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Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

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Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#51

Post by skydhash »

bilater wrote: post #44
apsurd wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but you’re just on the other end doing the same thing. one end is luddites nothing to see here, and the other end is omg humanity is cooked because programming is solved! and consciousness is coding so -> gg yes there’s a wide surface of emergent behavior we haven’t fully explored, but why do you get the pass to draw a straight line to a conclusion? the naysayers are doing the same thing.

At least I have trends backing up my claim. What precedent is there for saying, "Yeah, AI has kept getting better, and keeps doing things that we thought it would never be able to do, but now I think it’s going to plateau because I just can’t see the model writing good poetry or being smart enough to make determinsitic tool calls" or whatever?

Most people are not against AI getting better per se. They’re about AI boosters not able to prove their outlandish claims.

We’ve seen a lot of claims over the years substituting one metric (amount of code written) for another (useful code produced) to justify that AI are getting “better”. We just want a proper definition of better.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#52

Post by tangenter »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

[flagged]

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#53

Post by skydhash »

ttoinou wrote: post #35
PedroBatista wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can be. Because most automations never capture the complete scope of the job/task ( not even close ). Just like neurons, if you don't use it you lose it and when the inevitable problems come, nobody knows the why, the how and the what. At that point someone smart would incorporate all those real costs and opportunity loses on the "automating everything" equation. But they usually don't. Of course automating tasks…

I agree with that, and that’s why it’s better to ask an AI and improve your prompt, instead of hiring a human that will disappear and you will loose all institutional knowledge

The risk of hiring a hunan is easy enough to manage. Ensure that the process is documented and new hires are trained. Any disturbance by someone leavingg is then smoothed out in the long term.

Can you show us how it’s better to use an AI to ensure steadiness over a long period of time?

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#54

Post by AngryData »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

Is there demand for 10000 iq intellegence to fund its construction if we already have +100 iq AI? You are assuming there will be demand that scales as fast as technology can to fund its continued fast pace development.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#55

Post by the__alchemist »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

I encourage you to do research on extrapolation as a general concept. Not a deep dive, but to explore its general utility and limitations as a tool. I also encourage you to explore what metrics you use when evaluating the utility and impacts of LLMs.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#57

Post by encomiast »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

> ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going?

Maybe this is tongue-in-cheek, but in case it's not.

No, nobody does. Consider that a person in their lifetime could have seen the Wright Brothers first flight in 1903, then the first jet engine in 1939, then commercial jet travel in the 1950s. That is an amazing 50 years for air travel. If you were living in 1950 and were to extrapolate where air travel would be by 2026, you would think we would be taking routine trips to Mars. Instead what we got was TSA, cramped seats, and better safety. But "progress" leveled off dramatically. Commercial air flight has looked pretty much the same for my entire life.

We have no idea how far transformers and LLMs will take us. It certainly isn't obvious where this is going.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#58

Post by rpdillon »

apsurd wrote: post #47
bilater wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least I have trends backing up my claim. What precedent is there for saying, "Yeah, AI has kept getting better, and keeps doing things that we thought it would never be able to do, but now I think it’s going to plateau because I just can’t see the model writing good poetry or being smart enough to make determinsitic tool calls" or whatever?

it doesn’t have to be that deep or specific. all things decay on a curve. pretty much all things in life are not modeled by a straight line. so you’re saying no theres still more UP. sure, but that’s a tale as old as time. when where and how much in how long is the reality piece.

We still have far to go. You can tell by the pace if improvement in so many dimensions. If the popcorn's popping had started slowing down, I might believe you, but instead it's speeding up.

Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things

#59

Post by hootz »

bilater wrote: post #30

I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…

My nephew grew 7 cm in one year and 10 cm in another, so by 2040 he will be 4 meters tall!
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