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Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

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Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#61

Post by Rendello »

bilater wrote: post #46
lillutoo wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extrapolation leaves you in a world with no agency. Okay, so the models become superintelligent, you're kind of fucked at that point and there's no value you as a human can add so that reality isn't really productive to think about. The only thing we can do is look at the current state of things, and we still have the same problems we've always had with these models, they need proper direction and input.

That is the question, and it does f** with me. But the existential nihilism that comes with it is not an argument against it not happening.

I've been thinking about this quote a lot:

> [...] we are living in a society [that is out] virtually to satisfy and gratify each and every human need, except for one need, the most basic and fundamental need operant in man, the need for meaning.

https://youtu.be/GTbliwS0gS4?t=153

Maybe the Amish had it right, after all.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#62

Post by jmoggr »

AngryData wrote: post #54
bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

Is there demand for 10000 iq intellegence to fund its construction if we already have +100 iq AI? You are assuming there will be demand that scales as fast as technology can to fund its continued fast pace development.

> Is there demand for 10000 iq intellegence

Yes. If it looks like 10000 iq is possible, then money will be thrown at whoever is most likely to achieve it first, and whoever has the most intelligent models right now strongly predicts who will be first.

This is driven by the belief that whoever gets to 10000 iq first will likely dominate the majority of all economic activity, since it will be more efficient to trade with them than with some less efficient (dumber).

This does not depend on traditional economic demand, at some point this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#63

Post by pron »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

> I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating.

I guess it's a matter of education. People with a mathematics or computer science background know that unless the dynamics of a process are known to be linear, extrapolation is usually wrong. Since we don't know that the dynamics here are linear and have every reason to believe they aren't, extrpolation is unlikely to teach us anything valuable.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#64

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

prakharjain wrote: post #15

I was earlier of the belief, Oh my god, now nothing is impossible. Ai can market, ai can create video, ai can sell, i can build and make a great product. we will win. I realized all this was quite wrong, AI just helps people who already know become more efficient. It just gives confidence to people who dont know anything by the sycophantic nature of AI. AI is just a tool for smart people to become smarter. Love AI an…

Thus far, this has been my general experience as well. There are things that it can do under my supervision, but badly if I don't know enough to correct well enough and catch it when it makes mistakes. And it still often does. The question is typically whether I pay enough attention to notice.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#65

Post by bilater »

hootz wrote: post #59
bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

My nephew grew 7 cm in one year and 10 cm in another, so by 2040 he will be 4 meters tall!

woa your nephew lives inside a height-optimization machine that gets redesigned every few months (weeks), learns from every growth chart on Earth, and keeps proving it can grow faster?

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#66

Post by bilater »

the__alchemist wrote: post #55
bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

I encourage you to do research on extrapolation as a general concept. Not a deep dive, but to explore its general utility and limitations as a tool. I also encourage you to explore what metrics you use when evaluating the utility and impacts of LLMs.

I encourage you to use your imagination once in a while.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#67

Post by _se »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

It literally is just next word prediction. If you don't understand that, everything else you're thinking and saying is based on an incorrect foundation.

Take a step back and really take a look at what's going on. You are not thinking clearly.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#68

Post by jmoggr »

encomiast wrote: post #57
bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

> ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? Maybe this is tongue-in-cheek, but in case it's not. No, nobody does. Consider that a person in their lifetime could have seen the Wright Brothers first flight in 1903, then the first jet engine in 1939, then commercial jet travel in the 1950s. That is an amazing 50 years for air travel. If you were living in 1950 and we…

I think it's credible to believe that that a system which is able to meaningfully improve it's own intelligence will lead to a far weirder world than the one imagined by the article.

The parent comment could be interpreted as frustration from a lack of imagination about how weird the future could be.

Perhaps we're not at the recursive self improvement yet, but it seems increasingly naive to believe that it isn't possible.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#69

Post by Rendello »

pm90 wrote: post #22

Normies just don’t understand what all is involved in running and evolving a production system. They think all programmers do is write code. Of course they believe that AI could replace programmers. My in laws smugly asked me what I would be doing for work since AI would take away all the programming jobs and I said its not gonna happen and they laughed in derision.

> they laughed in derision

It's crazy how defensive (offensive) people can get when you're into programming/math/whatever. Almost like "I don't understand your world, I don't want to, and I hate it and hope you fail".

https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/what-its-like

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#70

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

PedroBatista wrote: post #13
ttoinou wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automating a job is toxic now ?

It can be. Because most automations never capture the complete scope of the job/task ( not even close ). Just like neurons, if you don't use it you lose it and when the inevitable problems come, nobody knows the why, the how and the what. At that point someone smart would incorporate all those real costs and opportunity loses on the "automating everything" equation. But they usually don't. Of course automating tasks…

Management likes to think otherwise for a variety of reasons and peons such as myself know it is rarely that simple. Case in point, our team uses Jira, but Jira is not great at.. capturing efforts that are umm.. less code oriented. In fact, there are times when it is genuinely better to leave some details out for considerations that may simply not be part of coding considerations.

In other words, automation assumes proper capture of the entirety of the task, but, I have seldom seen it capturing anything but simple workflows well.

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