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Virtual Reality is going to change the world

notch.net

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Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#61

Post by foobarian »

interpol_p wrote: post #35

From Notch: > Don’t get me wrong, VR is not bad for social. In fact, I think social could become one of the biggest applications of VR. Being able to sit in a virtual living room and see your friend’s avatar? Business meetings? Virtual cinemas where you feel like you’re actually watching the movie with your friend who is seven time zones away? Do people really see this as the mainstream use of VR? Do people really se…

Let's not forget that other application area that has historically proven very helpful at driving early adoption of new media. From the Gutenberg press, through celluloid, CDs, GIFs, to the Internet. Hint: starts with 'p', ends with 'orn.'

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#62

Post by hackinthebochs »

interpol_p wrote: post #49
lnanek2 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Social seems like a more mainstream use, honestly. 73% of adults are on a social network. Only 49% of homes have a game console. Owning a game console is a choice. Owning something like a webcam and a way to browse Facebook is almost a default by now. While what happened is bad for the gaming focus, it is much more likely to end up with broad stream VR adoption just like how webcams are built into most phones and lap…

So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook? (Photos of real life events, the thoughts and feelings of others, commentary on recent news, memes.) Edit: just because social is a bigger area than gaming, does not mean VR is more likely to take off in that area. It entirely depends on how you actually use it and what experien…

>So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook

Why do you think it would look anything like what we currently consider social networking? Why are people so painfully short-sighted?

I have said many times that facebook won the social network wars long before google even released google+. Anything that comes along to kill facebook will look nothing like what we consider social networking today. It looks like facebook may be the one to invent its own killer.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#64

Post by ekianjo »

jeroen wrote: post #58
kamkazemoose wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be surprised if the Sony news had anything to do with this. These sorts of acquisitions don't happen overnight, they've likely been talking for months, doing due diligence and other research into the deal.

Techcrunch says the deal was made in 5 days. Discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469885

The deal was made in 5 days, it does not mean they were not in touch before.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#65

Post by bps4484 »

ekianjo wrote: post #64
jeroen wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Techcrunch says the deal was made in 5 days. Discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469885

The deal was made in 5 days, it does not mean they were not in touch before.

They were almost certainly in touch before, but the deal being done in 5 days means that the sony announcement could have been the event that pressed the oculus team at look at an acquisition more seriously.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#66

Post by paulhauggis »

smacktoward wrote: post #27
skore wrote: post #4

For a guy who is otherwise rather easy going, Notch can be incredibly pragmatic and strident. Here, he has cut to heart of the issue. > And I did not chip in ten grand to seed a first investment round to build value for a Facebook acquisition. > Don’t get me wrong, VR is not bad for social. He is right - "social", especially in the way Facebook is doing it at the moment, is terrible for VR. Terrible for any technolog…

> And I did not chip in ten grand to seed a first investment round to build value for a Facebook acquisition He really puts his finger on one of the reasons why this deal feels so weird here, I think. Nobody who contributed to the Oculus Kickstarter did so because they were hoping Oculus would get flipped to a mega-corp. They didn't do so because they wanted the Oculus team to have a big, splashy VC-style exit. They…

Is this the equivalent of a fan hating an indy band for "selling out"?

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#67

Post by RandallBrown »

skore wrote: post #4

For a guy who is otherwise rather easy going, Notch can be incredibly pragmatic and strident. Here, he has cut to heart of the issue. > And I did not chip in ten grand to seed a first investment round to build value for a Facebook acquisition. > Don’t get me wrong, VR is not bad for social. He is right - "social", especially in the way Facebook is doing it at the moment, is terrible for VR. Terrible for any technolog…

Is he pragmatic enough that he'll eat his words and release Minecraft on the Oculus Rift if it gets popular and Facebook doesn't actually ruin it?

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#68

Post by interpol_p »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #62
interpol_p wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook? (Photos of real life events, the thoughts and feelings of others, commentary on recent news, memes.) Edit: just because social is a bigger area than gaming, does not mean VR is more likely to take off in that area. It entirely depends on how you actually use it and what experien…

>So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook Why do you think it would look anything like what we currently consider social networking? Why are people so painfully short-sighted? I have said many times that facebook won the social network wars long before google even released google+. Anything that comes along to kill face…

> Why do you think it would look anything like what we currently consider social networking? Why are people so painfully short-sighted?

