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The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

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Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#61

The idea that there's a global cabal of ultra-wealthy real-estate owners who have globally conspired to control people to go back to the office holds about as much weight in my mind as the idea that there's a global cabal of ultra-wealthy who have globally conspired to create a virus to control the population. Covid was an outlier event, and the outcomes that occurred as a result of it will revert to the mean over ti…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

What you’re describing is a cognitive bias.

https://centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/tabletop-exerci...

You can believe COVID happened however you want — but it’s documented reality that the elites practiced exactly the authoritarian response they used mere months before the virus outbreak.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset

Similarly, those same elites wrote a book about how they want to use the authoritarian measures they implemented during COVID as a gateway to imposing their vision on society. Again, documented reality.

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#62
I prefer...both? I like having regular interactions with colleagues, I also like being able to have the time to be by myself at home and think. Perhaps there might be a 9 months on, 3 months off rotation, similarly to when you're in school. Spend the summer at home, working, thinking, reporting, maybe not as intensely as during the rest of the year, and then the colder months at the office collaborating, socializing. It would offer a nice break and a different kind of rhythm to life. Just a thought.

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#63

I’ve heard this argument before and I don’t buy it. By that, I mean it may be true (that people want to prop up real estate prices), but I don’t think that this is enough of an explanation. If it were just about real estate, then Amazon would not be calling for 5 days a week return-to-office. I don’t think real estate interests are powerful enough to push Amazon around and I don’t think they’re entrenched enough in A…

A significant majority of the total wealth in the US is in real estate (~$90T of ~$150T). Most of that is residential, but about a third of it is commercial. So about 10-20% of the total wealth in the US is in the form of commercial real estate, a significant amount of which is offices or office-adjacent-services that lose value if offices are not occupied.

Is there a metric like PPP for real estate ? It might be a reality check for wealth vis-à-vis other nations.

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#64
It kind of makes sense, if you consider real-estate. When remote is possible, people will no longer flock to expensive city centers or highly populated areas(except rich young singles with big pay grades seeking entertainment), which means less rent revenue for expensive commercial residential properties in such areas. Additionally, it also means less human traffic causing a ripple effect on the nearby businesses(less people at coffee shops, restaurants, bars, grocers etc).

Also, as a self-preferred hybrid, I often go to office 3-4 days weekly and I see more goofing off and also get pulled into goofing off by peer pressure(c'mon, lets have a cup of coffee, you such work-a-holic, there is tomorrow blah blah), because people will definitely take a 30-60mt coffee break after each meeting, compounding to around ~1.5-2h (if we do not consider meetings as work) effective productivity.

Lets take lunch break at office, first grouping with peers starts 15-20mt before everyone is ready and heading out to canteen or restaurant depending on the mood and then taking a long walk afterwards because everyone is sleepy after meal. Coming back, some will still feel sleepy and spend another 30mt on coffee sipping and gossips and then walk to a meeting.

Compared to my work at home, I get decent min. 4h concentrated work. Additionally, I can focus on other stuff(debugging, reviews, experiments) in background without coming off as rude, while a meeting takes place that does not directly need my input immediately. Same meeting at office means I am either super bored and sleepy and others are mostly scrolling their FB/TikTok under the table while some random people get into nerdy arguments with another someone who suggested a bad design or a manager gets at the neck of another team's manager because they can't align on the coordination or responsibility distribution correctly.

One benefit of in-person office days is, when I have a problem, I can walk up to my peer and get a clarification immeidately, while at home, they might set their status to do-not-disturb or would cite some other meetings where they are just sitting around listening to blah blah and tell me to come back later. Other than that, I do not see any immense benefits. The bonding/cultural stuff are anyways enforced by corporate team events and parties and what not and in EU, people do not often socialize personally with colleages outside work unless they were childhood friends or live in same house.

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#66
I just don't see a compelling argument here.

So either

a) The company that is ordering workers back to office owns the property - then they get absolutely no financial gains from it, because they need to pay for the office space in any case.

or

b) They rent the office. In this case, they get financial gains from renting less space and keeping workers at home.

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would agree, but... Didn't we just see a giant string of mass layoffs in spite of excellent company performance for no apparent reason besides investors wanted them? I rarely believe in conspiracies, but mindless group-think is very real.

> no apparent reason besides investors wanted them? If investors want it, I don’t see why any other reason would be necessary, ever, to explain a company’s behavior.

Yeah, that's why the comment you are responding to makes no sense. "Investors believe they can get the same amount of revenue with fewer expenses" - is that supposed to be some sort of "group think"???

Not to mention that the proposition of "for no apparent reason" is total BS to begin with. There was a ton of over-hiring during the pandemic for an expected long-term change in consumer demand that never materialized. Plus, lots of people just fundamentally don't understand how rising interest rates make many projects uneconomic. If your company is chugging along making, say, 4% return on capital, that may be fine in the ZIRP era, but when treasuries are paying north of 5% it means it makes more economic sense to close down the company and put your cash into government bonds. That's a bit of an oversimplification but not by much. Rising interest rates fundamentally mean there is a higher bar for getting ROI.

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#69

The idea that there's a global cabal of ultra-wealthy real-estate owners who have globally conspired to control people to go back to the office holds about as much weight in my mind as the idea that there's a global cabal of ultra-wealthy who have globally conspired to create a virus to control the population. Covid was an outlier event, and the outcomes that occurred as a result of it will revert to the mean over ti…

Aside from conspiracy theories, remote working was already a thing before Covid, Covid just accelerated the process and showed to everyone that it worked. IMHO what we are now seeing is a "counter-revolution", an attempt to get the genie back into the bottle, and those are mostly doomed to fail...

Re: The war on remote work has nothing to do with productivity

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A significant majority of the total wealth in the US is in real estate (~$90T of ~$150T). Most of that is residential, but about a third of it is commercial. So about 10-20% of the total wealth in the US is in the form of commercial real estate, a significant amount of which is offices or office-adjacent-services that lose value if offices are not occupied.

Is there a metric like PPP for real estate ? It might be a reality check for wealth vis-à-vis other nations.

I think cap rates are a decent proxy for that kind of thing, and they're not too bad recently in commercial office space, as far as I can tell. It seems that office buildings are selling at a discount to what they were a few years ago. But I suspect that many buildings have not yet changed hands, and thus have debt based on their old values.

I wonder how many underwater office buildings there are in the US right now, and who owns their commercial paper?

Edit: looks like about half of all office mortgages are underwater. Welp, there it is.

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