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Fable and the end of the free lunch

dbreunig.com

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#51

Post by poincareball »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#52

Post by r_lee »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

imo this is the problem some of these labs are gonna face, because open models will do this just fine and you as the consumer don't need to pay their training costs

especially considering imo most use falls under this instead of those kind of tasks where you'd need the SOTA

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#53

Post by mattmanser »

blfr wrote: post #28

What are all these rote coding tasks people do that they can farm it out to lesser models?

Are you genuinely asking?

As 80% of enterprise software is CRUD with a bit of sprinkling of user authorization and tenant customisation. But subtly different for every business domain. It's mainly what properties the models and validations have that are different.

When you add a new module or whatever most of the code you have to write is rote code.

And sonnet can handle that crap just fine, you just point it at a similar example in the code, it picks up your userContext convention, how you're doing i18n, etc. and you're done.

I like saying that enterprise code is often shallow but wide. I must have written at least 4 purchase order systems in my career that are all completely different but almost exactly the same.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#54

Post by r_lee »

pigpop wrote: post #36

Reading this as someone who switched over to ChatGPT after (and largely because of the changes made in) the Fable release, it reads a bit naive. Not only do I find Sol to be as good, if not better than, Fable it is also faster, better behaved and has a much more coherent writing style. You also don't randomly get the Opus downgrade. OpenAI seems to be pulling this off due to their partnership with Cerebras so I would…

Etched is doing this. it seems like in the near future they'll actually ramp up production. not sure how much faster/economical compared to Cerebras but..

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#55

Post by ksh09 »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I'd be content if I could get the DS4 flash, luna, mimo level intelligence running on MY low-end hardware completely offline and bearable TPS, not otherwise.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#56

Post by a2ff6eeb0 »

vineyardmike wrote: post #37
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly; so far, we've only replaced the need to design algorithms and hand-write code; what if we apply the same effort towards the skill needed for system architecture, project management, and the rest of the SDLC? Or even outside of software! Right now, it feels like all of that is today where coding was a year or two ago, and we're on the cusp of some massive improvements outside of coding. It'll be interesting t…

> Or even outside of software! As a software engineer, I selfishly hope that they spend more effort on non software tasks since I’ve feel like we hit a sweet spot where engineers still have some value and autonomy, but a super charged tool. Pragmatically, I suspect that “non software” tasks will be a tarpit because most tasks can’t be automated and verified as easily in an RL loop compared to software projects. Espec…

I suspect the focus will probably shift once software engineering is no longer the biggest cost center for most AI company's clients, and we'll start working on getting rid of the next cost center.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#57

Post by rmast »

Most of the things I work on are at least security adjacent. At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards.

Maybe Fable can do the same things better than other models, but having to tiptoe around to avoid tripping safeguards makes GPT 5.6 so much easier to work with that I don’t even bother with Fable (or Opus 5) now.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#58

Post by bad_haircut72 »

poincareball wrote: post #51
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

not an AI researcher - this is probably true for these "everything" LLMs but I think specialized models are gonna be the next big thing

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#59

Post by nicoburns »

rmast wrote: post #57

Most of the things I work on are at least security adjacent. At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards. Maybe Fable can do the same things better than other models, but having to tiptoe around to avoid tripping safeguards makes GPT 5.6 so much easier to work with that I don’t even bother with Fable (or Opus 5) now.

That's completely valid. But worth noting that most of the stuff I work on is not security adjacent (mostly UI / layout / rendering related), and I almost never run into this.
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