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Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

arstechnica.com

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Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#61

Post by tekla »

Symmetry wrote: post #56
FireBeyond wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Atlas V has absolutely nothing to do with the launch delay. The "brand new space vehicle" is the Starliner. > that there were two serious issues with Starliner. One of these involved the "soft links" in the lines that connect the Starliner capsule to its parachutes, and the second problem came with hundreds of feet of P-213 glass cloth tape inside the spacecraft

Atlas V is also a ULA rather than a Boeing rocket. I'd be much more eager to trust my life to a ULA space vehicle than a Boeing one.

ULA is half Boeing

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#62

Post by tekla »

FireBeyond wrote: post #46
briffle wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!" > But even that is not enough: Ars doubles down, and now NASA's refusal to provide a concrete updated launch date means not only is it "[slipping] into 2024", but apparently almost to 2025: A few month delay? It was originally supposed to fly in 2017. with Crews in 2020.

And SpaceX Crew-1 was originally supposed to fly in November 2016, and was then delayed a year, and then another two years, and then another year, finally flying in November 2020.

It was delayed the same amount of time as Starliner initially. Now Dragon is operational, and Starliner still isn't done with the final design/assembly of it.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#63

Post by legitster »

krisoft wrote: post #44
FireBeyond wrote: post #28

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

> I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!" The hubub is not about the few more months of delay just anounced. The starliner and the dragon 2 started development around the same time to deliver about the same thing. The first crewed dragon 2 launched in 16 November 2020. It is not about the months of delay, but the years.

SpaceX is the only organization in the industry that prioritizes speed. For the regulators and the other players, they are all pretty happy to do things at their own pace and speed.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#64

Post by FireBeyond »

tekla wrote: post #59
FireBeyond wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be nice to see some of that skepticism applied to Crew-1, when it slipped 4 years, but Ars treated SpaceX announcements as gospel truth. Hell, the launch article for Crew-1 ( https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/weather-permitting-t... ) literally did not once mention that that launch was delayed, let alone 3 separate year+ delays. Just about SpaceX "saving" NASA from "wandering around in the wilderness with…

Except Crew-1 Happened in 2020, Staliner-1 has been delayed until probably late 2023, 2024. Demo-1 Happened before OFT-1. They both started at similar times and also their delayed missions were delayed by similar amounts initially. By all accounts, Starliner is behind is every possible way with much greater funding than SpaceX. SpaceX is at Crew 7, Starliner isn't even close to Starliner-1

> By all accounts, Starliner is behind is every possible way with much greater funding than SpaceX.

That's only true if you assume SpaceX strictly allocated budgets per program and that no revenue from their other missions have gone to the crewed flight programs.

I'm not saying Spaceliner is a success, or that there are arguments to be made about each company's approach (you could argue that while Boeing's approach seems relatively glacial, Boeing also has far fewer smoking craters and damaged barges than SpaceX).

None of that removes the fairly evident bias that Ars can be counted on to spin anything SpaceX in a positive manner (a la ignoring years of delays to talk of SpaceX saving the day for NASA, while a refusal to commit to a launch date following a just discovered issue for Boeing immediately implies more years of delays).

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#65

Post by kolinko »

dylan604 wrote: post #45
dotnet00 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They still can use cutting off the ISS as a bargaining chip since half the station is Russian and handles orbit raising. They actually did do that a lot early into the war, until Rogozin was replaced as head of Roscosmos by someone who took a slightly less bombastic approach of saying that Russia would quit the ISS once they have a successor station up later this decade. What gets in the way is that the US has severa…

Isn't it the Russian modules that keep leaking atmosphere? Maybe its time to jettison them? I honestly have no idea what the Russian modules are or what purposes are are served by them. However, that does bring to mind something I never thought about. There is talk of privatizing ISS since NASA doesn't want to continue funding it. How do you privatize something made by multiple nations? Or is that precisely why the p…

One of the purposes of ISS, and other space programs (Apollo-Soyuz for example) was showcasing how nations can work together, and bringing hope for peace during the cold war. May sound naive, but that's the reason why nobody should be jettisoned off the space station - even if there are embargoes on the ground.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#66

Post by ktpecot »

FireBeyond wrote: post #51
ktpecot wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Starliner was originally contracted to be certified in 2017. So a few month slip on top of the 5+ year slip already maybe justifies some of the skepticism from ARS

Would be nice to see some of that skepticism applied to Crew-1, when it slipped 4 years, but Ars treated SpaceX announcements as gospel truth. Hell, the launch article for Crew-1 ( https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/weather-permitting-t... ) literally did not once mention that that launch was delayed, let alone 3 separate year+ delays. Just about SpaceX "saving" NASA from "wandering around in the wilderness with…

Given that starliner is still not operational and the situation in Russia the description seems pretty on point to me?

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#67

Post by bradyd »

Animats wrote: post #54

There's no market. Private manned launches have been on Space-X's price list for years. Anybody buy one yet?

Yes, they've had 3 so far and have at least 4 more planned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon_2#Crew_Dragon_fl...

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#68

Post by FireBeyond »

Symmetry wrote: post #56
FireBeyond wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Atlas V has absolutely nothing to do with the launch delay. The "brand new space vehicle" is the Starliner. > that there were two serious issues with Starliner. One of these involved the "soft links" in the lines that connect the Starliner capsule to its parachutes, and the second problem came with hundreds of feet of P-213 glass cloth tape inside the spacecraft

Atlas V is also a ULA rather than a Boeing rocket. I'd be much more eager to trust my life to a ULA space vehicle than a Boeing one.

> trust my life to a ULA space vehicle than a Boeing one

So it gets 50% of your trust, then?

> The company, which is a joint venture between Lockheed Martin Space and Boeing Defense, Space & Security, was formed in December 2006.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#69

Post by dylan604 »

kolinko wrote: post #65
dylan604 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it the Russian modules that keep leaking atmosphere? Maybe its time to jettison them? I honestly have no idea what the Russian modules are or what purposes are are served by them. However, that does bring to mind something I never thought about. There is talk of privatizing ISS since NASA doesn't want to continue funding it. How do you privatize something made by multiple nations? Or is that precisely why the p…

One of the purposes of ISS, and other space programs (Apollo-Soyuz for example) was showcasing how nations can work together, and bringing hope for peace during the cold war. May sound naive, but that's the reason why nobody should be jettisoned off the space station - even if there are embargoes on the ground.

[flagged]

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#70

Post by Retric »

ceejayoz wrote: post #60
Retric wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re skipping over the bit where “After analysis and corrective actions it was launched on May 19, 2022, and completed a successful mission to the ISS, clearing the way for the crewed flight test.” They had an initial failure, and 1 delayed but successful mission. The 3rd mission is again delayed, that’s fairly normal for manned spacecraft. Rocket science is hard, news at 11…

The second mission had to be added due to the first's failures. ( https://spacenews.com/boeing-to-fly-second-starliner-uncrewe... ) It wasn't originally in the schedule. (SpaceX, by comparison, flew crew on their second test flight.) And again, Starliner's third attempt is now indefinitely delayed for a rebuild of critical systems. "largely delays in funding not just the actual program" is simply not the truth.

SpaceX’s dragon had test failures slow things doing remember this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scz-fFZT-dI

> is simply not the truth.

Funding represents significantly more than 4 years of delays, just using their initial announcement date let alone when funding was actually provided. That’s just simple math.

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