Even if it's the same as putting on a pair of sunglasses, it's still too much for me.

If it's a matter of me just closing my eyes and experiencing what I want, then I agree with you. But I don't think that's even the same direction as the VR we are discussing.

Edit: I misunderstood, I thought you were talking about improvements to VR hardware.

However, seeing social networking and VR mesh together — even some hypothetical social networking of the future — seems an odd direction to me. VR is very inhuman in terms of the physical experience, social networking is very brief and notification oriented. I can't see the two a match.

VR is great, I use it and love playing with it. I don't want it to be involved in my social experiences unless it's the following: inviting people around to try cool VR demos while watching what they are experiencing on a large screen, that is fun.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#69

Post by nostromo »

interpol_p wrote: post #46
sillysaurus3 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about the future is that it has a funny way of proving you wrong. I think the vision outlined above is entirely possible. An integrated microphone with surround sound headphones was going to change gamedev forever. Who knows how that would bleed into other types of scenarios than gaming? I'd watch a movie with someone using an Oculus. It'd be a fun experience.

Yes, I think we'll have to see how the next few decades pan out to see whether the future holds more overt computing (VR, stuff stuck to your face) or more subtle computing (in your pocket, information when you need it). My money is on the latter for mainstream, with the former being reserved for a subset entertainment and niche uses. I'd watch a movie with someone using an Oculus, sounds fun. But I can't see it beat…

I think you're exactly right. Look at 3d television: they aren't selling. People don't want to wear glasses just to watch a movie.

Which is why Google is focusing on AR not VR. The use cases for AR seem more immediately obvious and valuable to a mainstream audience.

VR's killer use case is gaming. This is why I'm sad about this acquisition. Zuck's post about VR being the future of social seemed way off base. First, get gaming right, then broaden your vision.

With Sony now in the space, I'm positive we'll get an announcement from Microsoft sooner than later. I'm not a huge MS guy, but to me, they are the company to look toward for getting VR gaming right.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#70

Post by ekianjo »

skore wrote: post #4

For a guy who is otherwise rather easy going, Notch can be incredibly pragmatic and strident. Here, he has cut to heart of the issue. > And I did not chip in ten grand to seed a first investment round to build value for a Facebook acquisition. > Don’t get me wrong, VR is not bad for social. He is right - "social", especially in the way Facebook is doing it at the moment, is terrible for VR. Terrible for any technolog…

> He is right - "social", especially in the way Facebook is doing it at the moment, is terrible for VR. Terrible for any technology that has such an incredible potential to change the world.

It's not just that. VR is not going to be a product that appeals to masses. I don't think it will change the world. It could impact the world of gaming, potentially, and only CERTAIN areas of gaming only.

There are several reasons for that. First, it's a peripheral. You'll need to convince people to buy another 300-400 USD of gear on top of a powerful computer OR a PS4. The PS4 may be winning on the market, but peripherals have a bad History of not selling very well on consoles. Even the Kinect, which sold relatively quite a lot on Xbox360, failed to deliver anything really revolutionary.

For PC gamers, you'll probably need a very powerful graphics card to make full use of it, and we already know that this kind of market is already a small minority in terms of PC users.

There are several issues with VR as well: it's not something you can use to replace the screen completely. You'll probably feel dizzy, nauseous, tired after some time with it. Your eyes will end up hurting. It will work well with cockpit-like simulators (and there aren't many of them left anymore...) but not so well with FPS where camera movements have to be extremely fast. There are other games (3rd person view ones, top view games) where using an Occulus won't really make sense anyway.

As for social applications, I don't know. It's already possible to do videoconference in pretty good quality but few companies actually use it, and still fly people all over the world because they find it works better to have face to face contact to solve issues and discuss projects. I'm not too sure the benefits of VR will outweigh its disadvantages in the everyday world.

And this is coming from someone who badly wants a consumer Rift for gaming.

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