Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#61

Post by theluketaylor » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:28 PM UTC

BoorishBears wrote: post #32

MelvinButtsESQ wrote: post #19

Production of batteries is the constraint ... previously, currently, and in foreseeable future ( Further, given this capacity, the numbers work out such that we are, on the macro level, DRASTICALLY more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly by putting more hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids (which have fewer batteries) on the road than we are by reserving said batteries for fewer pure EVs. 2.5 Priuses are better than…

The 2nd Gen Chevy Volt was the Model 3 we deserved, but couldn't appreciate. 40-50 miles EV range meant that most people would have an EV most of the time, and use gas only on one off trips. And while people 10 years behind on ICE advancements would immediately start yelling about dragging around a dead weight ICE all day, modern ICEs are incredibly light, efficient, and reliable in the type of application the Volt h…

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI.

The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powertrains really eats a lot of interior space. Pure BEVs can have some impressive packaging with a truly impressive amount of leg room and spaces to shove tons of stuff. My parents love their Volt, but there is no denying it's a very tight squeeze and even with the hatch there is not a lot of space in there not taken up by batteries and engine.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#62

Post by throw0101a » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:28 PM UTC

nkingsy wrote: post #30

bildung wrote: post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

I wonder if these arguments take into account decreased battery life with a smaller battery in a plug in hybrid. From what I know about li-ion, the larger battery should expect many more charge cycles before degradation than the smaller one, given the same power draw. There would have to be some kind of argument that the bigger battery leaves capacity on the table during its life somehow, which would mean the battery…

> I wonder if these arguments take into account decreased battery life with a smaller battery in a plug in hybrid.

I would think that it would be primarily a function of how much of the battery is treated as a 'reserve'. If you have 10-20% set aside that is not "useable", regardless of total capacity, then you could get similar cycles.

There's also the possibility for using super-caps taking some of the brunt for high discharge (2-4s) events which could help with longevity. How expensive are they for these type of use case?

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#63

Post by seph-reed » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:29 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #54

seph-reed wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hope liquid democracy can someday become a thing. The fact that an idea can be both good and unpopular is -- IMO -- the linchpin of almost every other problem we face.

> an idea can be both good and unpopular communism is a good idea, but it's unpopular, for a reason i say. The reason for the idea of taxing externalities being unpopular isn't really proven yet - after all, it hasn't been instated, but just spoken about, and the silent majority don't have an opinion!

I should note, that I don't think massive political shifts should be tested in production.

So whether communism is a good idea or not remains to be seen. We need to run a solid pilot, get the as many kinks out as possible, and then assess.

Similar with taxing damages to Earth.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#64

Post by ianai » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:29 PM UTC

How hard is it to concentrate hydrogen down post-production to where the Mirai/another FCV could use it? I ask, because I at least understand it's possible to separate hydrogen out of water relatively easily once you've got the water.

(More and more, the ocean seems like a huge resource we're not tapping: the most lithium reserves on earth, pulling carbon out of it (for sequestration), and potential hydrogen source just off the top.)

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#65

Post by bushbaba » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:31 PM UTC

To be fair. A Chevy volt can be more environmentally friendly than a Tesla.

Most people don’t drive more than 50 miles per day. Pushing for hybrids with 50-75 mile range might do more for emissions than pushing everyone to EV convert.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/are-chevy-...

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#66

Post by NathanielK » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:33 PM UTC

nkingsy wrote: post #30

bildung wrote: post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

I wonder if these arguments take into account decreased battery life with a smaller battery in a plug in hybrid. From what I know about li-ion, the larger battery should expect many more charge cycles before degradation than the smaller one, given the same power draw. There would have to be some kind of argument that the bigger battery leaves capacity on the table during its life somehow, which would mean the battery…

It really depends on the battery technology. Lithium-Titanate batteries are starting to be used in hybrid vehicle powertrains.

It is much lower energy density than typical BEV batteries. It is also rated at 20x the cycles and can be charged and discharged very quickly with minimal issues.

The technology has come a long way from the NiMH cells that die after a decade.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#67

Post by paholg » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:35 PM UTC

seph-reed wrote: post #42

eloff wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general I agree with you. Simply taxing things with negative externalities enough to cover the true cost would simply and conclusively fix a lot of things we struggle with, faster and without relying on politicians. I think it's politically very unpopular, but the economic theory behind it is extremely sound.

I really hope liquid democracy can someday become a thing. The fact that an idea can be both good and unpopular is -- IMO -- the linchpin of almost every other problem we face.

Even worse, some ideas are both good and popular, and politicians still don't get behind them.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#68

Post by tmotwu » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:35 PM UTC

NoblePublius wrote: post #52

This is about distribution. Toyotas are sold through dealers. Dealers make little money on selling cars and lots of money fixing them. The Prius appeals to eco concious drivers (who don’t mind that their car drives like a dishwasher) but also appeals to dealers because it needs oil changes, radiator flushed, and frequent brake changes. Full EVs require almost no maintenance so Toyota dealers lack any incentive to mar…

As someone who spends their time maintaining every aspect of my cars (oil, brakes, bearings, everything), Toyotas were by far the easiest, simplest, cheapest, most reliable and longest lasting. What a weak point to make about Tesla over Toyota.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#69

Post by specialist » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:35 PM UTC

Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity.

--

Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. Specifically non-gaseous, before anyone has a spaz attack. We know! Storage, transportation, distribution of H2 is not practical.

Plasma Kinetics' has a light activated fuel cell. https://plasmakinetics.com There are many other nanomaterial research efforts. Like consumable silicas and reusable graphenes. Am less than noob, so can't guess which notions have most potential.

Pay attention to the technology maturation lifecycle. Solid hydrogen today is maybe comparable to Li-ion in 2005.

Imagine we hit "peak" Li-ion around 2030, producing 75 tWh annually. (Amazing, right?)

That'd buy us some time to develop solid hydrogen, which will hopefully be shipping in actual products by then. And hopefully address use cases and applications poorly served by Li-ion. Like trucking, rail, maritime, whatever.

Remove any remaining excuses for the die-hard fossil fuel hold outs.

--

Toyota just got the timing wrong. And maybe they were too optimistic about H2.

Trying to hold back EV is a dick move. Pisses me off.

Not having a portfolio of technology platforms, something to span the gap from hybrids to hydrogen, was just incompetent.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#70

Post by trixie_ » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:37 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #44

The Japanese car companies have done pretty poorly in the 2010's in supporting the energy transition. Toyota has been extremely slow to adapt after the Prius, which makes sense because of their ridiculously large volume of sales of basic, gas-efficient passenger vehicles. I give Toyota big props for the Prius, which was the original Green Vehicle 15-20 years ago, and still is a HUGE player in the efficiency space. II…

They've got some weird obsession with hydrogen.. even recently I've seen a lot of online advertising for their hydrogen vehicle the Mirai which is wildly impractical in the US and probably anywhere else.