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Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

blog.baugues.com

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Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#61
post #50
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty. I'm guessing you aren't old enough to remember the dot com bust then...

Programmers fell into poverty after the dot com burst? That seems a bit extreme. Lost very high paying jobs, maybe.

I personally knew competent programmers who, a couple of years after, I would describe as living in poverty.

I believe that I am able to judge programming competence, and my bar for labeling poverty is not inaccurate.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#62
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

There's another interesting similarity not discussed in that autoworkers in, say, Wyoming, were pretty thin on the ground and not so well paid. In the Detroit area, sure there was competition and excellent pay. But in rural Wisconsin there was one (of many) rural assembly plants. Pay wasn't awful, but it wasn't as amazing as working in Detroit. And there was "a" plant. You get fired, you better move out of town because there is only one employer (now zero)

In the same way, if you're a software dev, yes, you can get eight times the average salary in two geographic areas where the cost of living is only ten times higher than the rest of the country (LOL). However, outside NYC / SV... pay is still good, although lower, and jobs are Extremely thin on the ground. Your average non-coastal grad is more likely out of the field (UPS, starbucks, unemployed) or at a helpdesk or admin doing non-dev work, not actually slinging code as an actual dev. If the schools insist on slurping out a couple hundred grads a year, and there's only a couple software dev positions total, you do the math. If anything, the concentration is even more intense in software development than it was in automotive manufacturing. GM had a major plant in a podunk city in a podunk county in rural Wisconsin, well, at least until it closed. Wake me when Google, YC, and Facebook open branch offices in rural Sparta Wisconsin.

I believe this is a large part of the lack of interest. 99% of the country desires not to live in SV or Manhattan, therefore the lack of interest in becoming a developer.

I would agree with the legendary enrollment oscillator theory having seen innumerable cycles inside and outside CS. Everyone knows there's infinite demand for new nurse grads everywhere in the country for decades, right? LOL tell that to my cousin's newly graduated wife.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#63
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

Detroit was also sunk by massive pension costs and held hostage by union requirements.

Software has much more creative destruction - the startups of today paying ridiculous figures can go bust tomorrow and wages collapse. That happened after the dot com boom after all.

I do think there will be downward pressure on wages, especially US ones, it just won't be a sudden implosion.

What's interesting is just how expensive US developers are compared to other Western countries. I can see a future of people moving across the Atlantic, especially more established companies that don't need "rockstar ninjas" - although plenty of threads on here about healthcare and government snooping encourage even them to move.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#65
post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

I believe a more accurate analogy would be

helpdesk/admins/sysadmins/support/cable pullers map to factory line workers

vs

software devs map to mechanical engineers

Detroit has always had genius level engineers doing amazing stuff. Totally different issue if any of it is ever allowed out the labs into products, but ...

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#67
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric. > What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply? Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

Stop patting yourself on the back. Seriously . Because obviously, no other job requires critical thinking and learning continually . These are "skills" that are in no way related to programming, and do not explain an inclination towards CS rather than any other science or the myriad of other academic disciplines. And even outside academia, not every job is just that of the "sheeple" who "mindlessly" "slug away" in th…

I share your antipathy for the comment, but not bafflement. How long have you worked in software dev? So many devs are like that.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#68
post #55
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't working then, but from my understanding (might be wrong), it was 'html coders' that had difficulty finding jobs, not actual coders.

I personally knew a number of competent programmers who ran into extreme financial difficulty in that time period. However they didn't like to talk about it then or now, so I can't give names. They were, of course, a drop in the bucket compared to the number of people who had no business calling themselves programmers having trouble. But there were still lots of them. How do I know this? When I went to move from New…

Interesting. I'd never have thought of LA as a tech hub, but it kind of makes sense. Defense and tv/movies are big in LA and they never have recessions.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#69
There are a few good points in this article, but I don't think it's all that insightful overall. A particular developer can be a lot like an auto worker, or they can be very different. The difference is continuous learning.

The trouble with being an auto worker in the heyday of the industry is that, as far as I know, people generally learned a relatively small set of skills early in their career, and then expected to coast along on those skills for their whole life. All skills have a limited lifetime, and in the modern era, that lifetime can be very short indeed. If you got in and out at the right time and handled lifetime investments well, then you could do all right for yourself. If the timing of your one skill being obsolete doesn't work out well for you and you don't do anything about it, then you could find yourself broke and possessing no marketable skills when you were expecting to hit the peak of your career.

In development, I have worked with people who view their career like this. They learned C++/MFC or some other technology stack that's getting rather long in the tooth decades ago, still work in it now, and show no interest in learning or trying anything new. I think these guys are in the same shape as the autoworkers. I think they'll do all right for the foreseeable future, but there's always the risk that the bottom will fall out of the market for the tech stack they know, and then most employers will see them as useless.

There's no need to be like that, though, especially in a time when getting your hands dirty with new technology is so easy. The developer who can do good work in 2 or 3 tech stacks and is always learning more about his main ones and any others that look interesting will always be employable - if one goes dead, you can get a job working in another one, or learn whatever the new one is yourself.

I'd say it generalizes even more. Anybody who has the drive and intelligence to continuously learn new things will always be able to make money. Anybody who wants to learn one thing and coast on that their whole life will always be at risk of losing it all.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While that's true for the autoworker example, it's not true for the lawyer example: The best lawyers produced much more than the normal lawyers. I would put programmers roughly on par with the law industry, not with the auto industry.

Please elaborate. Define "best" in the context of lawyers. Is it a graduate of Harvard Law? Or someone who managed to make partner at a major firm? How do you define output for a lawyer? Billable hours? Cases won? Contracts written?

How do you define "best" for a software developer? Lines of code written? Products shipped? Bugs fixed? Tickets closed?

For both, it's a softer metric. Lawyers are also a good example because a large number of them work in independent consulting practice (where the "best" ones are the most profitable), but there's also a decent population in corporate law where they are paid on a salaried basis and have a less measurable impact on the bottom line.

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