled signal recognition. I use TACC and at times full AP on my daily commute which includes road speeds from 35 to 55. I particularly like it on rainy days. I treat it like having a high school kid being chauffeur... I am a back seat driver who just happens to be in the driver's seat.

as for visual representation like in the video or waymo's demo videos, like many other things in life when you see how the sausage is made it is a wonder how we all survive it. The key difference between Tesla and Waymo is Tesla is not geo fenced, same with Cadillac's supercruise which is not available except on interstate.

who has the best solution, I am not willing to place a bet on that yet

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#603

Post by thdrdt »

jiofih wrote: post #595
thdrdt wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After seeing reviews of the Tesla Autopilot vs Openpilot it became clear to me it is way to early to trust Tesla's Autopilot (and Openpilot). They both use visuals only and are easily confused when situations are a little different than 'normal'. I even think Openpilot performed a little better than Autopilot but because Openpilot only has a forward looking camera it fails often on tight corners. Google on the other…

Tesla’s system can still estimate where the car should be without markings, just like humans do with their vision.

Well it you look at some videos you can see that there are times Tesla thinks repair lines are road marks especially when the sun is reflected by the lines.

When the car has no real idea of its position in 3D space this gives problems.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#604

Post by mda »

nxpnsv wrote: post #596
mda wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was just answering to the claim "when just the lidar for a waymo car costs more than the entire tesla vehicle". Which is clearly wrong. The tesla you can afford still does not have self driving capabilities either btw.

I made this joke as I found disparity between the message its reply humorous. If you disagree, feel free to ignore my comment. That aside, it is quite cool how Waymo cut costs by 90%: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i... (perhaps there are newer developments of which I am not aware). The old numbers indeed exceed the price of most teslas...

I see, I missed the joke I think, reading again, it was quite obvious, sorry about that.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#605

Post by hokkos »

jiofih wrote: post #594
Animats wrote: post #472

Compare Google's system from five years ago.[1] (at 7:42) This new video is at n00b level compared to that. [1] https://embed.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_ca...

Your comment makes no sense. Besides the fact that this is showing Lidar scans with depth and 3D textures (does look cooler), the relevant part which is feature detection is a lot poorer. It doesn’t seem to detect lane markers or boundaries, sidewalks, traffic signs, or show path estimates like you can clearly see in the Tesla video. Plus the texturing implies the route is pre-mapped while Autopilot is doing all the…

In the Waymo video there are vector narrow lines added on top of the broken white line of the image view, there are also a vector boundary of the centered line and boundaries, and 3D box for cones. You are clearly not looking closely enough, or might not want to.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#606

Post by Gravityloss »

gzer0 wrote: post #467
platz wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was inviting you to tell me why

Some care is needed when choosing priors in a hierarchical model [such as Bayesian], particularly on scale variables at higher levels of the hierarchy. The usual priors such as the Jeffreys prior [1] often do not work, because the posterior distribution will not be normalizable and estimates made by minimizing the expected loss will be inadmissible. [1] In Bayesian probability, the Jeffreys prior is a non-informative…

But we have a lot of statistical information and can use reasonable priors about the world.

Ie objects don't spring into existence or disappear or fly around at 400 mph or change direction at 2000 gees.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#607

Post by hokkos »

keenmaster wrote: post #531
m463 wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It diminishes the comparison when just the lidar for a waymo car costs more than the entire tesla vehicle. So, not only can you afford a tesla vehicle, you can go out and buy one today.

LIDAR will get cheaper and smaller though. I think Tesla’s argument that cameras+ML+tons of data>LIDAR is more compelling.

The real question is cameras + ML + tons of data vs LIDAR + cameras + ML + tons of data

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#608

Post by adrr »

notyourwork wrote: post #593
toast0 wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The waymo cars have always been timid. That's why most of the collisions involve the waymo car getting rear ended. They don't move when other drivers expect them to. Of course, this is annoying, and being so timid that you get rear ended is unsafe, but the Tesla approach would be the delivery truck is detected as a stationary object and ignored, so the vehicle would accelerate to the set speed in 3 seconds and slam i…

> Of course, Tesla will tell you that their car isn't really self-driving with one side of their mouth, while telling you your car is equipped for self-driving out of the other side. This is my biggest worry with the way this is promoted. It’s false advertising and misleading to consumers. I wish more companies (in all industries) would be held accountable to accurately portray what they are selling.

Tesla promotes autopilot as safer than a human driver but blames the driver when there is an accident. How can autopilot be safer than a human if the only way to safely use is with a human monitoring it?

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#609

Post by RugnirViking »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #585
mike_d wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. I think we agree on that. It doesn't matter if you have a highly performant pipeline for detecting other cars if you have a random 200 ms VM pause as another car blows a stop sign in front of you.

...but if it starts braking hard in 250ms that's still a very superhuman reaction time.

As humans we know our reaction times - you naturally slow down as you get to a junction or navigate crowded or tricky traffic conditions to give yourself as much of a chance as possible to react.

This is the thinking behind many types of speed control street layouts. You should also know where to look to anticipate where danger is most likely to come from, and be ready with some kind of action. This is why we do hazard identification tests as part of the driving test - looking in the right directions at the right times is crucial for operating a vehicle safely.

250ms is a fairly average reaction time for something visual that you are ready for - but you should really be giving yourself as much time as possible - if somebody bombs past a traffic light at 70mph, even if it is green, most people would agree that it was an unsafe move. This goes doubly for an autonomous car, that is unable to play the positioning negotiation game that humans are masters of as a result of being social creatures.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#610

Post by [deleted] »

tim333 wrote: post #542
felipemnoa wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If done right it may even work against humans.

It's sort of been tried https://artofgears.com/2015/12/16/did-a-fiat-crash-into-a-pa... A problem I think is the visual appearance of a tunnel changes as you move in relationship to in in a way that a static image would not.

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