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Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

arstechnica.com

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Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#41

Post by twiddling »

nordsieck wrote: post #17
radicaldreamer wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They would never get another space contract again if they did that, but they can see this will be a larger market in 30 years, so they'll lick their wounds and continue on commercial space projects.

> They would never get another space contract again if they did that People say that, but I don't think it's true. Boeing pulled out of the Phantom Express project seemingly unscathed. https://www.space.com/boeing-withdraws-darpa-military-space-...

Depends on how good their lobbyists are.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#42

Post by briffle »

FireBeyond wrote: post #28

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

> I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!"

> But even that is not enough: Ars doubles down, and now NASA's refusal to provide a concrete updated launch date means not only is it "[slipping] into 2024", but apparently almost to 2025:

A few month delay? It was originally supposed to fly in 2017. with Crews in 2020.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#43

Post by ktpecot »

FireBeyond wrote: post #28

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

Well Starliner was originally contracted to be certified in 2017. So a few month slip on top of the 5+ year slip already maybe justifies some of the skepticism from ARS

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#44

Post by krisoft »

FireBeyond wrote: post #28

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

> I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!"

The hubub is not about the few more months of delay just anounced.

The starliner and the dragon 2 started development around the same time to deliver about the same thing. The first crewed dragon 2 launched in 16 November 2020. It is not about the months of delay, but the years.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#45

Post by dylan604 »

dotnet00 wrote: post #39
Laremere wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment hits differently after the Ukraine invasion. I hadn't thought about the sheer level of diplomatic nightmare that has been avoided because Russia can't use cutting off access to the ISS as a bargaining chip.

They still can use cutting off the ISS as a bargaining chip since half the station is Russian and handles orbit raising. They actually did do that a lot early into the war, until Rogozin was replaced as head of Roscosmos by someone who took a slightly less bombastic approach of saying that Russia would quit the ISS once they have a successor station up later this decade. What gets in the way is that the US has severa…

Isn't it the Russian modules that keep leaking atmosphere? Maybe its time to jettison them? I honestly have no idea what the Russian modules are or what purposes are are served by them.

However, that does bring to mind something I never thought about. There is talk of privatizing ISS since NASA doesn't want to continue funding it. How do you privatize something made by multiple nations? Or is that precisely why the privatization isn't taken seriously?

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#46

Post by FireBeyond »

briffle wrote: post #42
FireBeyond wrote: post #28

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

> I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!" > But even that is not enough: Ars doubles down, and now NASA's refusal to provide a concrete updated launch date means not only is it "[slipping] into 2024", but apparently almost to 2025: A few month delay? It was originally supposed to fly in 2017. with Crews in 2020.

And SpaceX Crew-1 was originally supposed to fly in November 2016, and was then delayed a year, and then another two years, and then another year, finally flying in November 2020.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#47

Post by imglorp »

FireBeyond wrote: post #36
adolph wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > Such an answer suggests that Starliner's launch on an Atlas V rocket ... may very well slip into 2024. > I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!" Atlas V . . . is America's longest-serving active rocket. In August 2021, ULA announced that Atlas V would be retired, and all 29 remaining launches had been sold.[ As of 10 November 2022, 19 launches remain. https://en.wikipedi…

The Atlas V has absolutely nothing to do with the launch delay. The "brand new space vehicle" is the Starliner. > that there were two serious issues with Starliner. One of these involved the "soft links" in the lines that connect the Starliner capsule to its parachutes, and the second problem came with hundreds of feet of P-213 glass cloth tape inside the spacecraft

July CST-100 issues, announced right before a CREWed mission:

    * parachute "load limit data wasn’t correct and restest showed failure at a loading point"
    * wiring tape "flammable and will need to be replaced"
    * thrusters again: "Boeing also found more valve problems on the Crewed Flight Test capsule, as they were getting ready to load propellants onboard."
These are all serious human safety issues; any could be fatal. If I worked at NASA, I'd ask for gold plated resolution of these before an astronaut goes near CST-100.

source: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/06/twis-20230602/#more-...

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#48

Post by acchow »

SOLAR_FIELDS wrote: post #5

> Because Starliner was funded by NASA through a fixed-price contract, as part of the Commercial Crew program, Boeing is responsible for any cost overruns and financial losses due to delays. Given Boeing’s history here this feels like the right kind of contract for this sort of work. Ensures all incentives are aligned

Wish municipal contracts could be done this way

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#49

Post by ragebol »

arcticbull wrote: post #2

Lost, or invested? One imagines if they outright lost it and saw no opportunity to recoup (i.e. no longer an investment) they'd just end the program.

For that investment to work, they need to bring in some revenue as well. The ISS is scheduled to retire by 2030. Let's assume this capsule goes operational in 2025 and flies twice a year, that's 10 flights to recoup well, well over a billion by then. Let's say a 100 million per flight. Not sure what the contract is exactly, but it's not looking great.

Pretty sure SpaceX is cheaper, so NASA will be the only customer.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#50

Post by Retric »

krisoft wrote: post #44
FireBeyond wrote: post #28

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

> I mean, a few month delay on a brand new space vehicle isn't "OMG, Boeing failed!" The hubub is not about the few more months of delay just anounced. The starliner and the dragon 2 started development around the same time to deliver about the same thing. The first crewed dragon 2 launched in 16 November 2020. It is not about the months of delay, but the years.

Those were largely delays in funding (4+ years) not just the actual program. “In July 2010, Boeing stated that the capsule could be operational as early as 2015 with sufficient near-term approvals and funding.”

“On September 16, 2014, NASA chose Boeing (Starliner) and SpaceX (Crew Dragon) as the two companies to be funded to develop systems to transport U.S. government crews to and from the International Space Station.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner

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