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The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

politico.com

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Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#61

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

spwa4 wrote: post #56
username135 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The litmus test for where a country stands on international issues boils down to a conversation you had with some lads over pints?

What? You want some news links over Ireland's position at the EU about their magnesium and Russian gas imports? What it means is that not only is that the government position, but it's got wide support from Irish people. The position being: no support for Ukraine (only loans), Irish jobs and cheap gas are more important.

Ireland took in an incredibly large number of Ukraine refugees per capita.

The alumina thing is pretty bad, and reflective of Irish peoples relatively confused understanding of geopolitics.

Now do the Greeks ;) one of the big problems with the EU is that it's a collection of national governments who have their own interests. Given that, they've done incredibly well on the Russian stuff.

And btw, Ireland does not have either Russian nor cheap gas.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#62

Post by slillibri »

NhanH wrote: post #38
nx77 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does China or India care if Iran gets nuke as much the US does?

Yes, because that increases the likelihood of Japan, Korea, Ukraine and even Taiwan getting nuke.

Japan, South Korea, Ukraine, and Taiwan are parties to the nonproliferation treaty, like Iran. Oddly, Israel isn’t.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#63

Post by karmakurtisaani »

watwut wrote: post #60
_DeadFred_ wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you miss the 1970s and the impact of Vietnam (that lasted through to the 90s for that generation)? The malaise about American from the 70s through the 80s? The corporate raiders of the 80s and the destruction of so many Americans lives in that period? The rust belt? Many many Americans of older generations losing their pensions because of Wall Street firms bs destruction of companies? The brain drain from the maj…

Why do rust belt and brain drain area supposedly hsrmed by all that keep voting for pro wall street politicians and politics? They also keep voting pro-wars.

Well the current president was very anti-war in his campaign, also wanted to replace Obama care with "something better". I'm not saying the voting population in those areas is stupid, just very gullible.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#64

Post by karmakurtisaani »

nevi-me wrote: post #32
watwut wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People talk politics and want to talk politics here. But, there are groups of people who flag politically uncomfortable stories. And it is systematic. I yes, I read new so I dont buy the neutrality or randomnness of put of topic claims.

I agree with you. When I say they don't want to talk politics, it's more to say that Americans, which I presume makes the most of HN's readership; are embarassed by their political decisions, and would rather censor discussion than accept what the world sees of them and their leaders.

I get this feeling that anyone right-leaning on any smarter corner of the internet is very unwilling to discuss uncomfortable politics. I presume this is largely because for many their political affiliation is emotional rather than rational, so confronting difficult topics is unpleasant and something they'd rather push away by flagging or trolling.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#65

Post by giardini »

ghusto wrote: post #57

> When I asked current and former U.S. officials what had to be done to win Win what? What is even going on? What is anybody (other than Iran, wanting to be left the hell alone) even after anymore? "We're going to make the Straits of Hormuz a US territory?! Are you out of your fucking mind? I mean, obviously yes, but Jesus Christ. On the one hand, I'd love to see the regime in Iran fall, but on the other hand; absolu…

ghusto says:"...'We're going to make the Straits of Hormuz a US territory?! Are you out of your fucking mind? I mean, obviously yes, but Jesus Christ.'

Thank you, finally, a name for our new state in the Mideast: "Jesus Christ"!

The state of Jesus Christ will be the 51st state of the great United States of America and will dominate the Mideast (in coordination with Israel, of course). It will consist of two geographical parts: Kharg Island and the Straits of Hormuz.

It is easy to end the war: drop bunker penetrating nukes on Iran nuclear weapon development sites but blame the explosions on the Iranians' incompetence. The headlines: "Iran made premature and poorly organized attempts to bring (untested and unsafe) nuclear weapons to the surface to hurl against the West/Great Satan. Iran self-destructed by rushing it's nuclear weapons into use without adequate testing." Blah, blah, blah!

3 or 4 "accidents" like this (including one or two in Tehran) should be enough to dissuade the Iranian people from continued support of their nuclear weapons program.

Small nukes with nuclear weapon signature modification are required b/c there are so many nuclear detonation detection locations in the world:

https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/international-monitoring-syst...)

But all this can be done. No magic involved, just good tech!

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#66

Post by penguin_booze »

fifilura wrote: post #10
green_wheel wrote: post #7

It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol

> To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol There are still countries willing to defend democracy out there - Ukraine/Europe/Canada/Japan/S-Korea/Australia. Just not USA.

> Just not USA.

US does whatever the most expedient is. Democracy was the 'flavour of the month' some time ago. Even then, one can only assume it was front to some "friendly" bullying. Now the mask slipped.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#67

Post by zmgsabst »

matusp wrote: post #29
zmgsabst wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you right until the end: This is closer to the end of the Roman Republic — and strange events such as threats against Greenland and Canada can be interpreted in that context as well. That is, we’re not seeing the downfall of the US empire but the downfall of the US republic that will eventually retreat to North America and retrench its position — hence moving Canada and Greenland (and Cuba and…) from inf…

The transformation from Roman republic to Roman empire was mainly about how the top-level government is organized. It was not about the relations with vassals/periphery. The Roman republic was as imperialistic as empire in this regard. In fact, most of the Roman conquering was already done when the republic ended.

Yes — the Roman Empire was in a period of retreat and reformation when it formed.

That’s my point:

The US has neither entered an empire nor the decline post-empire because it gained territorial holdings over the past century — that’s consistent with late stage republics as well.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#68

Post by pseudohadamard »

bell-cot wrote: post #27
green_wheel wrote: post #7

It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol

Your phrasing implies that someone with real authority tried to think it out, and had realistic plans. Vs. I see an angry, frustrated C-in-C, who has maybe a 1-move look ahead, playing out his emotions. Hopefully he is too weak to flip the chess board.

The US military actually knew exactly how it would end, they've been wargaming this scenario for decades. Look up things like Millennium Challenge 2002. The US lost heavily.

They then re-ran the simulation along a script designed to guarantee the US couldn't lose a second time. Unfortunately through some sort of oversight the IRGC were never sent a copy of the script before the current mess.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#69

Post by green_wheel »

bell-cot wrote: post #27
green_wheel wrote: post #7

It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol

Your phrasing implies that someone with real authority tried to think it out, and had realistic plans. Vs. I see an angry, frustrated C-in-C, who has maybe a 1-move look ahead, playing out his emotions. Hopefully he is too weak to flip the chess board.

How so?

"They obviously had no plan..."

How does that imply someone had realistic plansm

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#70

Post by green_wheel »

fifilura wrote: post #10
green_wheel wrote: post #7

It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol

> To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol There are still countries willing to defend democracy out there - Ukraine/Europe/Canada/Japan/S-Korea/Australia. Just not USA.

Do you think any of those countries are going to try or see capable of stopping China from taking Taiwan?
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