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Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

reuters.com

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Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#61

Post by gpm »

elzbardico wrote: post #47
riku_iki wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> rich people just buying rooftop solar systems, which exacerbated the grid problems even more. how it exacerbated problems exactly?..

Because storage is incredibly expensive and thus, for every GW of installed solar capacity you need and an exact another GW reserve capacity from other sources for the rare times when the sun doesn't shine (like, for example, during the night or during large spells of bad weather). Besides being intermittent, solar and wind are not really dispatchable, that is, the grid operator doesn't have many levers to control th…

This is all true except for the fact that storage is not incredibly expensive anymore, which invalidates every single conclusion you reach. Storage is now reasonably affordable, and the trend suggests it will soon be incredibly cheap.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#62

Post by kryogen1c »

londons_explore wrote: post #58
elzbardico wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because storage is incredibly expensive and thus, for every GW of installed solar capacity you need and an exact another GW reserve capacity from other sources for the rare times when the sun doesn't shine (like, for example, during the night or during large spells of bad weather). Besides being intermittent, solar and wind are not really dispatchable, that is, the grid operator doesn't have many levers to control th…

All these problems become solved if you have realtime market pricing. Nobody would bother to install rooftop solar if daytime power was super cheap on every sunny day, yet expensive at night when their solar isn't working.

Wouldn't this model price out poor people? Doesn't that mean the most vulnerable people cant afford the services when they need them most, ie max hot/cold?

Changing the utility to a market sort of defeats the point of trying to optimize the utility.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#63

Post by AngryData »

SoftTalker wrote: post #7
pfdietz wrote: post #3

What this shows is solar is increasingly threatening the electric utility business model. Even without net metering, demand destruction will cause the traditional model to stop working.

Most people aren’t interested in being responsible for their own electrical generation. Especially with payback still being on the order of decades

A lot of people in my area are interested and it would be a net positive for them long term, but the area is poor so few can afford the initial costs despite knowing the money they would ultimately be saving.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#64

Post by tibbydudeza »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #54
neebz wrote: post #30

We switched to solar in 2021 expecting a 3.5-year payback. Electricity prices rose so fast that we recovered the investment in under two years. Also the national grid is notorious for it's frequent blackouts (load-shedding) since the early ’90s. Solar allowed us to have uninterrupted supply in the mornings and longer backups during night.

Rough location (if you feel comfortable sharing ground truth)?

South Africa - load shedding is a curse word here :).

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#65

Post by tibbydudeza »

abdullahkhalids wrote: post #6

I would encourage people to go look at satellite view of random "rich" neighbourhoods in Pakistan, and note how many solar panels there are on rooftops. Here is the first one I scrolled to in Lahore [1], and one in Karachi [2] Pakistan's grid prices tripled or more since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, because the extremely mismanaged and poorly designed electricity system+economy could not handle the energy pri…

Price of Chinese PV panels and inverters and batteries have dropped so much and there has been financing schemes available where you get the installation for free and pay per usage cheaper than what the utility company charges and it is more realiable.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#66

Post by toomuchtodo »

tibbydudeza wrote: post #64
toomuchtodo wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rough location (if you feel comfortable sharing ground truth)?

South Africa - load shedding is a curse word here :).

Great to hear about the fast payback period, wishing you reliable power :)

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#67

Post by londons_explore »

kryogen1c wrote: post #62
londons_explore wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All these problems become solved if you have realtime market pricing. Nobody would bother to install rooftop solar if daytime power was super cheap on every sunny day, yet expensive at night when their solar isn't working.

Wouldn't this model price out poor people? Doesn't that mean the most vulnerable people cant afford the services when they need them most, ie max hot/cold? Changing the utility to a market sort of defeats the point of trying to optimize the utility.

A typical user still pays the same on average in a market.

Just they might pay more in some hours and less in others.

Some market systems have gotten bad press over huge bills (eg. Texas), but that only happens when only a small chunk of users participate in the market, whilst others are on fixed pricing and therefore don't care about usage.

When everyone participates, supply and demand make sure the price never goes super high, simply because there are enough people who will turn off stuff to save money.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#68

Post by kragen »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #66
tibbydudeza wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Africa - load shedding is a curse word here :).

Great to hear about the fast payback period, wishing you reliable power :)

tibbydudeza didn't post about a fast payback period. Maybe neebz is his wife?

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#69

Post by kragen »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #55
PunchyHamster wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if the same solar also had enough battery capacity, sure. But they do not, they still need to buy at out of solar peak and that just causes problems for both sides. I think grid should start moving into selling storage as a service. Just put a bunch of bulk storage at every transformer station and buy solar from consumers at solar peak, sell them back say 80% of it (or whatever margin is required to pay for it) off p…

LFP chemistries are approaching ~$50/kWh, and CATL's sodium chemistry is supposed to be ~$40/kWh (per CATL); soon it will be more expensive to ship the battery storage than the storage itself. "Watershed moment:" Big battery storage prices hit record low in China auction - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44504630 - July 2025 (4 comments) IEA: The battery industry has entered a new phase - https://www.iea.org/com…

Currently "Sodium Battery Cell" is priced at US$50–70/kWh on the Shanghai Metals Market, which gives every appearance of being a real thing: https://www.metal.com/en/markets/43. They list LFP batteries currently at US$38–52/kWh: https://www.metal.com/en/markets/42

I think you may be dramatically overestimating how much container shipping costs.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#70

Post by phreeza »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #54
neebz wrote: post #30

We switched to solar in 2021 expecting a 3.5-year payback. Electricity prices rose so fast that we recovered the investment in under two years. Also the national grid is notorious for it's frequent blackouts (load-shedding) since the early ’90s. Solar allowed us to have uninterrupted supply in the mornings and longer backups during night.

Rough location (if you feel comfortable sharing ground truth)?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43622584
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