A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago • Hacker News Board

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#61

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:41 AM UTC

DeathArrow wrote: post #60

pid-1 wrote: post #44

My company has seen quite a few sell side analysts talking about SVB earlier this year, so I guess the risks were not unknown to financial markets. Problem is, we are in a scenario of great macroeconomic uncertainty. That can make borrowing costs (needed for shorting something) quite high, because everyone and their moms want to protect themselves from market downturns. So even if you guess correctly that some compan…

In the case you short a bank, why not borrow the money from the same bank?

> why not borrow the money from the same bank?

That loan is the bank’s asset. It doesn’t go away when the bank collapses.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#62

Post by smcl » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:42 AM UTC

DeathArrow wrote: post #58

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, I'd believe the conspiracy theory that Cramer saying something public is a secret signal to those in the know.

I am not from US, what is the story? Does that guy consistently make bad predictions?

I don’t know if he consistently made bad predictions, but he had a few howlers during the 2008 global financial crisis. He very loudly declared on his TV show that Bear Sterns was safe on the eve of its collapse: https://youtu.be/V9EbPxTm5_s

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#63

Post by DeathArrow » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:43 AM UTC

I wonder if the pie has been cooked enough and there aren't other vulnerable banks in the same position. Also I wonder if massive short selling most banks now doesn't make them trip over.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#64

Post by smcl » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:46 AM UTC

DeathArrow wrote: post #57

raverbashing wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145 Hopefully it's not too omnious

Thanks, I will short JP Morgan ASAP.

I don’t think what you should take from this is “always do the opposite of what Cramer says”. Rather that you should not consult him at all when you’re deciding how to invest your money.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#65

Post by skmurphy » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:47 AM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #48

Bleecker Street Research, of course, has made out quite nicely from the demise of Silicon Valley Bank (The team won’t comment on how much they made off their short bet). How much could it be? 60-70%? That is how much the stock fell. The problem with these kind of stories is you don't hear about all the times these firms sold short and or were wrong or lost lots of money before eventually being right and would have be…

Regulators took over SVB: trading was halted. It's unlikely stockholders will get more than a few cents per share so it's a 99.9% drop. The story was interesting because they explained how the bank got into such a bad situation that regulators had to take it over.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#66

Post by jb1991 » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:49 AM UTC

smcl wrote: post #62

DeathArrow wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not from US, what is the story? Does that guy consistently make bad predictions?

I don’t know if he consistently made bad predictions, but he had a few howlers during the 2008 global financial crisis. He very loudly declared on his TV show that Bear Sterns was safe on the eve of its collapse: https://youtu.be/V9EbPxTm5_s

Don’t forget about all the accolades he left on Facebook stock before it had its massive crash.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#67

Post by smcl » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:55 AM UTC

jb1991 wrote: post #66

smcl wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if he consistently made bad predictions, but he had a few howlers during the 2008 global financial crisis. He very loudly declared on his TV show that Bear Sterns was safe on the eve of its collapse: https://youtu.be/V9EbPxTm5_s

Don’t forget about all the accolades he left on Facebook stock before it had its massive crash.

Oh yeah there's definitely plenty more than I mentioned. But I just wanted to highlight that his reputation as this sort of accidental Grim Reaper of companies originated in the GFC back in 07/08

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#68

Post by lolc » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:58 AM UTC

zwirbl wrote: post #52

koolba wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what do you when Cramer suggests buying the Inverse Cramer ETF?

I guess GTFO

Right, when you get out before the Inverse Cramer ETF gets to short itself, no? After that it should be priced in.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#69

Post by expertentipp » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:59 AM UTC

koolba wrote: post #38

cassonmars wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always Inverse Cramer

But what do you when Cramer suggests buying the Inverse Cramer ETF?

I guess the financial sector understands recursion, with all the intellectual prowess it employs?

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#70

Post by a_techwriter_00 » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:59 AM UTC

DeathArrow wrote: post #58

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, I'd believe the conspiracy theory that Cramer saying something public is a secret signal to those in the know.

I am not from US, what is the story? Does that guy consistently make bad predictions?

It's something of a meme to say talk about shorting what he recommends his viewers buy. Sometimes people will come up with data showing that if you did that over such-and-such a period you'd be up like 50%, but I don't think that's necessarily worse than anyone would do if they had to pick stocks on national TV every day.