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Fable and the end of the free lunch

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#61

Post by josephg »

r_lee wrote: post #52
geniium wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

imo this is the problem some of these labs are gonna face, because open models will do this just fine and you as the consumer don't need to pay their training costs especially considering imo most use falls under this instead of those kind of tasks where you'd need the SOTA

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#62

Post by lossolo »

rmast wrote: post #57

Most of the things I work on are at least security adjacent. At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards. Maybe Fable can do the same things better than other models, but having to tiptoe around to avoid tripping safeguards makes GPT 5.6 so much easier to work with that I don’t even bother with Fable (or Opus 5) now.

> At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards.

It happens to me all the time with things that have nothing to do with security, Fable spawns a subagent that then adversarially checks the code Fable just wrote and hits guardrails, with zero prompting from me.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#63

Post by a2ff6eeb0 »

josephg wrote: post #61
r_lee wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

imo this is the problem some of these labs are gonna face, because open models will do this just fine and you as the consumer don't need to pay their training costs especially considering imo most use falls under this instead of those kind of tasks where you'd need the SOTA

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#64

Post by adrinavarro »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

I share this feeling too. The latest models, even if not necessarily frontier, say Opus 5, Sol high and the likes, I could keep using these models forever even if they did not significantly improve beyond this point. I also believe we'll come up with new ways of using these very same models beyond the mainstream chat and agent interfaces, as the bottleneck is imho in harnesses/environments and not so much model intelligence anymore.

+1 regarding voice usage too, I use it in so many different ways it's hard to enumerate: while driving long distances (think of a custom made, interactive podcast) / as a way to collaboratively build specs or shape an idea / as a way to provide input while vibe coding / just as a normal voice assistant (straight in the ChatGPT app or as OpenClaw input via telegram voice notes). I can't overstate how much my routines have changed over the last couple of years.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#65

Post by ACCount37 »

poincareball wrote: post #51
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

What "evidence"? Because we keep running out of benchmarks to distinguish frontier model performance. If capabilities are "leveling off", we're not seeing it yet.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#66

Post by ACCount37 »

jml78 wrote: post #30
tyre wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I use Opus for tasks that Sonnet could probably handle, but I'm not hitting my quota. Whatever minor incremental gain is "worth it", since marginal cost is zero. Even now, I use Fable as the planner and coordinator, with it farming out to agents. I don't hit my Fable limits either. Which means I could accomplish more, but these are side projects so I don't need 30x productivity. Still, claude is constantly churn…

I operate mostly in the devops arena. Lots of things opus is fine for. But there is just things where I can hand hold Opus through changes, or I can ask Fable to do it and it gets it right on the first try. People will say let fable plan and validate with opus doing the work. I found that burns fable tokens even faster because opus makes so many mistakes, fable has to review things 4-5 times before opus gets it right…

Yep. Every time you get more intelligence, that buys you more autonomy, more reliability, more task complexity. Tasks done with less mistakes, less handholding, less interventions.

This is what the "good enough" people fail to grasp. There's no "good enough" - unless your tasks are genuinely small scope and will stay that way forever. If not, there are always more gains to extract.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#67

Post by ACCount37 »

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #58
poincareball wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

not an AI researcher - this is probably true for these "everything" LLMs but I think specialized models are gonna be the next big thing

"Specialized models" are a bit of a doozy.

The biggest generalist models beat the most fine-tuned specialists, as a rule. You can bias an LLM away from literature knowledge and towards coding capabilities, but that buys you very little performance, and for too much effort.

Generality and intelligence seem to be entangled very heavily in LLMs.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#68

Post by redox99 »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

Eh. I don't think Luna is good enough. I think that threshold is around Opus / Sol where it can do most of the tasks for me. But I still have many tasks which require either better intelligence or better UI design capabilities.

With how generous subscriptions are, what I actually want is GPT Astra, not cheaper Sol.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#69

Post by TiredOfLife »

pigpop wrote: post #36

Reading this as someone who switched over to ChatGPT after (and largely because of the changes made in) the Fable release, it reads a bit naive. Not only do I find Sol to be as good, if not better than, Fable it is also faster, better behaved and has a much more coherent writing style. You also don't randomly get the Opus downgrade. OpenAI seems to be pulling this off due to their partnership with Cerebras so I would…

The Cerebras version of 5.6 is available only to select customers

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#70

Post by pigpop »

TiredOfLife wrote: post #69
pigpop wrote: post #36

Reading this as someone who switched over to ChatGPT after (and largely because of the changes made in) the Fable release, it reads a bit naive. Not only do I find Sol to be as good, if not better than, Fable it is also faster, better behaved and has a much more coherent writing style. You also don't randomly get the Opus downgrade. OpenAI seems to be pulling this off due to their partnership with Cerebras so I would…

The Cerebras version of 5.6 is available only to select customers

You're right, I should have clarified that they are still slowly integrating it and it isn't the thing running all models. I meant moreso that since they are planning on moving more usage over to Cerebras wafers, they're able to relieve some pressure on their predicted expenses while also moving some current workload (ultrafast and codex spark) onto them freeing up Nvidia GPUs.
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