A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago • Hacker News Board

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#51

Post by rlt » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 8:48 AM UTC

cormacrelf wrote: post #18

didgetmaster wrote: post #7

I couldn't find anywhere in the article where it gave an amount of the short position. Did this guy bet the farm on it? If so, he deserves praise (and the returns) for his insight. If, on the other hand, this was just one of dozens (or hundreds) of small short positions his fund invested in, then not so much. Anyone can bet small amounts all over the roulette table and then only tell their friends about the ones that…

Says the commenter in a community for a startup ecosystem where the big money throws a million bucks at a hundred different projects and hails themselves as genius world leaders when one of them doesn’t fail. And where publishing a detailed investment case to be criticised on later is not the norm.

HN isn’t a monolith. VCs certainly have the benefit of diversification, but founders generally don’t.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#52

Post by zwirbl » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 8:57 AM UTC

koolba wrote: post #38

cassonmars wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always Inverse Cramer

But what do you when Cramer suggests buying the Inverse Cramer ETF?

I guess GTFO

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#53

Post by raverbashing » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 8:58 AM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #17

mike_d wrote: post #5

This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937

At this point, I'd believe the conspiracy theory that Cramer saying something public is a secret signal to those in the know.

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145

Hopefully it's not too omnious

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#54

Post by kqr » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:13 AM UTC

mym1990 wrote: post #49

kqr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is it more interesting than the reasoning of the losers? I'm tempted to say the losers' reasoning is more interesting. A winner's reasoning could be completely unrelated to the event at hand and we'd never know the difference. A loser's reasoning is definitely wrong in some way, so we can learn something from it.

Generally yes, that’s how engineers figured out where to reinforce war planes so they could survive longer in battle. In markets the loser’s reasoning often comes down to poor timing. They see similar red flags but can’t quite catch the right time. Predicting markets is relatively straightforward, predicting when something will happen is infinitely harder :)

I take issue with the characterisation of "poor timing" which makes it sound like a matter of accurately predicting an event occurring at some instant in time. Failure to do that teaches us comparatively little, much like failure to win the lottery.

In reality, it's about picking a position that one can hold through various trajectories and that is profitable in most of the more likely ones. If one has assessed the actual trajectory at a lower probability than reasonable, that's still something we can learn from.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#55

Post by DrBazza » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:23 AM UTC

mahkeiro wrote: post #25

cassonmars wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always Inverse Cramer

https://www.getquantbase.com/partners/inverse_cramer

"14.39% return"

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#56

Post by _the_inflator » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:25 AM UTC

mahkeiro wrote: post #25

cassonmars wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always Inverse Cramer

https://www.getquantbase.com/partners/inverse_cramer

This is hilarious and extremely sad at the same time.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#57

Post by DeathArrow » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:32 AM UTC

raverbashing wrote: post #53

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, I'd believe the conspiracy theory that Cramer saying something public is a secret signal to those in the know.

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145 Hopefully it's not too omnious

Thanks, I will short JP Morgan ASAP.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#58

Post by DeathArrow » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:33 AM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #17

mike_d wrote: post #5

This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937

At this point, I'd believe the conspiracy theory that Cramer saying something public is a secret signal to those in the know.

I am not from US, what is the story? Does that guy consistently make bad predictions?

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#59

Post by supernova87a » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:35 AM UTC

Isn't the question though, if you acted on the set of companies/banks that were showing these signs, how often would you be right and saved your money (or made money)?

The analyses that tell you what led to a particular crash are hard to stomach as a reliable bet for the next time.

I just saw this story: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230310718/20-...

("20 banks that are sitting on huge potential securities losses—as was SVB")

Would you short Ally right now? Hard to make such a bet.

Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago

#60

Post by DeathArrow » Sat, Mar 11, 2023, 9:40 AM UTC

pid-1 wrote: post #44

My company has seen quite a few sell side analysts talking about SVB earlier this year, so I guess the risks were not unknown to financial markets. Problem is, we are in a scenario of great macroeconomic uncertainty. That can make borrowing costs (needed for shorting something) quite high, because everyone and their moms want to protect themselves from market downturns. So even if you guess correctly that some compan…

In the case you short a bank, why not borrow the money from the same bank?